Kerwin Swint's Blog, page 4

Republicans are in serious trouble

Well, Mitt Romney must be feeling unloved right about now. He keeps offering himself to his party as a president, and they keep throwing him back. He suffers somewhat from the "Jack Kemp" problem. Kemp was the former US Congressman from NY and Bush Admin. official (who had been a football star in the NFL). Kemp would have been a very appealing presidential candidate in the General Election, but he could never quite get there.

In this year' field of weak GOP presidential candidates, the...

Tumultous 2012 Politics Only the Beginning

Mitt Romney will be the 2012 presidential nominee. This has been evident for a while, but Romney's center-right political orientation and his Mormonism provided an opening, ever so slight, for a more conservative candidate. But that's over. None of the alternatives to Romney were credible, or savvy, enough to represent a serious threat.

So in the next weeks/months the Republican Party will morph into "Romney Country." He will be the guy, and the 2012 campaign will bear his stamp.

What of his ...

Newt needs to go back to Negative Campaigning school

As effective as the pro-Romney Super PAC's ads were against Gingrich in Iowa, Gingrich's broadsides against Romney have mostly fallen flat.

First, there is the loss of credibility in pledging not to go negative, then doing so with gusto when feeling desperate.

But one of the first rules of negative campaigning is to use ammunition that is believable, credible, documented, and relevant. And oh yes, avoid name calling.

In the last 10 days, Gingrich has called Romney a "Liar" and "unAmerican," a...

Romney Safe Unless Santorum Soars

Mitt Romney was not expected to win the Iowa caucuses until the last week, when most of the other candidates had imploded, exploded, or otherwise made themselves unelectable. He now has a chance to win the first two contests, Iowa and New Hampshire.

That bodes extremely well for his chances of being the Republican nominee. His main worry at this point should be South Carolina. He will win New Hampshire, his backyard. But when the contest moves south, social conservatism and Tea Party strength ...

See, Negative Campaigning Works.

I've written two books on negative campaigning; one on campaign tactics and one on the most vicious campaigns in history. A constant theme of my research and that of others' is that when used well, negative campaigning can be very effective. We're seeing evidence of that right now in Iowa.

Negative campaigning, of course, has a bad reputation and voters routinely say they don't like it and don't want to see it. But candidates keep using it for one simple reason: it works. If it's used...

Fox Style on Display in Debate

One of the interesting things about last night's presidential debate in Iowa was the tenacious and penetrating style of the Fox anchors and correspondents who moderated it. It is a much different style than the gentle prodding of CNN's Wolf Blitzer, or the know-it-all lecturing of NBC's Brian Williams.

In contrast to most debates this year, the Fox reporters pressed, cajoled, and in the case of Chris Wallace, came close to joining in the debate. The hard court press did yield some of the...

Newt to the Rescue (of Democrats?)

In 1994, President Bill Clinton had sunk to the bottom. He had lost his majority in Congress and he seemed very much like a one-termer. Then, a funny thing happened: Newt Gingrich came along and gave America a reason to take a second look at Bill Clinton. The Medicare/Govt. shutdown of 1995 sealed the deal. Gingrich had vastly overplayed his hand and looked small and petty. It helped Clinton remake himself just in time for the 1996 campaign. In other words, Clinton was lucky that Gingrich...

Unemployment's Down. Uh Oh.

If Barack Obama is reelected next year, and that's still an big if, we may all look back to December 2011 as the turning point.

Like most presidents in trouble, it has been the economy, and the scary financial situation facing the US and the world, making him vulnerable. And one of the most noticeable and powerful symbols of economic security/anxiety is the unemployment rate. It has been unacceptably and frustratingly high for several years.

New reports out today say the unemployment rate...

The Flip Flopping Olympics

GOP presidential candidate Newt Gingrich said today that he thought it was wrong for candidates to "radically change their positions" on the issues just to win an election. It was a pretty strong jab at Mitt Romney, who has changed his positions on some crucial issues over the years.

But if Professor Gingrich truly believes that statement, then I would like him to explain to me, and everyone else in the room, why he said in May of this year that he believed individuals should be required to p...

Some Republicans have lost their ever-loving minds

Over at National Review Online, Michael Walsh is so unimpressed with Mitt Romney, he is actually pining for the return of Sara Palin. No kidding, you can't make this stuff up, nobody would believe it.

And at the Weekly Standard Blog, Irving Kristol's kid has convinced himself that Newt Gingrich or, yes Sara Palin, would have a better shot at beating Obama than Massachusetts Mitt.

I'm assuming these are some of the same great minds who really thought Pat Buchanan deserved the nomination in...