Kerwin Swint's Blog, page 5
November 18, 2011
Debates Matter
This fall's Republican presidential debates seem to have had more of a direct impact on the candidates and their political fortunes than any nomination battle in recent memory – and by recent I mean the last 20 years or so.
Tim Pawlenty, Michelle Bachmann and Rick Perry's chances for the nomination have been severely damaged (or ended) by poor debate performances. Rick Perry seems to be going for the record book when it comes to horrifying debate and speaking skills.
On the other hand...
November 16, 2011
The Last Man Standing
The Republican Party, since about 1968, tends to nominate for president the candidate considered to be the "next in line." That is, the candidate who came in second in the previous party nomination contest four or eight years earlier, or the candidate who is best known nationally and serves as the "establishment" choice. If Mitt Romney wins the GOP nomination for president, he would be the latest in a long line of Republican candidates who won in large part because they had run before, they w...
November 12, 2011
Newt Gingrich, Our New UN Ambassador
People ask me if I think Newt Gingrich would be asked to serve in a cabinet role if he is not elected president – perhaps in a Romney administration. Well, he would make a lousy VP and would not be a good choice for most cabinet positions, simply because he would find it very hard to play second banana to any other Republican.
I can't see him as secretary of state, for example. For one thing, the SOS has to be a good negotiator. His negotiation skills have never been that good – reference...
November 4, 2011
Jon Stewart is right about at least one thing…
Mitt Romney might be the luckiest #@% on the planet. When your top three opponents for the presidential nomination are Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, you know you're living right. Regardless of the facts around Herman Cain's sexual harassment allegations, his candidacy may be irreparably damaged. I forgot about Rick Perry. But it's also possible that Rick Perry's entire candidacy is one long piece of performance art, in the mold of the actor Joaquin Phoenix – the idea being to...
October 19, 2011
GOP candidates tough, but likable?
The "western" GOP candidate debate in Nevada was the most contentious yet. Romney survived the onslaught, but just barely. He was on the defensive and off balance at times, coming close to asking moderator Anderson Cooper for help shutting up Rick Perry. Perry, clearly on the ropes as a candidate, had to attack Romney unmercifully, and he did. That's what has been missing from the previous debates. But Perry looked fairly petty, and unpresidential, in the process. Interrupting Romney, in...
October 10, 2011
Does Perry have a Reverend problem?
Remember the Rev. Jeremiah Wright? Barack Obama surely does. The Rev. Wright was a huge embarrassment to presidential candidate Obama in 2008, and was used by his opponents to make Obama seem extremist and radical. Well, Pastor Robert Jeffress, the southern Baptist minister from Texas and Rick Perry supporter, is doing one heck of an impersonation of Rev. Wright. The anti-Romney invective unleashed by Pastor Jeffress, disguised as anti-Mormon blather, threatens to embarrass Perry the same...
September 28, 2011
Cain Rising
Through his debate performances, Herman Cain may turn out to be the Mike Huckabee of this presidential election cycle. In 2008, the debates catapulted Huckabee to the top tier of candidates through his folksy, approachable style alongside McCain, Giuliani, and the rest of the 2008 horror show. People like Herman Cain because he is real, and he seems trustworthy, at least compared to the other candidates on stage beside him. Let's see where it takes him. His rise in the polls will surely...
August 26, 2011
Had a great time at my book talk
Last night I gave a talk and book signing for my recent book The King Whisperers. The talk was sponsored by Common Cause of Georgia, and was attended by some very smart and very nice people. It's fun to talk about your writing with people who get it and appreciate it. I look forward to more events in the future.
August 14, 2011
The Three-Legged Race
It's now a three-person race for the Republican nomination. Perry and Bachmann are competing for the right-wing anti-Romney slot. Eventually it will boil down to Romney vs. Perry. The Ames, Iowa straw poll is criticized as meaningless, but it at least clarified the race: Pawlenty is gone and Bachmann is strengthened.
But Bachmann will find it very difficult to rise much higher. She doesn't have Perry's experience, fundraising prowess, or his swagger. I do look for her to be a potential VP...
August 5, 2011
What it takes? Leadership…and luck.
What makes for a successful presidency? Why is it that some incumbent presidents are reelected rather easily, while some barely squeak by and others are actually defeated?
It's a strange combination of leadership and luck. I've often said that in politics, timing is everything. Most elected officials and political observers will admit, sometimes reluctantly, that luck and timing play significant roles in the political fortunes of politicians. But effective leadership can go along way in...
