Peter L. Berger's Blog, page 178

Here Comes the Global Gas Market

Natural gas may share the title of “hydrocarbon” with oil, and it may be a fossil fuel, but that’s about where the similarities end. For both suppliers and consumers, there’s no greater distinction between the two than how they are sold. The oil market is the most interconnected commodity market in the world—the price of a barrel of crude sold here in the United States is, today, within a few dollars of what it’s going for in Europe. Crude can be loaded up on a ship and sent halfway around the world, so producers have to pay attention to global supply when they set prices.

Not so for natural gas, at least not historically. Natural gas is trickier to transport. Most often it’s sent from supplier to consumer via pipelines, but these routes have geographical constraints and can produce bottlenecks. They also can’t cross oceans, which has led to the formation of multiple regional gas markets around the world.

There’s another option for transporting gas, though: superchilling it to liquid form to load on tankers to then be shipped anywhere else in the world (that has a facility capable of regassifying it). Liquified natural gas, or LNG, has the potential to make the global gas market look more like the global oil market, to make it one based on spot prices rather than long-term contracts whose prices have historically been tied to the price of oil.

And, as the WSJ reports, there’s evidence that that LNG-enabled transition is well underway:

The share of gas moving by sea reached 40% of total trades in 2015, and the International Energy Agency forecasts that seaborne gas will account for a bigger share of trading than pipelines by 2040.

Thirty-nine countries now import LNG, up from 17 a decade ago, according to data and analytics firm IHS Markit. Several more, among them Uruguay, Bahrain and Bangladesh, are expected to lift the total to 46 in the next couple of years.

But LNG isn’t the only force driving this transition to a global gas market. That shift is being expedited by the fact that, just as is the case with oil, there’s a glut of natural gas in the world right now. The WSJ has more:

At the heart of the changes is supply. Huge new discoveries in the U.S., Middle East, East Africa and Australia, along with recovery techniques such as fracking, have expanded the amount of gas available for export. Companies and countries are moving to develop new markets to where they can sell it all.

The upside of all of this has been a narrowing of the gap between various regional prices. There’s no bigger winner on that front than Asia, which has historically paid a hefty premium for its own LNG supplies. Back in 2012, the WSJ points out, “Asia spot prices for LNG were $5.74 per million British thermal units higher than natural-gas prices in Europe.” In 2017, “the difference has averaged less than $1.”

While Asia will welcome this new kind of market for its lower prices, Europe will be looking for a different sort of benefit: a reduction of its reliance on piped Russian gas, and the political strings that so often seem to come with it.

Take the time to read the WSJ piece in its entirety. It’s an excellent look at one of the biggest changes underway in energy this century. This isn’t important only because of its geopolitical ramifications, but also because it evinces a larger truth that has emerged over the past decade or so: where once we grappled with the problems of energy scarcity, now we’re looking at the implications of a new energy abundance. That’s an entirely new way of thinking, and for many policymakers and titans of industry—and everyday people—it hasn’t sunk in yet.

Trump: I Decided to Take Action Against Qatar

President Trump on Friday, in a press conference outside the White House, took very clear credit for getting the Saudi and Emirati-led bloc to take action against Qatar prompting the latest crisis. From the President’s speech:

The nation of Qatar, unfortunately, has historically been a funder of terrorism, at a very high level. And in the wake of [the Riyadh conference], nations came together and spoke to me about confronting Qatar over its behavior.

So we had a decision to make: do we take the easy road, or do we finally take a hard, but necessary, action? We have to stop the funding of terrorism.

I decided— along with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, our great generals, and military people— the time had come to call on Qatar to end its funding— they have to end that funding— and its extremist ideology in terms of funding.

The president’s statement emphasizes the themes in his tweet from June 6 in which he placed the U.S. on the side of the Saudis against the Qataris:

During my recent trip to the Middle East I stated that there can no longer be funding of Radical Ideology. Leaders pointed to Qatar – look!

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) June 6, 2017

Much of what has been written in the past few days about the Gulf crisis has involved speculation as to why this was all happening now. The “fake news” item planted at the Qatar News Agency, potentially by Russians hackers, which quoted Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani as saying, “There is no reason behind Arabs’ hostility to Iran”; the apparently “not fake” report of a warm conversation between Emir al-Thani and Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani the other week; the Saudis’ and UAE simmering anger at a large ransom payment to Iraqi and Syrian militias that partially went to Iran; all these have all been put forth as possible triggers for the crisis. But none have seemed sufficient to explain the explosive events making headlines this week. And the moves seemed impulsive and poorly thought through. Why, for instance, did the Saudi bloc do this without an agreed upon set of demands?

The President’s speech appears to clarify some of the mystery. At the discussions in Riyadh, our Gulf allies pointed the finger at the Qataris for bad behavior and terrorism financing, and the President looks to have directly encouraged them to act. All of these countries have longstanding grievances against Qatar, so it wouldn’t take much encouragement to get them to move. At the same time, Saudi Arabia’s participation in the war in Yemen isn’t going as well as the Saudis hoped; both the US and the Saudis may have thought that shifting the focus of the anti-Iran coalition away from war in Yemen to diplomacy with Qatar was a useful step to take. The hacking of Qatar News Agency may have provided the necessary pretext for doing something, but America’s support cemented their resolve.

Where this crisis goes from here is unclear, and the path forward suggested by President Trump’s bold remarks—squeezing the Qataris hard—is not without risks. The Turks are making noises about backing Qatar militarily, and an Iranian offer for support is on the table.

While a shooting war seems unlikely at this point, it can’t be ruled out. Everyone’s true intentions and red lines are far from obvious at this stage, and so there’s abundant room for miscalculations. Indeed, the President’s remarks stand in stark contrast to moves made by other parts of his Administration. Secretary of State Tillerson earlier today appeared to be kicking off an attempt to mediate the crisis; he directly called on the Saudi-led bloc to ease the blockade on Qatar, citing not only humanitarian concerns, but also saying that it was hampering U.S. military actions in the campaign against ISIS.

It’s important to remember that President Trump was reading from a prepared text—not extemporizing—which suggests that he and Tillerson may be trying out a “good cop/bad cop” routine with the Qataris. We will see how well that goes over in a part of the world where saving face and precise and clear protocol is of supreme importance. If it works and the Qataris fold or compromise, the Trump Administration will be able to rightly chalk up a diplomatic win. But if Qatar holds out as Iran or even Turkey raise the stakes, we are in a different and more dangerous world.

India and Pakistan Join the SCO

A seemingly curious thing happened in Astana today: India joined its arch-rival Pakistan in signing on to a China-led security bloc. The Times of India has more:

Capping a two-year-long process, India and Pakistan today became full members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), a China-dominated security grouping that is increasingly seen as a counterweight to NATO.

India’s membership was strongly pushed by Russia while Pakistan’s entry into the grouping was backed by China. […]

As an SCO member, India is expected to have a bigger say in pressing for concerted action in dealing with terrorism as well as on issues relating to security and defence in the region. […]

India, one of the largest energy consuming countries in the world, is also likely to get greater access to major gas and oil exploration projects in Central Asia as many of the SCO countries have huge reserves of oil and natural gas.

It is tempting to see India’s SCO membership as out of character, given India’s traditional hostility to Pakistan and Modi’s general inclination to balance against China rather than accommodate it. But the move is actually consonant with India’s diplomatic traditions: just as it resisted choosing clear sides in the Cold War, India is still deftly keeping its feet in multiple camps, trying to get the best out of both the United States and China.

