Erick Erickson's Blog, page 86

I Bet You This Hurts Romney

If you haven't heard yet, in Saturday night's debate wherein a former Nixon Administration staffer and a Clinton Administration apparatchik un-ironically asked questions to Republicans pretending to be without bias (though Diane Sawyer was on cough syrup or something and it showed), Mitt Romney bet Rick Perry $10,000.00 that Romney had not changed something in his book.

Some Republicans are beating their chests over this claiming the Republicans critical of Romney are falling into Democrat like class warfare.

We are not. We're just noting it is tacky.

To be fair, had Romney bet Rick Perry ten dollars, the media would be pointing out he could have bet ten thousand. The point, however, is that to offer the bet to a man who grew up without indoor plumbing and whose wife has to work to help pay their kids' way through college is more than a bit tacky.

Further, it reaffirms a Democratic narrative about Mitt Romney that he is a graceless rich guy who has nothing in common with common people.

Common people may bet something, but it comes in one of three varieties:

I bet you X happens with no value attached, which is a common figure of speech;
I bet you X happens with a hyperbolic value attached like a billion dollars or winning Iowa, which is often used to highlight the preposterous claim being bet against; or,
I bet you X happens with a reasonable monetary sum, which highlights the reasonableness of both claims and a dispute.

For a rich guy $10,000.00 is not hyperbolic, but for a poor guy it is. It is, in and of itself, rather classless for Romney to do and now the Democrats and plenty of Republicans will seize on it as just another example of how out of touch he is.

But frankly, I think the point everyone is missing is that Mitt Romney's campaign has reaffirmed Romney's bet to Rick Perry. They are serious and this raises a serious problem that feeds into a pre-existing perception of Mitt Romney.

Mormons do not bet. So now it seems Romney is even willing to treat his faith lightly for personal, political advance.

The Conservative Fight of the Year Goes On

The Tea Party has lined up strongly in favor of Senator Ron Johnson in against Establishment- favorite Roy Blunt for in the race Vice Chairman of the Senate Republican Conference. This race could be very close. Sen. Johnson has locked up the support from all of the conservative heroes in the Senate. Marco Rubio, Kelly Ayotte, Tom Coburn, Jim DeMint, Rand Paul, David Vitter, and Mike Lee are publicly supporting Johnson. Florida Senate hopeful Adam Hasner has followed Sen. Rubio in publicly supporting Sen. Johnson.

House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan has endorsed Senator Johnson, an unusual step for a House Member in a Senate Leadership election.

Tea Party Patriots linked to my earlier post in support of Sen. Johnson on their facebook page.

Freedomworks has launched an action alert supporting Sen. Johnson

"The position of Vice Chairman holds critical sway over the policies pursued by Senate Republicans and electing Senator Johnson is a HUGE opportunity for the Tea Party to build a stronger voice in the U.S. Senate."

Brent Bozell's For America has alerted their online activists to support Senator Johnson.

"Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin is the clear choice for conservatives as he has been a commanding voice for conservatives within the Republican Party."

The Madison Project endorsed Sen. Johnson with a strong statement from Drew Ryun.

"He is one of those great conservative Senators joining with Jim DeMint from South Carolina on a lot of important fights in the Senate, some in the public, some behind closed doors.

Citizens United issued a strong statement to their members:.

"Voters sent a clear message last year that they wanted to shake up Congress and not rely on the failed status quo," said David N. Bossie, President of Citizens United. "Republican Senators would be heeding this message by putting freshman Senator Ron Johnson in a leadership position. Americans expect fresh ideas and new faces leading in Congress because the old guard has failed to lead when it matters the most. What the Senate needs most is real leadership and Ron Johnson is the Senator for the job. "

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel called it an "outsider vs. insider race". This means those of us on the outside need to step up and make our views known, or the insiders will win, as they usually do. Johnson is the first Tea Party Senator to run for Leadership, and if he wins it will give us a powerful voice in the room.

Call your Republican Senators now 202-224-3121 and tell them to support Senator Johnson. If both of your Senators are Democrats, call Senators from other states.

Morning Briefing for December 12, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

December 12, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

Hey folks, two quick notes from me before we get into today's Briefing.

