Dmitry Orlov's Blog, page 15
January 14, 2014
In Praise of Nomads
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Leah GibersonFor the past couple of months we have been living with a tent pitched over our boat. It is what most people who live on boats in northern climates choose to do. When the weather starts turning cold, people erect frames, usually consisting of a ridge pole that runs the length of the boat, sloping fore and aft, supported by a few poles and a network of straps run out to the stanchions. Each boat requires a slightly different arrangement. Once the frame is ready, the shrink-wrap goes on, barn-raising style. The plastic is, trimmed, tucked under straps that run around the hull and welded to itself to make a single whole. Once the plastic is on securely, it is shrunk, creating a translucent dome over the entire boat. The welding and the shrinking are done using with a large propane-fired heat gun in one hand and a welding glove on the other. The effect is to cut heating bills more than in half, because during the day, even an overcast day, the greenhouse effect makes the temperature on deck quite comfortable, allowing people to turn off the heating, open hatches and air out the boat. Even on a frosty day it is usually warm enough to sit in the cockpit in shorts and a t-shirt. The dome also allows winter clothing, supplies and many other things to be stored on deck rather than in the cabin, freeing up scarce space down below. When the spring comes, the plastic is cut up and recycled, and the frame is dismantled. Read more »
Leah GibersonFor the past couple of months we have been living with a tent pitched over our boat. It is what most people who live on boats in northern climates choose to do. When the weather starts turning cold, people erect frames, usually consisting of a ridge pole that runs the length of the boat, sloping fore and aft, supported by a few poles and a network of straps run out to the stanchions. Each boat requires a slightly different arrangement. Once the frame is ready, the shrink-wrap goes on, barn-raising style. The plastic is, trimmed, tucked under straps that run around the hull and welded to itself to make a single whole. Once the plastic is on securely, it is shrunk, creating a translucent dome over the entire boat. The welding and the shrinking are done using with a large propane-fired heat gun in one hand and a welding glove on the other. The effect is to cut heating bills more than in half, because during the day, even an overcast day, the greenhouse effect makes the temperature on deck quite comfortable, allowing people to turn off the heating, open hatches and air out the boat. Even on a frosty day it is usually warm enough to sit in the cockpit in shorts and a t-shirt. The dome also allows winter clothing, supplies and many other things to be stored on deck rather than in the cabin, freeing up scarce space down below. When the spring comes, the plastic is cut up and recycled, and the frame is dismantled. Read more »
January 6, 2014
Exodus to Yellowknife
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YellowknifeOnce in a while I get a book in the mail that I haven't purchased. This is often a pleasant surprise, since I rip through books the way most people go through salted peanuts, and having more reading matter laying around rarely hurts. I do eventually read most of them. The exceptions so far have been a few self-published books sent to me by batshit-crazy authors who have zero chance of getting published. And when the book is a recent release sent to me by a publisher, I incur a debt of gratitude which I discharge by writing a review. And although the publisher is looking to pick up a ringing endorsement from me, I feel free-ish to actually express what I think.
Such is the case with my book du jour, sent to me by my contact at New Society Publishers: Gilles Slade's American Exodus, published just three months ago, cheerfully subtitled Climate Change and the Coming Fight for Survival. To get the unpleasantly honest part out of the way, let me just say that it is an uneven work—written well, edited badly. The same good points are made repeatedly in eerily similar ways throughout the book. Each chapter reads like a conversation with Slade, focusing on some specific topic, but meandering to encompass the rest along the way. A good editor would have taken a scalpel to this manuscript, eliminating the repetitions.
Slade is a West Coast Canadian who loves California, and his focus is the northern half of Western Hemisphere. He does mention the heat wave in Europe that killed thousands, and another in the Moscow region, but these are tangential to his pursuit. When he says “we,” he means “we the North Americans.” His world view consists of two slices of whole grain bread—Canada and Mexico, with a fat, juicy slice of baloney sandwiched between them. According to his research the climate of the future does not bode well for the lower slice or the baloney.
Bottom to top, Mexico will turn into a scorched desert where no food crops can be grown. The prairie states of the US will likewise turn into an unproductive dustbowl raked flat by ever-larger tornados, and the depletion of the Ogallala aquifer will spell the end of agriculture even in places where climatic conditions permit. Agriculture in the Central Valley of California, where much of the country's produce is grown, is likewise going to shut down due to lack of water for irrigation. Meanwhile, rising ocean levels coupled with increasingly energetic North Atlantic hurricanes will destroy much of the East Coast, where half the population and much of the wealth is concentrated. Similar effects will be felt in Canada: the Maritimes will partially submerge, and the prairie provinces will wither in the summer heat and blow away. But Canada, being the country with the second largest amount of land (after Russia), with much of it far to the north, where temperatures will remain moderate, will, Slade thinks, remain survivable longer; hence his plug for Yellowknife.