As if to prove the point, Modi gently hinted at tensions with Beijing and asserted India’s independence even as he joined the bloc. In his remarks at the SCO Summit, Modi urged cooperation against terrorism and an agenda of economic connectivity, but with some pointed caveats. “For connectivity initiatives and for success and approval of the projects,” Modi said, “sovereignty and regional integrity must be respected.” Those comments were widely understood as a rebuke of China, given Modi’s recent decision to boycott the One Belt, One Road summit over objections to China’s Pakistani projects. Modi also used the occasion to make a not-so-subtle jab at Pakistan for failing to combat radicalization and terrorist financing.

Finally, the SCO has always been more of an ineffectual talk shop than the serious counterweight to Western hegemony some of its members fancy it to be. Given all that, Delhi has to figure that it is better to have a seat at the table of a regional security organization than to be left standing on the sidelines.

One Independence Movement Falls And Another Rises

A big loser in last night’s UK elections was the Scottish National Party, whose broad losses to the Tories made it clear that the Scots don’t want another vote on independence. But even as the Scots settle down, the Catalans are rising up. The New York Times: 

Catalonia will hold a referendum on independence on Oct. 1, the president of the region said on Friday, defying the Spanish courts and the conservative government in Madrid.

Longstanding objections to the referendum, which was announced by the Catalan president, Carles Puigdemont, mean that it is unclear how the vote could be held and whether it would be considered binding. But the decision nonetheless raises the stakes in a separatist dispute that has been at the heart of Spanish politics for five years.

Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, with the support of the Spanish judiciary, has promised to block efforts to hold a referendum, and vowed to maintain Spanish unity and resist the secessionist push from Catalonia.

As the Catalan independence movement has picked up steam in recent years—first in November 2014’s non-binding referendum, later in 2015’s regional elections—independence advocates have repeatedly pointed to the Scottish example to argue their right to a binding referendum. It will be ironic if the failed Scottish movement inspires a much more successful and consequential one in Spain.

The Spanish government, of course, is determined not to let that happen. Apart from the obvious challenge to its own authority, Madrid will not tolerate losing a region that accounts for nearly 20% of its GDP. A high-stakes showdown is already looming: as in past years, Prime Minister Rajoy is promising to play hardball, threatening a host of serious consequences if Catalonia goes through with the independence drive. In extreme circumstances, he could even invoke article 155 of the constitution to suspend regional autonomy, send in the national police and shut down polling stations.

We’ll see if it comes to that; such drastic measures have been avoided in the past, and Madrid may fear stoking further secessionist sentiment with a major crackdown. Still, if Puigdemont proceeds with a vote in open defiance of Madrid and the courts, a serious constitutional crisis could be in the cards.

Mayday in the UK

When the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, normally given to understatement, said two weeks ago that America and Britain must henceforth be seen as unreliable allies of Europe, the U.S. because of the election of Donald Trump and the UK after Brexit, she cannot have known where the British general election was heading. Her extraordinary pronouncement caused resentment in London, but the election result is likely to have reinforced her opinion rather than caused her to revise it. A tragedy for the country itself, it is also bad news for the Western world.

The hope was that the Conservative leader Theresa May would gain a majority of 100 or more, large enough to cement her parliamentary authority and thus secure a good deal with Brussels in the imminent Brexit negotiations. Such a result would also have helped sanitize the British body politic by trimming the power of hardliners on the right and left. By giving May more parliamentary leeway, rightwing Brexiteers would see their influence reduced, and a massive electoral defeat for the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn would undermine the far left and embolden the Labour moderates—a majority of MPs—to throw him out.

All these hopes have been shattered. In the hung Parliament this election has produced, May will be even more exposed to right-wing pressure, and Corbyn’s surprise showing will validate, in his own eyes at least, his determination to remain opposition leader. In other words, the winners of the election in moderate, pragmatic Britain are the extremists on either side. In foreign policy one of them is anti-NATO ands soft on Moscow, and the other is anti-European—each of which imply a dilution of British influence in the community of Western nations. On Brexit the Tory right wants a confrontational negotiation with Brussels leading to a clean break with the EU, politically, economically, and militarily.

Their Conservative Party is now half-crippled, yet the zealots and their backers in the right-wing media will not give up, thereby endangering May’s future. Because their vision of the world is so outlandish, foreigners find it hard to understand. Like some latter-day League of Empire Loyalists, in the Tory imagination a definitive break with Europe will be followed by a return to the splendid isolation of the mid-19th century.

As a global power free of entangling alliances with Europe, the UK will compensate for the loss of almost half its exports when it leaves the EU single market by going it alone in the world. Non-EU countries, notably China and former colonies like India, will clamour to trade with us, our industrial sector will revive, and Manchester will renew its rightful place as workshop of the world.

A caricature? Listen to this, from an article in the Daily Telegraph:

Of all the many splendid opportunities provided by the British people’s heroic Brexit vote, perhaps the greatest is the resuscitation of the idea of a CANZUK Union. Winston Churchill’s great dream of a Western alliance based on three separate blocs might one day live again, thanks to Brexit. The first and second blocs—the USA and a United State of Europe—are already in place. Now it is time for the last—CANZUK—to retake her place as the third pillar of Western Civilization.

This ultra-patriotic claptrap is from the pen of the British historian Andrew Roberts, an excitable Brexiteer, whose extravagant views on foreign policy are taken seriously on the British Right. (UK exports to Australia, incidentally, are 1 percent of the total.)

So much for the fantasy Right. In the world of Jeremy Corbyn, British global preeminence is to be moral, its standing boosted by unilateral abandonment of our independent nuclear deterrent, a hostile stance towards the United States and Israel and a friendlier one towards Russia, Hamas, Hezbollah, and above all Venezuela. On the real and immediate problem of the European Union, he has little to say, though in the past he has defended uncontrolled immigration, notably from Asian and Middle Eastern countries, and voted against every piece of anti-terrorist legislation as the threat from an influx of jihadis has grown.

In the middle of this parliamentary circus, though with no whip to crack, will stand, gaunt and forlorn, the almost powerless figure of Theresa May. In a country prone to self-delusion, whether about the quality of its television, its contemporary art, the value of its houses, or the stature of its politicians, the election results will bring us closer to reality. Before, the centre-right media had convinced itself that May represented the sacred Margaret’s second coming, and that, given sufficient parliamentary backing, the negotiators of Brussels would be duly floored by the new Thatcher’s handbag.

Then suddenly, in mid-campaign, as the same press unsentimentally put it, Saint Theresa had been rumbled. One commentator suggested that the contest for the leadership of Britain was between two second-rate mediocrities. This is unfair to Theresa—Corbyn, with no brain in his head and no experience of office, is fifth-rate—but delusions about her have definitively gone. A woman with negative charisma, she has been accused of developing a cult of no personality. Intellectually insecure, except in stiff, nervous incantations, she has no gift of words. Even when she had a sound anti-Corbyn message, on TV she was a national turnoff. Her response to the second terrorist attack during the campaign, on London Bridge? “Enough is enough.” So was the first one, in Manchester, okay?