First, please note the very first story. Identity politics is inherently not conservative because identity politics, a favorite of the left, assumes that all people of a common identity must behave collectively the same way and when some do not conform they must be punished. Here we have a supposedly conservative gay group seeking retribution against someone for going off their identity reservation. I'll have more on this story later too. But for now, can we just declare the great conservative experiment of pretending GOProud is actually conservative over? Thank God CPAC resolved this issue.

Second, if you haven't yet, please consider going here and voting for Ben Howe, one of our front page contributors. He's in the running to get his own radio show, but needs some votes. You will have to register with the site and then click the "LIKE" button on his page. But it would be awesome to get another RedState front pager on the air. Please help him if you can.

Thanks,

Erick

1. GOProud's Outing of Rick Perry Pollster Tony Fabrizio Backfires, Outs Them Instead

2. The Conservative Fight of the Year Goes On

3. The GOP Payroll Tax Cut/UI Extension Proposal

4. North America's Energy Bounty, By the Numbers

5. Team Romney's pointless reach-out to the Leftist press.

6. When Did the EPA Jump the Shark?

7.

8. Sending Mixed Messages, Obama's NLRB Drops Wrongful Prosecution of Boeing

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1. GOProud's Outing of Rick Perry Pollster Tony Fabrizio Backfires, Outs Them Instead

Earlier this week, Governor Perry released a campaign ad which contained a line about gays being able to serve in the military, but children not being allowed to pray in schools. The theme of the ad was ending President Obama's 'war on religion.' It was, of course, met with the usual and expected responses from various quarters. I'm not going to defend nor bash the ad; it's neither here nor there to me. What I found most disturbing, and most telling, was GOProud's reprehensible, bullying and bigoted response to the ad.

A report surfaced that Governor Perry's Chief Pollster, Tony Fabrizio, was opposed to the ad. GOProud jumped on that and ran all the way to Vileville with it, exposing their belief that all gay people must think the same way. Granted I'm one of those icky breeders, but I'm fairly certain that gay people are, you know, individuals. With thoughts and beliefs of their very own. Not so, according to GOProud! Stray too far, and we will shame you into lockstep! You see, in the midst of a stompy foot temper tantrum, GOProud's true colors came out – and the colors are so not fabulous.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. The Conservative Fight of the Year Goes On

The Tea Party has lined up strongly in favor of Senator Ron Johnson in against Establishment- favorite Roy Blunt for in the race Vice Chairman of the Senate Republican Conference. This race could be very close. Sen. Johnson has locked up the support from all of the conservative heroes in the Senate. Marco Rubio, Kelly Ayotte, Tom Coburn, Jim DeMint, Rand Paul, David Vitter, and Mike Lee are publicly supporting Johnson. Florida Senate hopeful Adam Hasner has followed Sen. Rubio in publicly supporting Sen. Johnson.

House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan has endorsed Senator Johnson, an unusual step for a House Member in a Senate Leadership election.

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel called it an "outsider vs. insider race". This means those of us on the outside need to step up and make our views known, or the insiders will win, as they usually do. Johnson is the first Tea Party Senator to run for Leadership, and if he wins it will give us a powerful voice in the room.

Call your Republican Senators now 202-224-3121 and tell them to support Senator Johnson. If both of your Senators are Democrats, call Senators from other states.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. The GOP Payroll Tax Cut/UI Extension Proposal

On Friday, House Republican leaders unveiled their package deal to extend the payroll tax and unemployment benefits for another year and to continue Medicare 'doc fix' for another two years.

While bipartisan passage of the payroll tax cut and doc fix were a forgone conclusion, the real issues for conservatives were the UI extension and the spending cuts. Unfortunately, they are acquiescing to another extension, albeit with some reforms.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. North America's Energy Bounty, By the Numbers

On Tuesday, the Institute for Energy Research issued its North American Energy Inventory (.pdf link), a report which documents the government's own estimates of oil, natural gas and coal resources for the U.S., Canada and Mexico. (The IER is a non-profit, non-partisan 501(c)3 organization that is dedicated to advancing America's supply using free market principles.)

In a nutshell, North America contains a vast bounty of energy sources in the form of oil, natural gas and coal. Reports that we are "running out" of energy sources use semantics and terminology to play with the facts. Simply put, we have chosen not to exploit potential sources close to home, finding it more expedient or convenient to depend on faraway sources for our energy.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. Team Romney's pointless reach-out to the Leftist press.

