Kerwin Swint's Blog, page 3

Obama Channels Bill Clinton (even the Gingrich attacks)

To get reelected, Barack Obama is following the Bill Clinton 1996 script. Clinton's task was easier, enjoying an economic bubble led by the dot.com boom, and facing a decidedly underwhelming opponent in Senator Bob Dole. But one of the features of the '96 Clinton effort that we will hear a lot this year, is how radical and dangerous those Republicans are.

Clinton routinely warned the nation in 1996 about the GOP's "risky tax schemes" and "anti-Medicare" proposals that would "explode the...

The South Hates Romney. Will it Matter?

If the polls are accurate, Rick Santorum is headed for a big win Saturday in Louisiana. That will make it almost a clean sweep for the Santorum/Gingrich (anti-Romney) faction of the party in the southern states. The only southern state Romney has won (of course Florida is not a southern state) is Virginia, and Santorum and Gingrich weren't on the ballot in VA.

It's not terribly surprising. Southern Republican primaries tend to be dominated by the one demographic most opposed to Romney...

Rick Santorum, Meet Jerry Brown

This morning I'm pondering the striking similarities between this year's Republican presidential primaries and the 1992 Democratic primaries that nominated Bill Clinton.

Think about it. Bill Clinton was the frontrunner, but a "weak" frontrunner. Party officials and many primary voters were concerned that his history of scandals (the draft and infidelity) would make it hard for him to beat incumbent President George H.W. Bush. There was a significant "anybody but Clinton" movement in the...

Here Comes Mr. Nice Guy

The competitive phase of the GOP presidential nomination race is effectively over. No, Mitt Romney hasn't put it away yet, but who could, given the elongated primary/caucus system this year? The Super PACs all but guarantee that marginal or even long-shot candidates can stay in the race as long as the money keeps flowing.

But the likelihood is, neither Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, or anyone else, will be in a position to deny Romney the nomination in Tampa – even if no candidate has a...

What Does Ron Paul Want?

Ron Paul knows that he will never be elected president. The man is not dumb. In fact he's pretty sharp. Currently, he's in fourth place in a field of four. But he is by no means out of the game.

He is not running for president so much as he is leading a movement aimed at two main goals in my view: 1) building up Libertarianism as a leading force for ideas and perspective in the nation's political dialogue; and 2) making serious and long-lasting inroads into the national Republican Party.

We'll...

A Brokered Convention? What a Horror Show!

Republicans hoping for a brokered convention in Tampa this August like to live dangerously. A brokered convention, or even an "open" contested convention, would be just about the worst possible outcome from the 2012 primaries. Why? It is the opposite of what you want heading into a fall campaign against an incumbent president flush with campaign cash.

What you would like to have is a strong candidate, one who prevailed in a majority of the primaries (even if it took a while), a candidate who ...

Party Like its 1996!

Republicans are starting to get that queasy feeling. You know, that feeling in the pit of the stomach when they realized that Bob Dole was going to be the presidential nominee going up against Bill Clinton. No, there isn't going to be a President Santorum.

But at this rate, there won't be a President Romney either. I'm straining to remember the last time a major party ran away so persistently from its presumed front-runner – unless it was President George HW Bush in 1992.

Republicans wanted t...

If Romney is the GOP’s Hillary Clinton, who is the Obama?

Romney had a bad night. Conservatives, particularly evangelicals, still don’t like him. He has performed poorly in the midwest thus far, not a good omen for a general election, where the midwest is crucial. The Romney campaign minimizes the losses in MN, MO, and CO, saying they are caucus states with not many delegates at stake. That sounds a good bit like the Hillary Clinton campaign of 2008, in which her campaign underestimated the role of the caucus states, much to Obama’s delight and late...

If Romney is the GOP's Hillary Clinton, who is the Obama?

Romney had a bad night. Conservatives, particularly evangelicals, still don't like him. He has performed poorly in the midwest thus far, not a good omen for a general election, where the midwest is crucial. The Romney campaign minimizes the losses in MN, MO, and CO, saying they are caucus states with not many delegates at stake. That sounds a good bit like the Hillary Clinton campaign of 2008, in which her campaign underestimated the role of the caucus states, much to Obama's delight and...

Fall Election a Referendum or a Choice?

The Obama White House does not want the fall presidential campaign to be a referendum on President Obama's time in office, as most presidential reelection campaigns are. Because if it is, he is extremely vulnerable. Rather, the Obama team will try to make the campaign narrative a "choice" between Obama's "bold, 21st century" leadership and the "cold, heartless, corporate" Mitt Romney. I can hear it now: "Don't turn the clock back," Obama surrogates will say.

Currently, swing state polls show ...