May’s contact with her ministers and civil servants is as distant and guarded as it is with the public. She is shielded by two No. 10 guard dogs of questionable quality and with combustible tempers: a former Glasgow journalist and a 37-year-old political adviser from Birmingham, said to be a thinker. The consequences of closeting herself with this pair for the campaign were catastrophic. It is difficult to alienate the older and younger generation simultaneously, but they managed it, by tossing into May’s manifesto without consultation a hugely contentious proposal involving the higher contributions to the cost of care in later life, threatening parents’ homes and children’s inheritances.

The contrast with the real Thatcher is instructive. Having seen her at work as a diplomat, then as a Minister for Higher Education in her government, I know Thatcher was not only open to argument, she loved it, and I enjoyed a number with her myself. Of course she had some right-wing cronies but she never hid behind them, preferring to thrash things out directly with Cabinet ministers and senior civil servants, many of them highly capable minds, on which she was happy to sharpen her own.

Under May the future of Britain looks as bleak and uncertain as her own. The Tory right will be merciless with her: A former “Remain” voter in the referendum suspected of sympathy with left-wing social causes, her authority is shot to pieces in the Tory Party, as it is in the House. Always nervous-looking at the best of times, and never more than when she does her I-shall-not-be-moved Thatcher impressions, it is hard to see her lasting.

The fond pretence that we are on course for a bruising but ultimately triumphal Brexit negotiation, whether there is an agreement or not, is fast crumbling. If they didn’t suspect it before (and sober minds did), the country, the markets, and EU negotiators now know that this was little more than a charade. Not just May herself but the trio of ministers in the forefront of the Brexit talks—David Davis, Liam Fox, and the Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson—are in different ways second-rate too.

Johnson, a clever/silly, un-grown-up former columnist and Mayor of London, sprays words around so loosely and self-indulgently that he was kept largely in the background in the election. Yet this could help him now. Such is the paucity of talent in the Tory party—less evident than in Labour but painful just the same—that in mutterings about how long May can remain leader after her humiliation, to the incredulity of foreigners who have met him, Johnson, a favourite on the Right, will doubtless feature.

All this is poor news for the mother of parliaments, and the continued lack of a mature opposition will reduce its reputation further. What his supporters will sell as Corbyn’s triumph (and compared with expectations, it is) will mean that he will stay on as leader, thereby condemning Labour to years of vicious internal strife. The way Corbyn usurped the top job was through a change by his predecessor Ed Milliband in the mechanism for electing leaders, which gave all members, together with the trade unions, dominance, diminishing the influence of the (on the whole more moderate) MPs.

Now the party militants (not a few of them ex- or current Trotskyists) will use his unexpected success to stymie any challenge to his leadership and beef up his standing with respect to the moderates further. Not a few able MPs have left Labour in despair. Now, they may have to accommodate themselves to a reinforced leftist clique.

For the country, there is worse. A month ago Corbyn as Prime Minister would have seemed a joke; in shrunken Britain, not any more. Buoyed by what will be touted as a moral victory in the campaign, the hard left will hope for a real one next time, in 2022 or before if the May can no longer get legislation through the House, notably on Brexit. (Whether her health can take the strain is another factor.) And the key to everything will be the performance of the economy.

Corbyn is the poor man’s Lenin; “the worse the better” was one of the master’s sayings, and under the former, that will be the party’s direction of travel. May’s election disaster will damage the country’s prospects, already subsiding over the uncertainties of Brexit, a shrinking pound, and rising inflation. The instant reaction of markets to a hung Parliament has been softened by hopes that, with no majority for the “hard Brexit” favoured by the Right, some as yet unspecified softer version could be negotiated over time. Yet the details of such a compromise, not least the implications for immigration and the complexities of getting it through Parliament, boggle the mind. “Remain” interests are already putting it about that we may never leave. What is certain is that the Brexit agony is destined to be drawn-out, and a drain on the national energies.

If the Tories are riven by divisions over the day-to-day negotiations, the European Union plays hardball, and the economy hits serious trouble, a Tory collapse and a Corbyn government, unthinkable only weeks ago, could be in the cards. As the trade unions’ confidence in him grows and the public’s fear of him declines, the prospect of politically motivated industrial action to push things along looms, especially in public services. A worst-case scenario, perhaps, but no longer one to be excluded.

Whatever else the pundits expected from the British elections no one anticipated a major upset of the established political order that we have seen. Nowhere was there any suggestion that, following the Brexit and Trump shocks, a third explosion of populist sentiment could shake the suppositions of the Western world about sensible, stable Britain by championing a 68-year-old far leftist suffering from arrested political development, compared with whom Bernie Sanders is a model of pragmatism and sobriety. Yet the electorate spun on a sixpence and a massive 40percent voted for him against a mere 42 percent for the Tories.

Why did no one foresee this? A few months ago I myself wrote:

At best Corbyn is a pious moralist aspiring to the condition of a holy fool. The poor man is not of this world and would do better to enter the church—any church—where he can chant its eternal verities to his heart’s content. As it is, intellectually he is rag doll manipulated by a couple of expensively-educated neo-Marxist puppeteers.

The voters appear to have taken another view. My consolation is that I was not alone. Corbyn was seen by the Tories as a gift from God, and as a unelectable laughing stock by the 80 percent of his own parliamentary party who backed a vote of no confidence in him last year. It is true that he ran a good campaign, shutting up about Brexit and itemising all the goodies Labour would scatter with borrowed money, from free university finance to a massively boosted NHS. Yet surely the voters would understand that, however tough things had been since the recession, free spending combined with sharply higher taxes and a massive assault on business was pie in the sky economics?

But they didn’t. The non-reading, 140-character generation saw the shower of gold descending and said, “Yeah, like it!” So did those whose pay has yet to get back to 2008 levels. And instead of not voting, this time they did, as online registering made it simple. Then there were the luvvie lefties in the media, and the celebrity playpen revolutionaries, who simply adored Corbyn. So genuine and authentic, don’t you think?

The rest of us, meanwhile, got our own country wrong.

A country that had been collectively appalled at the sight of deluded hordes of U.S. voters electing Trump to the White House has done something not dissimilar, by awarding the power to foul up stable government in Britain not to a right-wing hardhat, but to his soft-spoken though no less weird and intellectually stunted left-wing equivalent. What we are talking about is a debased Anglo-American political culture, and we are in it together.

Clinton’s talk about the “deplorables” may have been a political mistake, but that does not mean she was wrong about their existence. Along with racists, homophobes and the rest, “deplorables” should include the larger numbers of folk whose low educational standing (personal or institutional), ignorance (willful or induced), or cultural backwardness make them incapable of making mature judgements.

And in Britain, it should be remembered, public education levels are amongst the lowest in Europe—except for the 7 percent who buy their way out of the state system. It goes without saying that former Prime Minister David Cameron, who recklessly called the referendum, and Boris Johnson, a chancer and self-seeking Brexiteer, are Etonians, with high levels of insouciance. Nor is their interest in the educational levels of the 93 percent compelling.

It is not a question of whether you vote left or right, but of the ability to recognize that Trump and Corbyn, for different reasons, are beyond the pale. A recent letter from the editor of The American Interest (“A World Beyond Obsession”) stated of the Trump presidency: “So now we behold on a daily basis a political reality that often resembles the basest kind of reality TV fare, full of artificial drama and continuous mendacity. Yet shockingly large numbers of Americans cannot or do not care to mark the difference.”