Background: Matt Lewis noted with no little bemusement that some folks working for Team Romney had a conference call where folks from organizations from the table below were invited and were given the opportunity to ask questions, while "Townhall.com, HotAir, Daily Caller, Washington Examiner, National Review, Weekly Standard, American Spectator, or Washington Times" got left out in the cold. Ed Morrissey over at Hot Air was willing enough to note that they didn't give an invite… and I'll chime in that – as far as I know – neither did RedState. Which doesn't surprise me in the slightest, given that Team Romney apparently… well. I will be nice.

But never mind that. Conference calls are often themselves tools of a Lower power, anyway. Instead, let's look again at who got invited, and who got to ask Team Romney questions.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

6. When Did the EPA Jump the Shark?

Iron Eyes Cody cried at the sight of polluted waters and skies in a famous public service announcement, first aired in 1971. Old Iron Eyes may have been a faux-Indian, but his message resonated with people. The Crying Indian PSA was one of the most successful ever.

It resonated because it was true. In the early '70s, the environment was a mess. Urban skies were noticeably tinged in sepia/grey. Rivers and streams were often clogged with discarded debris and fouled with chemical sludge.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

7.

Today, under the guise of making the rich "pay their fair share(!)," there is a global movement for worldwide taxation that is being pushed by the likes of George Soros, Al Gore, Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, European Socialists, as well as union bosses (and just about every other Marxist group you can imagine). However, unless Americans realize the effort and its ultimate ends, some day soon, we may wake up under the thumbs of global bureaucrats demanding that all Americans pay their "fair share" to a global tax collector—an international IRS, if you will.

8. Sending Mixed Messages, Obama's NLRB Drops Wrongful Prosecution of Boeing

Following the ratification of a new Seattle-area contract between Boeing and its largest union, the International Association of Machinists, eight months of the union extremists running Barack Obama's National Labor Relations Board wrongfully prosecuting Boeing offcially and quietly comes to an end.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

Nikki Haley Intends to Govern

The legislature and Governor in South Carolina have had a rather fractious relationship for the past decade. The Governor during that period has typically broken up the good old boy network and actually fought to reduce government in South Carolina and privatize what could be privatized.

Well, recently there's been a port expansion issue affecting Georgia and South Carolina. Georgia wants to deepen the Savannah River to expand the port in Savannah to accept new ships coming through the Panama Canal. The good old boys in South Carolina wanted their backs scratched to get things done.

It didn't work out that way. Neither the Governor nor the agencies responsible for getting the good old boys' their backs scratched actually did it. Georgia gets to dredge and South Carolina will get a port expansion in Charleston, but it will still take a while.

The good old boys decided then to haul all of Governor Haley's top aides into the legislature for examination. They couldn't find that anyone did any wrong doing. And now Governor Haley has responded. She means to keep changing South Carolina, keep moving the state forward, and keep making it place where business is free to do business without scratching backs or letting government pick winners or losers.

This Conor Guy Just Wanted to Slam Limbaugh, Right?

That Conor guy at the Atlantic felt the need to slam Limbaugh and in the process claim there is some sort of fight between Limbaugh and others on the right. But there's a bit of a problem with him dragging me into this fight he wants to pick.

He uses a Limbaugh monologue about the GOP establishment attacking Newt as the kick off.

The conservative movement, and I mean this from bottom of my large beating heart — ba-boom, ba-boom, ba-boom — the conservative movement is made up of me, talk radio, the Tea Party and the American people who are conservative. A conservative movement made up of movement media people, there hasn't been that since Mr. Buckley passed away.

And then the guy writes, "When I last aired that quote, I should've added that this "challenge their bonifides, not their arguments" approach has always been a self-serving dodge. Yes, there's karmic justice in seeing Coulter and Erickson subjected to it. But they've both articulated earnest concerns about a man who could be president."

First, I should point off that I heard Rush's monologue and the post Conor lumps in to Rush's monologue as Rush taking issue with me was written after Rush's monologue.

Second, I largely agree with Limbaugh. Had Conor actually delved into my post he'd see that while I have concerns with Newt, I'd rather be with him than Romney.