The behaviour of your British cultural cousins, whose electoral choices are fondly imagined to be on a more sophisticated level altogether, is a reminder that you are not alone.

Emmanuel Kant’s Perpetual Peace, an 18th-century charter for a democratic order, wasn’t just about banning secret treaties or abolishing standing armies. What he made clear time and again was that his blueprint for peace and prosperity was based on an educated, rational public. In their consideration of politics what proportion of the Anglo-American public could be described as educated and rational today?

Russia’s President Putin has become a handy ready-reckoner as to good or bad Western election results. In the United States he pronounced himself delighted by the advent of Trump, even if a more sober assessment might have led him to foresee that the global instabilities his candidate could wreak that might cumulatively damage Russian interests. In France his crypto-fascist friend Le Pen lost, and President Macron is showing healthy tendencies. And if Angela Merkel succeeds in staying in power in Germany’s Autumn elections—the signs are good—then that will be another sore head for Putin.

In Britain, meanwhile, the Kremlin’s cup has overflowed. The Russians were spoiled for choice, and the results could scarcely have been better. The EU referendum last June was a gift to their strategy of smashing up Europe and dealing separately with the bits. This time the Tories went into the election bent on pressing ahead with their own work of destruction—destructive not just for the EU but for Britain herself. And as a Bolshevik sentimentalist and economic wrecker Corbyn was another plus. Chaos and instability in historically stable Britain—what’s not to like?

The triumph of Trump raised the question: whither Western democracy? The British result does the same. And this at a time when voices in the emerging world were already muttering, “Say what you like about their ethics, but in leadership terms, with Xi Jinping, Putin, Erdogan, you know where you stand.” Whatever else they think they are doing, in non-Western eyes Anglo-American voters are devaluing democracy, and thereby giving the attractions of authoritarian governments a bit of a boost.

Asian Countries Tighten Anti-Terror Ties

As fighting rages on in Mindanao, where Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte declared martial law last month, the Philippines is increasingly seeking its neighbors’ help in quelling Islamist insurgencies. The Nikkei Asian Review:

The Philippines, Indonesia and Malaysia will collaborate on air and marine defense in the wake of frequent terrorist attacks by extremists linked to the Islamic State group.

Malaysian Defense Minister Hishammuddin Tun Hussein has said the three Southeast Asian countries will jointly defend the waters off the southern Philippine island of Mindanao starting June 19, and that they will join forces on air defense as well.

[…] The combined air and marine defense is aimed at preventing the extremists from establishing solid operational bases.

As its Middle Eastern footprint shrinks, ISIS is making major inroads into Southeast Asia, sending foreign fighters across weakly patrolled ocean borders and co-opting homegrown Islamist insurgencies. According to Singapore’s defense minister, there are now 31 terror groups in Southeast Asia linked to the Islamic State, and they are increasingly making their presence felt, from the ongoing fighting in Marawi City to the recent terror attacks in Jakarta. Combined with the rising political influence of hardline Islam in Indonesia, it all adds up to an increasingly radicalized and violent neighborhood.

Is there an opportunity here for the Trump Administration? The U.S. has already pledged to assist the Philippines’ counter-terror efforts at the recent Shangri-La summit. Given President Trump’s placing a high priority on the terror issue and his recent efforts to court Duterte, promoting a counterterrorism agenda could be a fruitful way to repair ties with Manila while firming up America’s credibility in the Pacific.

Did Israel Just Win the British Election?

It looks like Theresa May will stay Prime Minister, for now. May announced that she will be forming a government with the Democratic Unionists:

The prime minister is expected to see the Queen at about 12.30pm on Friday to confirm that a deal is in place.

It follows extensive talks with the DUP late into the night. Party figures say they have been driven on by their dismay at the possibility of Jeremy Corbyn becoming prime minister.

DUP figures insist their relationship with May’s team has been close since she became prime minister 11 months ago.

The biggest winner may end up being… Israel!

Anti-Semitism and anti-Zionism in various combinations have been a potent force in British politics among both Tories and Labour since WW2. The non-Thatcherite Right and the Corbynite Left don’t have much in common, but dislike for Israel and for America’s support for it are strong at both ends of the British political spectrum.

One of the few reservoirs of strong pro-Israel feeling in the UK lies in Northern Ireland, the homeland of the Scots-Irish, who are the core of Jacksonian politics in the United States. The DUP is the most “Jacksonian” (that is to say rightwing, nationalist-populist) political force in the UK, and many of Ulster’s Protestants are as sympathetic to Israel as their U.S. cousins. Travelers in Northern Ireland will sometimes see Palestinian flags in Catholic neighborhoods and the Star of David banner in Protestant ones.

Last night’s election turned those Ulster Protestants into kingmakers; the 10 seats of the DUP hold the balance in the British parliament, and Theresa May had no choice but to look to DUP as her best coalition partner and strongest ally.

It’s unlikely that a British government that depends on Northern Ireland unionists will be eager to break new ground in the world of anti-Israel boycotts. Expect gnashing of teeth at the (mostly) anti-Zionist Foreign and Commonwealth Office.

Meanwhile, Arab money will be more important than ever in London as the city seeks to defend its key role in international finance in the chaos of Brexit. But these days, much of that money is pro-Israel too. As post-Brexit Britain looks for partners, it could do worse than link up with a technologically advanced country that has made significant trade and diplomatic inroads in Africa and Asia—and that favors an open global trading economy.

UK Election Live-Blog [CLOSED]

12:50 AM: Labour holding Southampton Test confirms that no party can now win a majority in the House of Commons. Britain will have a HUNG PARLIAMENT.

That result is an astonishing rebuff for both the prime minister and the Conservative party. Theresa May took a gamble that she could trade her existing working majority of 17 for something even bigger. She threw the dice and came up snake eyes. Her own future is now in doubt.

Jeremy Corbyn far exceeded expectations, but his Labour party cannot get a majority either. There will be all kinds of political maneuvering now as everyone goes looking for friends. If the Conservatives can bring the Democratic Unionist Party’s 10 MPs on board, that will get them to within two seats of a working majority. Still, don’t be surprised if we’re all back here for another general election later in the year.

So it’s not goodbye, it’s see you later.

On which note: goodnight!

Our 6am edition – THERESA DISMAY pic.twitter.com/ZmA0sfoxFx

— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) June 9, 2017

 

 

12:00 AM: Latest on Tory turmoil on the future of Theresa May, from the Spectator, house magazine of conservatism.

Tory leadership latest, from James Forsyth: https://t.co/bgLgz5DWfw pic.twitter.com/pRMv4mNy20

— Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) June 9, 2017

 

11:50 PM: Home Secretary Amber Rudd, one of the few conservatives to have enhanced her reputation in the last weeks and who won widespread sympathy when her father passed away during the campaign, holds her seat in a close race in Hastings. If Theresa May resigns, Rudd would be a strong candidate for the leadership .

A real pleasure interviewing Home Secretary @AmberRudd_MP for @ChiswickBuzz about local issues. Inspiring to meet a strong woman in politics pic.twitter.com/15KFfHgd5W

— Emily Rose Adams (@EmilyRoseAdams) May 1, 2017

 

11:45 PM: Another Conservative minister, Simon Kirby, loses his seat to Labour in Brighton.

BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg reporting  that senior ministers are briefing that it is “50/50” whether Theresa May will be ousted tomorrow morning.

Iain Duncan Smith, former conservative leader, says “it isn’t the greatest campaign I’ve ever seen” but that everybody in the party needs to “take a deep breath” before deciding what to do.

 

11:35 PM: Pro-EU Conservative MP and former minister Anna Soubry says the party has had a “terrible night” and that Theresa May must now “consider her position.”

 

11:30 PM: Conservatives WIN Gordon in Scotland; former SNP leader Alex Salmond defeated and the Scottish Nationalists lose their most important political operator.

Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, hails “a historic night” for her party in Scotland. On a bad night for the rest of her party in the UK, she has emerged as one of its brightest stars.

 

11:10 PM: Let’s take a look at some of the UK morning papers, courtesy of the BBC’s Neil Henderson @hendopolis

MAIL 3 AM UPDATED: Gamble that backfired #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/IqIH6Fmk32

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 9, 2017

MIRROR UPDATED: Cor Blimey #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/4g3pM7SXDd

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 9, 2017

TELEGRAPH 2AM: May's gamble backfires #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/vextSIRUlm

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 9, 2017

DAILY STAR: Mayhem as Tory gamble fails #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/yLz28nXYAn

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 9, 2017

 

11:00 PM: Theresa May returning to 10 Downing Street in London. Still unclear whether she will stay there or is shortly to be evicted. When she called the snap general election in April, the polls suggested she would win a landslide; now she has lost her majority and could end up having the shortest premiership since  “the unknown prime minister” Andrew Bonar Law in 1923.

Correction: Theresa May has gone to Conservative Central Office to watch the rest of the results come in. There won’t be many champagne corks popping.

 

10:50 PM Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, says “we have won this election in Scotland.” but that “I will reflect” on implications of “disappointing losses” for the independence issue. Also says she hopes SNP will “play our part” in a progressive alliance in the House of Commons to keep the Conservatives out of power.

 

10:20 PM: Theresa May wins her Maidenhead seat comfortably. Strain etched on her face, says “we have yet to see the full picture … but this country needs a period of stability.” Continues that if the Conservatives are the biggest party, it will be incumbent upon them to form a government in the national interest. Her words are the clearest indication yet that the UK is heading toward a hung parliament.

"The country needs a period of stability," Theresa May has said, after securing the Conservative seat in Maidenhead #GE2017 #Vote2017 pic.twitter.com/ojoYFAvF1q

— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 9, 2017

 

10:10 PM: Jeremy Corbyn retains his Islington seat. “Politics has changed. People have voted for hope and turning their backs on austerity.”  Says the only mandate Theresa May has is “to go” in order to make way for a progressive government.

 

10:00 PM: Government minister Ben Gummer loses his seat in Ipswich.

On a non-political point, as an Ipswich Town FC supporter, can I just say that no-one in blue can seem to get a win in Ipswich these days.

 

9:55 PM: Nick Clegg, former Lib Dem leader and deputy prime minister, loses his seat in Sheffield Hallam. One commentator points out that he was a politician who put country above party; that was the test Churchill always set and Clegg passed it.

Meanwhile, Lib Dem Vince Cable, who lost his seat at the last election, wins back Twickenham and may well become the next leader of his party.

The slings and arrows of outrageous political fortune.

 

9:35 PM: Conservatives WIN East Renfrewshire from SNP. One of the stories of the night could be that the Scottish tories end up saving Theresa May.

Jo Swinson wins back Dumbartonshire East for the Lib Dems; another big SNP figure, John Nicolson, loses his seat.

 

9:25 PM: Latest betting–Jeremy Corbyn is now 10/11 favorite to be next prime minister.

Jeremy Corbyn is now the 10/11 FAVOURITE to be the next Prime Minister!

Full betting: https://t.co/NDuQBb3m2Y pic.twitter.com/TNhSNjUHe7

— Paddy Power (@paddypower) June 9, 2017

 

9:20 PM: Huge defeat for Scottish Nationalists. Angus Robertson, leader of the SNP in the House of Commons, loses his seat to the Conservatives.

Peter Kellner points out that if you add together the votes of the unionist parties (Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems), they  beat those who want a second referendum on independence by 2 to 1. Momentum in Scotland is decisively with keeping the United Kingdom together.

 

9:10 PM: Nigel Farage, former UKIP leader, says that he may have “no choice” but to reenter British politics as Brexit comes under threat.

After almost 50 results, original exit poll is looking pretty accurate. That would leave the Conservatives as the largest party in a HUNG PARLIAMENT.

 

9:05 PM: Jane Ellison becomes the first government minister to lose her seat in parliament tonight. Labour gain Battersea with a 10% swing. Labour’s momentum in London continues apace.

 

9:00 PM: Staggering result as Conservatives GAIN Angus from SNP with a 16% swing. Resurgence of union sentiment in Scotland.

 

8:55 PM: Alistair Campbell, Tony Blair’s former press secretary in 10 Downing Street, says Brexit now has to be revisited.

This election is a rejection of May and hard Brexit. A vote for one to go and the other to be revisited.

— Alastair Campbell (@campbellclaret) June 8, 2017

 

8:50 PM: Tim Farron, leader of the Liberal Democrats, leaves for his count. His own race in Westmorland and Lonsdale is too close to call and he may lose his seat.

The latest pictures of Lib Dem leader Tim Farron, saying "It's too early to say," as to how the Party will perform in the #GE2017 #Vote2017 pic.twitter.com/PJhj0A9InT

— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 9, 2017

 

8:40 PM: Labour GAIN Vale of Clwyd from Conservatives, showing Labour has momentum in Wales. Justine Greening, the Conservative government minister has held her seat in Putney, but with a 10% swing to Labour–so Labour inroads in London continue.

 

8:35 PM: Mike Smithson, political betting expert, who throughout this campaign has been skeptical about opinion polls:

The pollsters whose turnout models scaled down views of the young have caught a cold tonight.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 9, 2017

 

 

8:25 PM: Labour holds Tooting with massive increase in majority. We’re beginning to see the London effect in this election … Labour making huge gains in the UK capital (which overwelmingly voted Remain in the Brexit referendum).

 

8:10 PM: Labour holds seat in Wrexham, a seat high on the Conservatives hit list. Against expectations, Labour looks as if it will not just hold, but will GAIN, seats in Wales and also in Scotland. The UKIP vote, which many anticipated would move uniformly to the Conservatives, does not appear to have happened.

As if on cue, Labour WIN in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, taking the seat from the Scottish Nationalists (SNP) with an 8% swing.

 

8:00 PM: Sam Coates in the Times raises the big question. If this election produces a hung parliament, what happens on Brexit? Remember that negotiations with the EU are scheduled to begin this month. But what if there is no prime minister who can command a majority in the House of Commons? What if there needs to be (as there was in 1974) a second election? That has serious implications for Brexit, not least because if the Liberal Democrats hold the balance of power, their price may well be some kind of second Brexit referendum. The potential for chaos looms.

One Tory MP said: "Tell me, which is sovereign, the referendum or this new parliament?"

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) June 8, 2017

 

7:50 PM: Darlington result, Labour hold. Darlington had been a target seat for the Conservatives in the north of England, but Jenny Chapman has held them off. If the Conservatives were going to win a big majority, this is a seat they had to win.