Third, I would note that Rush lists "talk radio" as being on the conservative side. I write this as I fill in for Neal Boortz on his syndicated show, taking a break from my own talk radio show.

Fourth, I'm pretty comfortable, though I haven't chatted with him about it, that Rush was not slamming Coulter, me, or several others Conor thinks Rush was slamming. Why? Because in the whole of the Rush Limbaugh monologue he was largely focused on the people trotting out the gnostic Washington knowledge about Newt — the Washington insiders lined up with Romney who have come out against Gingrich claiming to have prior knowledge of Gingrich that they may or may not reveal to hurt Gingrich. That definitionally rules out Ann and me.

Conor used to pretend to be a conservative. I'm not sure if he still does. But it seems pretty clear in his attempts to cover the conservative movement he spends as much time inserting his wishful thinking into what he writes as he does misinterpreting facts.

First They Attack Him for Opposing Tax Increases. Now They Attack Him For This?

Yesterday the Romney camp sent John Sununu out to attack Newt Gingrich for opposing the George H. W. Bush tax deal.

Today, the Romney Super PAC is attacking Newt Gingrich for supporting the individual mandate.

Yes, the same mandate Mitt Romney supports.

So is the Romney team admitting the individual mandate is bad? And if so, why is Romney still supporting it?

We want these people to fight Obama? Geez.

Morning Briefing for December 9, 2011

RedState Morning Briefing

For December 9, 2011

Go to www.RedStateMB.com to get
the Morning Briefing every morning at no charge.

I'm filling in for Neal Boortz today from 8:30 am to 1pm ET. You can call in at 1-877-310-2100. We'll be delving into a lot of Presidential politics. Listen live right here on the WSB Radio live stream.

1. This Is It!

2. Defeat That Omnibus!

3. Unaccountable and Unacceptable: Fast and Furious and the Incompetent Administration

4. Gingrich: Is his rise sustainable?

5. Romney Camp Attacks Newt Gingrich For Opposing George H. W. Bush's Tax Increase

6. Is Lisa Jackson Looking to Get Back at Barack Obama?

7. CT Gov Schemes With SEIU To Unionize Day Care Providers & Others Without A Vote

———————————————————————-

1. This Is It!

Folks, below is a note from our front page writer Ben Howe. He needs your help to get a radio show. Let's help him out. — Erick

So its come down to this moment. RedState readers and my friends on Twitter have helped me make it through round 1 & 2 of the Next Talker contest to win my own radio show on the 50,000 watt radio juggernaut that is WBT which on clear nights can be heard in 22 states.

I am so thankful to everyone that has helped me get this far and no matter what happens next, I'll be eternally grateful.

But, as I'm sure you've guessed, this ain't over yet. We are now in the final round of voting for the contest. Voting has been reset (which means even if you were awesome enough to vote for me before, I need you to do so again) and the competition is stiff.

As of this writing, I sit in 3rd place (out of the final 5) behind Ladd Lesh who sports 76 votes and Bobby Demuro who has a whopping 127 votes. I have a respectable 66 votes and need your help to take the lead.

What I'm asking is a pain in the butt, I'll grant you that. WBT decided to make it so people had to actually join their website in order to pick the Next Talker. Great for preventing cheating, but certainly a roadblock to getting anyone other than family and close friends to vote for you.

However, in the last round, a great many of you did anyway. Please click here and "like" my entry.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

2. Defeat That Omnibus!

It is still inexplicable to me why Republicans should violate their pledge against passing an Omnibus, in order to meet an artificial deadline set by those who never passed a budget.

Democrats were too incompetent to pass a budget, even while they controlled all branches of government, thereby creating a need to pass the budget through a series of continuing resolutions. Now that Republicans control the House, and have a real budget on the table, Democrats have conveniently become disdainful of CRs. They have also undergone a cathartic conversion to meeting budget deadlines.

At this point, the big-government statists in both parties know that the only way for conservatives to fight for any semblance of the House budget – both in terms of spending levels and policy riders – is to drag out the process beyond December 16. Conservatives would be able to force Senate Democrats to pass the remaining nine spending bills one at a time. This would give House conservatives the leverage to amend each bill and force Democrats into defending embarrassing spending bills, which fund unpopular laws and agencies, on nine separate occasions. In plain English, this is exactly how the budget process is supposed to work, pursuant to the 1974 Budget Act.