 

7:45 PM: Andrew Rawnsley of the Guardian: “This election may be the revenge of the young.” Turnout suggests that the 18-24 demographic has turned out in much stronger numbers than in previous elections, with most in the Labour column. Many say they have been motivated by their anger at the vote to leave the European Union–a decision very unpopular among the young.

 

7:20 PM: Ken Clarke, former Conservative government minister under Margaret Thatcher, John Major, and David Cameron says that from the national interest, a hung parliament is the “worst possible result.”

BBC says “we might be recalibrating our exit poll” as results show that Conservatives may be performing more strongly than forecast.

 

7:10 PM: Emily Thornberry, Labour shadow foreign secretary (secretary of state), says Labour may try to govern as a minority administration.

 

7:00 PM: Hugo Rifkind of The Times may have the best approach for pundits everywhere tonight.

BTW, my plan is basically to tweet all possible contradictory takes tonight and then delete all the wrong ones at 5am.

— Hugo Rifkind (@hugorifkind) June 8, 2017

 

6:55 PM: Sunderland Central result: Labour hold, but Conservatives do better than exit poll projection.

That’s a pattern in three northeastern seats, where UKIP support has collapsed, mostly going to the conservatives. However in southern seats such as Croydon, Hastings and Brighton, or midlands seats such as Telford, Labour activists at the counts are said to be optimistic about what they are seeing.

Distinguished psephologist Prof Peter Kellner: “I wouldn’t put my money on anything.”

 

6:30 PM: Uh-oh! John Curtice, the guru behind the exit poll, already starting to distance himself from his own poll. Experts still divided about what’s going to happen. But one seasoned political adviser texts, “Whatever happens, May is toast.”

 

6:20 PM: Tom Newton Dunne, political editor of the UK’s bestselling newspaper, The Sun, reporting that Conservatives don’t believe exit poll.

Senior Tories have now crunched their own numbers, and are convinced the exit poll is wrong. "It simply just doesn’t add up" #GE2017

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) June 8, 2017

 

6:15 PM: Sunderland South declares. Unsurprisingly it’s a Labour hold, but the Conservatives have done better than they might have expected from the national exit poll. In both Newcastle and Sunderland, the UKIP vote has crashed, making it even more difficult to project what’s going to happen in the wider result. Confused? You’re not alone. No-one has a clue what’s going to happen.

 

6:05 PM: Newcastle Central wins the race to be the first constituency (district) to declare a result, pipping Sunderland South to the post. No surprise: the Labour candidate Chi Onwurah holds her seat with 65% of the vote. Difficult to take much out this result, but a 2% swing to Labour seems to confirm what psephologist Prof. John Curtice calls a broader national “drift to the Labour party.”

 

5:55 PM: The Times front page

THE TIMES: May's big gamble fails #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/CgL0IHKNoq

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 8, 2017

 

5:50 PM: Sunderland South preparing to declare. This constituency (district) has been first to declare a result at every general election since 1992 (with neighbors and rivals Newcastle hard on their heels). Being first makes Sunderland South high profile. That comes with its down side. Armed police are highly visible at the count after the terrorist attacks in Manchester and London during the campaign.

 

5:35 PM: Guido Fawkes, one of the very best sources of UK political news and gossip, sounds a warning note. Remember the Brexit referendum, he says, when UKIP leader Nigel Farage conceded defeat for “Leave.” Farage turned out to be spectacularly wrong.

N.B. At this time on June 23, 2016 Nigel Farage conceded that Remain had won…

— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) June 8, 2017

 

5:30 PM: The Daily Mail, voice of Conservative Britain, reacts to exit poll.

MAIL: Britain on a knife edge #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/JL0lZ1Rp87

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 8, 2017

 

5:20 PM: OK folks, are you sitting comfortably? It’s going to be a long, long night.

If the exit poll is right, the trend of anti-establishment elections in 2016–Brexit, Donald Trump–continues its run in 2017. Jeremy Corbyn will have outperformed expectations in spectacular fashion. For Theresa May it would be a phenomenal reverse and one to put her leadership of the Conservative party, let alone her premiership, under serious threat.

Before we get too excited though, let’s remember this only an exit poll. The first result will come just before 6 PM. But the first real bellweather constituency (district) will be Nuneaton. Expect that result around 8 PM.

Market reaction: sell, sell, sell the pound.

 

5:00 PM: Polls closed. Sky/BBC/ITV Exit Poll predicts

Conservatives 314

Labour 266

Lib Dems 14

SNP 34

UKIP 0

If this exit poll is right, the Conservative Party will be the largest party, but we are in HUNG PARLIAMENT territory. That would mean Theresa May’s gamble has failed in spectacular fashion.

4:50 PM: Welcome to our coverage of the UK general election!

The polls close at 5:00 PM (10:00 PM in the UK). The first exit polls will be available at 5 PM too, so we won’t have to wait long for good sense about whether prime minister Theresa May’s gamble in calling a snap election has paid off.

Stay with us throughout the evening as results come in.

UK Election Live-Blog

12:50 AM: Labour holding Southampton Test confirms that no party can now win a majority in the House of Commons. Britain will have a HUNG PARLIAMENT.

That result is an astonishing rebuff for both the prime minister and the Conservative party. Theresa May took a gamble that she could trade her existing working majority of 17 for something even bigger. She threw the dice and came up snake eyes. Her own future is now in doubt.

Jeremy Corbyn far exceeded expectations, but his Labour party cannot get a majority either. There will be all kinds of political maneuvering now as everyone goes looking for friends. If the Conservatives can bring the Democratic Unionist Party’s 10 MPs on board, that will get them to within two seats of a working majority. Still, don’t be surprised if we’re all back here for another general election later in the year.

So it’s not goodbye, it’s see you later.

On which note: goodnight!

Our 6am edition – THERESA DISMAY pic.twitter.com/ZmA0sfoxFx

— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) June 9, 2017

 

 

12:00 AM: Latest on Tory turmoil on the future of Theresa May, from the Spectator, house magazine of conservatism.

Tory leadership latest, from James Forsyth: https://t.co/bgLgz5DWfw pic.twitter.com/pRMv4mNy20

— Fraser Nelson (@FraserNelson) June 9, 2017

 

11:50 PM: Home Secretary Amber Rudd, one of the few conservatives to have enhanced her reputation in the last weeks and who won widespread sympathy when her father passed away during the campaign, holds her seat in a close race in Hastings. If Theresa May resigns, Rudd would be a strong candidate for the leadership .

A real pleasure interviewing Home Secretary @AmberRudd_MP for @ChiswickBuzz about local issues. Inspiring to meet a strong woman in politics pic.twitter.com/15KFfHgd5W

— Emily Rose Adams (@EmilyRoseAdams) May 1, 2017

 

11:45 PM: Another Conservative minister, Simon Kirby, loses his seat to Labour in Brighton.

BBC Political Editor Laura Kuenssberg reporting  that senior ministers are briefing that it is “50/50” whether Theresa May will be ousted tomorrow morning.

Iain Duncan Smith, former conservative leader, says “it isn’t the greatest campaign I’ve ever seen” but that everybody in the party needs to “take a deep breath” before deciding what to do.

 

11:35 PM: Pro-EU Conservative MP and former minister Anna Soubry says the party has had a “terrible night” and that Theresa May must now “consider her position.”

 

11:30 PM: Conservatives WIN Gordon in Scotland; former SNP leader Alex Salmond defeated and the Scottish Nationalists lose their most important political operator.

Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, hails “a historic night” for her party in Scotland. On a bad night for the rest of her party in the UK, she has emerged as one of its brightest stars.

 

11:10 PM: Let’s take a look at some of the UK morning papers, courtesy of the BBC’s Neil Henderson @hendopolis

MAIL 3 AM UPDATED: Gamble that backfired #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/IqIH6Fmk32

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 9, 2017

MIRROR UPDATED: Cor Blimey #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/4g3pM7SXDd

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 9, 2017

TELEGRAPH 2AM: May's gamble backfires #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/vextSIRUlm

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 9, 2017

DAILY STAR: Mayhem as Tory gamble fails #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/yLz28nXYAn

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 9, 2017

 

11:00 PM: Theresa May returning to 10 Downing Street in London. Still unclear whether she will stay there or is shortly to be evicted. When she called the snap general election in April, the polls suggested she would win a landslide; now she has lost her majority and could end up having the shortest premiership since  “the unknown prime minister” Andrew Bonar Law in 1923.

Correction: Theresa May has gone to Conservative Central Office to watch the rest of the results come in. There won’t be many champagne corks popping.

 

10:50 PM Nicola Sturgeon, leader of the Scottish National Party, says “we have won this election in Scotland.” but that “I will reflect” on implications of “disappointing losses” for the independence issue. Also says she hopes SNP will “play our part” in a progressive alliance in the House of Commons to keep the Conservatives out of power.

 

10:20 PM: Theresa May wins her Maidenhead seat comfortably. Strain etched on her face, says “we have yet to see the full picture … but this country needs a period of stability.” Continues that if the Conservatives are the biggest party, it will be incumbent upon them to form a government in the national interest. Her words are the clearest indication yet that the UK is heading toward a hung parliament.

"The country needs a period of stability," Theresa May has said, after securing the Conservative seat in Maidenhead #GE2017 #Vote2017 pic.twitter.com/ojoYFAvF1q

— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 9, 2017

 

10:10 PM: Jeremy Corbyn retains his Islington seat. “Politics has changed. People have voted for hope and turning their backs on austerity.”  Says the only mandate Theresa May has is “to go” in order to make way for a progressive government.

 

10:00 PM: Government minister Ben Gummer loses his seat in Ipswich.

On a non-political point, as an Ipswich Town FC supporter, can I just say that no-one in blue can seem to get a win in Ipswich these days.

 

9:55 PM: Nick Clegg, former Lib Dem leader and deputy prime minister, loses his seat in Sheffield Hallam. One commentator points out that he was a politician who put country above party; that was the test Churchill always set and Clegg passed it.

Meanwhile, Lib Dem Vince Cable, who lost his seat at the last election, wins back Twickenham and may well become the next leader of his party.

The slings and arrows of outrageous political fortune.

 

9:35 PM: Conservatives WIN East Renfrewshire from SNP. One of the stories of the night could be that the Scottish tories end up saving Theresa May.

Jo Swinson wins back Dumbartonshire East for the Lib Dems; another big SNP figure, John Nicolson, loses his seat.

 

9:25 PM: Latest betting–Jeremy Corbyn is now 10/11 favorite to be next prime minister.

Jeremy Corbyn is now the 10/11 FAVOURITE to be the next Prime Minister!

Full betting: https://t.co/NDuQBb3m2Y pic.twitter.com/TNhSNjUHe7

— Paddy Power (@paddypower) June 9, 2017

 

9:20 PM: Huge defeat for Scottish Nationalists. Angus Robertson, leader of the SNP in the House of Commons, loses his seat to the Conservatives.

Peter Kellner points out that if you add together the votes of the unionist parties (Conservatives, Labour and Lib Dems), they  beat those who want a second referendum on independence by 2 to 1. Momentum in Scotland is decisively with keeping the United Kingdom together.

 

9:10 PM: Nigel Farage, former UKIP leader, says that he may have “no choice” but to reenter British politics as Brexit comes under threat.

After almost 50 results, original exit poll is looking pretty accurate. That would leave the Conservatives as the largest party in a HUNG PARLIAMENT.

 

9:05 PM: Jane Ellison becomes the first government minister to lose her seat in parliament tonight. Labour gain Battersea with a 10% swing. Labour’s momentum in London continues apace.

 

9:00 PM: Staggering result as Conservatives GAIN Angus from SNP with a 16% swing. Resurgence of union sentiment in Scotland.

 

8:55 PM: Alistair Campbell, Tony Blair’s former press secretary in 10 Downing Street, says Brexit now has to be revisited.

This election is a rejection of May and hard Brexit. A vote for one to go and the other to be revisited.

— Alastair Campbell (@campbellclaret) June 8, 2017

 

8:50 PM: Tim Farron, leader of the Liberal Democrats, leaves for his count. His own race in Westmorland and Lonsdale is too close to call and he may lose his seat.

The latest pictures of Lib Dem leader Tim Farron, saying "It's too early to say," as to how the Party will perform in the #GE2017 #Vote2017 pic.twitter.com/PJhj0A9InT

— Sky News (@SkyNews) June 9, 2017

 

8:40 PM: Labour GAIN Vale of Clwyd from Conservatives, showing Labour has momentum in Wales. Justine Greening, the Conservative government minister has held her seat in Putney, but with a 10% swing to Labour–so Labour inroads in London continue.

 

8:35 PM: Mike Smithson, political betting expert, who throughout this campaign has been skeptical about opinion polls:

The pollsters whose turnout models scaled down views of the young have caught a cold tonight.

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) June 9, 2017

 

 

8:25 PM: Labour holds Tooting with massive increase in majority. We’re beginning to see the London effect in this election … Labour making huge gains in the UK capital (which overwelmingly voted Remain in the Brexit referendum).

 

8:10 PM: Labour holds seat in Wrexham, a seat high on the Conservatives hit list. Against expectations, Labour looks as if it will not just hold, but will GAIN, seats in Wales and also in Scotland. The UKIP vote, which many anticipated would move uniformly to the Conservatives, does not appear to have happened.

As if on cue, Labour WIN in Rutherglen and Hamilton West, taking the seat from the Scottish Nationalists (SNP) with an 8% swing.

 

8:00 PM: Sam Coates in the Times raises the big question. If this election produces a hung parliament, what happens on Brexit? Remember that negotiations with the EU are scheduled to begin this month. But what if there is no prime minister who can command a majority in the House of Commons? What if there needs to be (as there was in 1974) a second election? That has serious implications for Brexit, not least because if the Liberal Democrats hold the balance of power, their price may well be some kind of second Brexit referendum. The potential for chaos looms.

One Tory MP said: "Tell me, which is sovereign, the referendum or this new parliament?"

— Sam Coates Times (@SamCoatesTimes) June 8, 2017

 

7:50 PM: Darlington result, Labour hold. Darlington had been a target seat for the Conservatives in the north of England, but Jenny Chapman has held them off. If the Conservatives were going to win a big majority, this is a seat they had to win.

 

7:45 PM: Andrew Rawnsley of the Guardian: “This election may be the revenge of the young.” Turnout suggests that the 18-24 demographic has turned out in much stronger numbers than in previous elections, with most in the Labour column. Many say they have been motivated by their anger at the vote to leave the European Union–a decision very unpopular among the young.

 

7:20 PM: Ken Clarke, former Conservative government minister under Margaret Thatcher, John Major, and David Cameron says that from the national interest, a hung parliament is the “worst possible result.”

BBC says “we might be recalibrating our exit poll” as results show that Conservatives may be performing more strongly than forecast.

 

7:10 PM: Emily Thornberry, Labour shadow foreign secretary (secretary of state), says Labour may try to govern as a minority administration.

 

7:00 PM: Hugo Rifkind of The Times may have the best approach for pundits everywhere tonight.

BTW, my plan is basically to tweet all possible contradictory takes tonight and then delete all the wrong ones at 5am.

— Hugo Rifkind (@hugorifkind) June 8, 2017

 

6:55 PM: Sunderland Central result: Labour hold, but Conservatives do better than exit poll projection.

That’s a pattern in three northeastern seats, where UKIP support has collapsed, mostly going to the conservatives. However in southern seats such as Croydon, Hastings and Brighton, or midlands seats such as Telford, Labour activists at the counts are said to be optimistic about what they are seeing.

Distinguished psephologist Prof Peter Kellner: “I wouldn’t put my money on anything.”

 

6:30 PM: Uh-oh! John Curtice, the guru behind the exit poll, already starting to distance himself from his own poll. Experts still divided about what’s going to happen. But one seasoned political adviser texts, “Whatever happens, May is toast.”

 

6:20 PM: Tom Newton Dunne, political editor of the UK’s bestselling newspaper, The Sun, reporting that Conservatives don’t believe exit poll.

Senior Tories have now crunched their own numbers, and are convinced the exit poll is wrong. "It simply just doesn’t add up" #GE2017

— Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn) June 8, 2017

 

6:15 PM: Sunderland South declares. Unsurprisingly it’s a Labour hold, but the Conservatives have done better than they might have expected from the national exit poll. In both Newcastle and Sunderland, the UKIP vote has crashed, making it even more difficult to project what’s going to happen in the wider result. Confused? You’re not alone. No-one has a clue what’s going to happen.

 

6:05 PM: Newcastle Central wins the race to be the first constituency (district) to declare a result, pipping Sunderland South to the post. No surprise: the Labour candidate Chi Onwurah holds her seat with 65% of the vote. Difficult to take much out this result, but a 2% swing to Labour seems to confirm what psephologist Prof. John Curtice calls a broader national “drift to the Labour party.”

 

5:55 PM: The Times front page

THE TIMES: May's big gamble fails #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/CgL0IHKNoq

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 8, 2017

 

5:50 PM: Sunderland South preparing to declare. This constituency (district) has been first to declare a result at every general election since 1992 (with neighbors and rivals Newcastle hard on their heels). Being first makes Sunderland South high profile. That comes with its down side. Armed police are highly visible at the count after the terrorist attacks in Manchester and London during the campaign.

 

5:35 PM: Guido Fawkes, one of the very best sources of UK political news and gossip, sounds a warning note. Remember the Brexit referendum, he says, when UKIP leader Nigel Farage conceded defeat for “Leave.” Farage turned out to be spectacularly wrong.

N.B. At this time on June 23, 2016 Nigel Farage conceded that Remain had won…

— Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) June 8, 2017

 

5:30 PM: The Daily Mail, voice of Conservative Britain, reacts to exit poll.

MAIL: Britain on a knife edge #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/JL0lZ1Rp87

— Neil Henderson (@hendopolis) June 8, 2017

 

5:20 PM: OK folks, are you sitting comfortably? It’s going to be a long, long night.

If the exit poll is right, the trend of anti-establishment elections in 2016–Brexit, Donald Trump–continues its run in 2017. Jeremy Corbyn will have outperformed expectations in spectacular fashion. For Theresa May it would be a phenomenal reverse and one to put her leadership of the Conservative party, let alone her premiership, under serious threat.

Before we get too excited though, let’s remember this only an exit poll. The first result will come just before 6 PM. But the first real bellweather constituency (district) will be Nuneaton. Expect that result around 8 PM.

Market reaction: sell, sell, sell the pound.

 

5:00 PM: Polls closed. Sky/BBC/ITV Exit Poll predicts

Conservatives 314

Labour 266

Lib Dems 14

SNP 34

UKIP 0

If this exit poll is right, the Conservative Party will be the largest party, but we are in HUNG PARLIAMENT territory. That would mean Theresa May’s gamble has failed in spectacular fashion.

4:50 PM: Welcome to our coverage of the UK general election!

The polls close at 5:00 PM (10:00 PM in the UK). The first exit polls will be available at 5 PM too, so we won’t have to wait long for good sense about whether prime minister Theresa May’s gamble in calling a snap election has paid off.

Stay with us throughout the evening as results come in.

Iraqi Kurdistan Gets Ready for Independence Referendum

The Kurdistan Regional Government has set a date for its referendum declaring independence from Iraq. As Rudaw reports:

On Wednesday June 7, 2017, the high-ranking representatives of the political parties within the parliament and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in attendance with the Prime Minister and the Deputy Prime Minister, the president and deputy president of the Kurdistan High Electoral Commission, all convened with Mr. President Masoud Barzani, the president of the Kurdistan Region. [….]

The meeting’s attendants unanimously agreed on the following points:

– First, September 25, 2017 was set for holding referendum in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the Kurdistani areas outside the region’s administration.

Critically, a senior advisor to President Barzani seemed to suggest that the referendum would include disputed areas under Kurdish Peshmerga control that are claimed by the central Iraqi government, most notably the oil fields and refineries around Kirkuk:

Referendum on 25/9/2017 is for Iraqi Kurdistan including kirkuk, Khanqin, Sinjar & Makhmor. The ? Is: Do you want an independent Kurdistan?

— Hemin Hawrami (@heminhawrami) June 7, 2017

As in Syria, removing ISIS from Iraq will solve one problem but give rise to others that may be more difficult to solve. While the progress to recapture Mosul has been slow, it seems likely that the entire city will be under the control of the Iraqi army by the time the referendum is held, leaving only small pockets of ISIS control along the Kurdistan Region’s border with federal Iraq. By September, those pockets may well have been recaptured as well. With the common enemy gone, but foreign support at its peak, there may be no better time for the KR to declare independence.

While Turkey is relatively close to the Barzani government and might be willing to accept an independent Kurdistan strictly within the territory of the Iraqi KR, they are deeply concerned with the PKK presence in Sinjar and fearful of the Syrian Kurds, whom they hold to be in league with the PKK. Concerns that the Kurds in northeast Syria might link up with the Kurdish enclave in northwest Syria in large part forced the Turkish military intervention there. While the Syrian Kurds for the moment claim that they only want greater autonomy within Syria, not independence, the threat of a unified Kurdish state spanning Iraq and Syria might force Turkey to take further military action.

Kurdish independence would also fundamentally alter the makeup of a rump Iraqi state. Since 2005, Iraq’s presidency has been de facto reserved for Kurdish office holders and Kurdish parties hold about 20% of the seats in Iraq’s parliament. Without the KR, rump Iraq is a more uniformly Shi’a state and may fall even deeper into the arms of Iran, particularly if the U.S. is once again pushed to withdraw after the ISIS threat recedes.

There’s much that the U.S. can do to try to shape the outcome of this referendum to our liking over the next few months, making demands or assurances where necessary. But that would require a clear eyed vision of what our goals are and a strategy for achieving them that was lacking during the past administration and of which there are as yet no signs from the Trump administration.