"Oh, but it is already so late in the year," cries Democrats, and oddly, Republican leaders. Well, dummies, whose fault is that? We passed our budget on time. Now you want to come in late and subvert the process under the guise of budget tardiness?

Please click here for the rest of the post.

3. Unaccountable and Unacceptable: Fast and Furious and the Incompetent Administration

Today, Obama's top lawyer takes the stand. But in the eyes of the American people, Attorney General Eric Holder has already been found guilty.

Holder is testifying before Congress about his role in Operation Fast and Furious— the failed federal gun-trafficking sting that resulted in the death of a border patrol agent and the loss of more than 1,400 weapons to Mexican drug cartels.

When he testified on the scandal last month, Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley pointedly asked, "Who will be held accountable?"

If Holder has his way, no one.

It's all terribly symptomatic of the outrageous bureaucratic incompetence plaguing the Obama administration.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

4. Gingrich: Is his rise sustainable?

Candidates for office aren't always well known at first. This difference in name recognition can distort early polling, which is why in this Republican Presidential primary race I keep watching approval ratings for clues.

So my personal find today of Gallup's Positive Intensity Score tracker I think is worth a look, especially as we consider whether Newt Gingrich's lead is here to stay.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

5. Romney Camp Attacks Newt Gingrich For Opposing George H. W. Bush's Tax Increase

Let's step into the Way Back Machine and go all the way back to 1990.

That year, George H. W. Bush decided to break his "no new taxes" pledge. You remember, "Read my lips," don't you?

Well, at the time Newt Gingrich was the Minority Whip of the United States House of Representatives. He was not the leader of the Republicans. He was the number two guy. And he initially said he'd support the deal, but twelve hours later, no doubt after consulting his colleagues, he decided to oppose the deal.

The deal, by the way, was made between George H. W. Bush and the Democrats. Newt was not exactly a consequential figure in the dealings largely because he was the number two man in a small minority, all of whom could have voted against the deal and it still would have passed.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

6. Is Lisa Jackson Looking to Get Back at Barack Obama?

As Obama moves closer to his perception of the center, he moves further from the environmental base that had placed their hopes and dreams in him. Over the summer, he ended up in a heated battle with Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) chief Lisa Jackson over a proposed Ozone rule that he was set to weaken against her wishes. According to the New York Times, it was not pretty.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

7. CT Gov Schemes With SEIU To Unionize Day Care Providers & Others Without A Vote

Connecticut's union-bought governor, Daniel Malloy, is apparently scheming with the SEIU to unionize his state's daycare providers and personal care attendants through a secret plan using the flawed method of card-check unionization.

By stripping individuals of their right to vote on whether or not to unionize, Malloy is virtually guaranteeing money (paid by taxpayers) will go into his SEIU cronies' pockets.

According to Raising Hale's Zach Janowski, Malloy has created "working groups" through executive order that will "guide the unionization" over the next year.

Please click here for the rest of the post.

The Presidential Run Down & Fast and Furious #EERS

I'll get into the horse race and Fast & Furious tonight on the show.

You can call in at 800-WSB-TALK.

Listen live right here on the WSB live stream.

The show runs from 7pm ET to 10pm ET.

Consider this an open thread.

Let's Not Persecute Gays, But Christians? Meh.

Rick Perry is getting all sorts of fire for his ad mentioning gays in the military and kids not being able to pray in school. The left and the libertarian leaning poseurs are all out in force attacking Perry and that ad with a "prove it."

Well . . .

We all know about the report of the Obama Administration saying it will check to see what countries are doing on the gay rights front to make sure gays are not being persecuted. But at the same time the Obama Administration has decided to not reauthorize the bipartisan U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom.

The Commission investigates religious liberty issues around the world and informs the State Department about nations persecuting people because of religion, including Christians.

In other words, we're going to start checking up on how countries treat gays and lesbians, but Obama wants to shut down the Commission that investigates how countries treat citizens who believe in God.

The President has until December 16, 2011, to reauthorize the Commission and thus far the Commission members say the President has no plans to reauthorize it.

I guess Rick Perry gets another commercial out of this issue.

The Horserace for December 8, 2011

We are less than a month from the Iowa Caucuses. As we wind the clock down I think it is important to note that the 2012 campaign season might present the most damning indictment yet of the ineptness of political reporting about the Republican campaign season.

Since November of 2010, political reporters in this nation have been telling us Mitt Romney would be the nominee. And while I completely agree and have said I expect it, the political reporters in this nation have routinely, and I am beginning to think intentionally, failed to report on what I think is and remains the biggest story this campaign season.

The man who should be the front runner and who should be walking away with the nomination has had since March of 2008 to lock down his lead as the Republican nominee and less than one month from the start of Campaign 2012, 80% of Republican voters want nothing to do with him and a third would rather go to the fight with a retread from the Clinton era than Mitt Romney.

For months and months the media establishment in Washington and New York has avoided this story even though since August of 2012 Mitt Romney has never been the front runner for more than a few days between the implosions and rises of the various alternatives to him.

Only now the media is beginning to tell the story and even now the media focus is more on what Mitt Romney needs to do than what Mitt Romney did wrong. Even more humorously, when the media does go for "what went wrong," they cannot help themselves but fixate on Mormonism when poll after poll shows Mitt Romney's faith will be more a weight on him with independent voters than Republican primary voters.

There is another story too as we get to the Horserace this week. It is on the failure of the professional political class in Washington, D.C. The professional political class has failed Mitt Romney, Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, Jon Huntsman, and the list goes on. Sure, when God serves up a lemon of a candidate, there is only so much a consultant can do. But very few have successfully made lemonade with any of the candidates. Even with Gingrich, his rise has more to do with his debate performances than his consultants.

These two stories — the failure of the political press to get the stories right and the failure of the political consultant class to get the candidates right — are not written about enough. And both impact the horserace for 2012. And the muddied stories of both these problems may interweave directly to a brokered convention. I think it is time to move beyond wishful thinking and take seriously the idea of having a brokered convention with someone other than the current crop of candidates becoming the nominee. And that, for the first time, adds a new candidate to this week's horserace, Mr. None of the Above.

Michele Bachmann

Michele Bachmann's campaign has a shot at a bounce in Iowa. But I think it will be more a dead cat bounce. Her campaign is over. She does not have the funds to carry on nor does she have the message to carry on. Her campaign is overshadowed. While the people of Iowa love her and could give her a life line, it would amount more to not pulling the plug than going on and letting the campaign die gracefully.

Newt Gingrich

For all intents and purposes Newt Gingrich is the nominee. His lead in the early states and late states is so dominant that he could run the boards. And yet no one is prepared to call him the nominee and not just because the voting hasn't started. The voters backing Newt and every other candidate out there are still rather lukewarm to them all. Support is shallow.

Newt now has to withstand four weeks of nonstop attacks from the other candidates and the press. We'll hear about the women, we'll hear about the back room deals, and we'll hear about his betrayal of conservatives.

Anyone who reads Tom Coburn's book Breach of Trust will probably decide Newt can't be there guy. What keeps this interesting is that if Newt isn't their guy, a lot of others not named Romney could be.

Jon Huntsman

The most remarkable thing about me saying nice things about Jon Huntsman has been the speed with which the political press has seized on those words. More so than any other candidate in America for any office, if I write that I'm reconsidering Jon Huntsman, the media flies into an orgasmic fit of self-congratulations and races to pronounce Jon Huntsman recovered and rising.

I see it as another sign of just how manufactured Jon Huntsman's campaign is by the media. In truth, right now Jon Huntsman is not even a margin of error within the margin of errors of most polls.

This says little about the man himself other than an entire class could be given on how badly served Huntsman has been by his advisors who he allows to continue advising him. Only now is he beginning to make the shift to let conservatives know he really is one of them.

I have concluded I was too hasty in my judgment of Jon Huntsman. I have concluded that not only is his record better than MItt Romney's, I actually would probably vote for him before I would vote for Mitt Romney. But I think Jon Huntsman, like Herman Cain, has shown poor judgment by keeping a staff that started off his campaign so badly and kept him a margin of error outside the margin of error.

But I'm pretty sure the media will ignore all that and instead focus on the fact that I, a guy who said I'd never vote for Huntsman, am now saying I'd probably vote for him over Romney.

Ron Paul

Ron Paul will not be the nominee. But he just might take out Newt Gingrich. He might also take out Mitt Romney. And I'm really thinking the longer Ron Paul stays in, the more useful his constancy is to getting to a brokered convention.

Rick Perry

The longest serving Governor of Texas is about out of time. His campaign is in disarray. There is a shadow campaign within the campaign, seemingly no strong pro-active communications plan at the communications level (I'm not talking ads, I'm talking day to day messaging and narrative construction), and infighting. It seems that while the Governor is active and fully engaged, the campaign staff is divided. And we all know just how well divided houses do.

There is a path to victory for Rick Perry, but it involves events all outside his control right now. I like the guy. I have many friends working on his staff. I hope they are all deeply embarrassed or very, very sad at how this thing fell apart.

The one saving grace for Rick Perry and the one thing that might turn it around for him is that few people now think he can win, so it frees him up to actually campaign to win. Perry can still do this. It just depends on Romney, Gingrich, and Paul destroying each other while Perry rebuilds and reboots behind the scenes with minimal gaffes and a strong message on jobs.

One thing he has working for him? A big ground staff in Iowa. Making the top three there buys him a life line into South Carolina.

Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney has had since 2008 to sew this up. He has not. It is a failure of his political opportunism and of his political staff. Most interesting to me, in talking to a lot of conservatives who opposed Romney in 2008, many of them tell the same story this go round. Instead of trying to get them on board, the Romney campaign tried to marginalize them. Instead of trying to repair bridges, the Romney campaign has sought to burn them down. There is a lot of bad blood in the conservative movement now for Romney and his staff. What should have been an easy win for him will now, at best, be a bloodbath on the way to the nomination with a lot of time and money spent.

If you want a good idea of just how badly Mitt Romney has been served by his political consultants, consider this transcript showing Mitt Romney is actually clueless about his waiver proposal and it actually won't even work.

PHILIP KLEIN: You've said that on day one of your presidency, you would grant Obamacare waivers to all 50 states, as you pursue full repeal. But under the language of the health care law, waivers are subject to a number of restrictions, and wouldn't apply until the year 2017. So what immediate and specific relief would your executive order provide for individuals and businesses, assuming it's issued on January 20, 2013?

ROMNEY: Well, I will certainly pursue repeal, and that's something which will occur if we have a Republican House and a Republican Senate, my guess is it could be done pretty close to day one. If that's not the case, and I have to go through the waiver process, we will do our best.

Our lawyers think that providing a state a waiver that we will be able to conform with the law and that the state would be able to opt out of the system, but if a lawsuit ensues, and it takes months to sort it out, well during that time hopefully we will have the bill repealed. I think people recognize that if I'm elected President of the United States, that we are not going to have Obamacare with its full panoply of benefits and costs. The American people don't want it. I don't want it. And we'll repeal it. And if the waiver process is able to successfully stop it in its tracks, as we think it will, great. It doesn't stop everything of course. Some elements go on. The tax being collected and so forth, that you can't get out of that by waiver – it requires the ultimate repeal.

KLEIN: But what do your lawyers think as to why these waivers could take place, because I have the law here, and it says that it applies on January 1, 2017 – under the "waiver for state innovation."

ROMNEY: When you say "it" — "it applies"?

KLEIN: The "waiver for state innovation" — under section 1332.

ROMNEY: The waiver for state innovation?

KLEIN: Yes, that's the waiver that I believe that you're talking about when you talk about state waivers. That's what your campaign has said.

ROMNEY: Oh, they say it's that in particular?

KLEIN: Yeah.

ROMNEY: Then I'd have to have Ben Ginsberg, our lawyer, sit down. If you really want to go into that and tell you what — if that's important to you, we'll have Ben Ginsberg give you a call and talk about what provision of the law we would seek to employ.

Rick Santorum

I keep being told not to underestimate Rick Santorum in Iowa. He could still surprise us, but he won't be the nominee.

None of the above

For the first time I am giving serious though to none of the above. I am moving beyond wishful thinking to actually thinking we might need a brokered convention. The candidates in this race are good people, but none of them are proving to be of a caliber of conservative leader we should be putting on the field to take on the socialist in the White House.

The odds of a brokered convention are slim to none now. But I think we might need to have a conversation about it. The soft support so many primary voters have for their candidates and the number of undecided voters out there suggests there is room for a better person.