Photo credit: Matt ContiIn case you believe that nothing particularly dramatic will happen within your or your children's lifetime, perhaps you should look around. I have: above is a picture of what a part of Boston waterfront looked like during the New Year nor’easter: Boston is becoming like Venice, where Piazza San Marco is routinely awash during winter storms. A few more feet of sea level rise, and seawater will circumvent Charles River Locks, at which point high tides will inundate Back Bay, making Downtown into an island once again. The problem is much the same up and down the coast. In 2012 we had pictures of cars smashing about in the storm surge in Lower Manhattan and the Jersey Coast transformed into a pile of debris by Hurricane Sandy. Manhattan, where a great deal of wealth and activity is concentrated, is connected to the mainland by tunnels; rising sea levels will put the tunnel entrances below the high tide line, putting a damper on the activities. Further down the coast, Charleston is perhaps just one major hurricane away from being wiped out.
Taking all of this in, Slade makes an important point that goes beyond just anticipating all of this destruction: he thinks that as each part of the North American continent ceases to be survivable, their populations will relocate to more survivable places—hence the term “exodus.” First, Mexicans will flee to the US, in a well-rehearsed pattern. Then California and the prairie and desert states of the US will lose the rest of their populations (they have been depopulating for some time already, and this trend will only accelerate). Finally, all of this displaced humanity will slosh across the border into Canada, completely overwhelming the relatively tiny Canadian population.
Slade avoids discussing the practicalities and the mechanics of these mass migrations—what sort of military action will accompany the opening of the US-Mexico border, for instance—but the outline is visible. Projections are that 2050 US will be a majority-Hispanic country. That majority is unlikely to favor maintaining the Great Wall of Mexico. As far as Canada's chances of controlling immigration, they are scant: most Canadians live along the indefensible US border, well within artillery range of it. Most of their trade is cross-border. Faced with a crisis of the magnitude Slade foresees, the idea of making a stand for Canada's sovereignty will no doubt come to be seen as silly.
Most life forms tend to be preoccupied with the continuation of their blood line, and I assume that you are no exception. You may or may not concur with Slade's dire prognosis, but if you don't then I assume that you have done your own research and, if it happened to be fact-based, inevitably came to similar conclusions, in which case your disagreements with Slade's analysis are likely to be minor. And in that case you would probably like to know where to resettle your children before entire countries set of on a death march to lands unknown.
I do have such a plan, and it is simple. My son has a certain piece of paper, which I have gone through some pains to secure for him, and which grants him the birthright to some 17 million square kilometers of prime real estate, much of it quite far to the north (compared to Canada's paltry 5.4 million square kilometers). That piece of paper is called a Russian passport.
Slade's analysis concentrates just on North America, but I think North America will be a basket case and find it more worthwhile to look at the planet as a whole, and sort countries into three columns: “destroyed,” “devastated” and “damaged.” A lot of countries definitely belong in the “destroyed” column: island nations like Palau or Kiribati that are in the process of becoming ocean shoal nations, as well as nations irrigated by rivers that are fed by rapidly disappearing glaciers, like Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh and quite a few others. They will experience a decade of floods as the glaciers rapidly melt, followed by permanent drought. Next are the “devastated” countries; these are perhaps survivable, but for a much smaller and much more miserable population. I suppose that Slade is right and that Canada will be “devastated” because of incursions by its “destroyed” neighbors to the south across its long and tactically indefensible southern border. Russia, I believe, will be “damaged:” yes, there will be huge environmental problems—peat bogs and boreal forests on fire, gigantic floods, loss of coastal cities (St. Petersburg won't be able to hide behind its dam forever)—but Russia will, by and large, remain survivable for a great many people. Nor is it likely to be invaded: every invasion attempt since Genghis Khan's has gone badly for the invader. There will be large numbers of people moving into Russia's vast empty spaces from abroad, but only to the extent permitted by the Federal Migration Service.
If you don't like this analysis, or if my plan doesn't appeal to you, then do your own analysis, and make your own plan. And if you don't know where to start, then maybe Slade's book will get you started.
YellowknifeOnce in a while I get a book in the mail that I haven't purchased. This is often a pleasant surprise, since I rip through books the way most people go through salted peanuts, and having more reading matter laying around rarely hurts. I do eventually read most of them. The exceptions so far have been a few self-published books sent to me by batshit-crazy authors who have zero chance of getting published. And when the book is a recent release sent to me by a publisher, I incur a debt of gratitude which I discharge by writing a review. And although the publisher is looking to pick up a ringing endorsement from me, I feel free-ish to actually express what I think.Such is the case with my book du jour, sent to me by my contact at New Society Publishers: Gilles Slade's American Exodus, published just three months ago, cheerfully subtitled Climate Change and the Coming Fight for Survival. To get the unpleasantly honest part out of the way, let me just say that it is an uneven work—written well, edited badly. The same good points are made repeatedly in eerily similar ways throughout the book. Each chapter reads like a conversation with Slade, focusing on some specific topic, but meandering to encompass the rest along the way. A good editor would have taken a scalpel to this manuscript, eliminating the repetitions.
Slade is a West Coast Canadian who loves California, and his focus is the northern half of Western Hemisphere. He does mention the heat wave in Europe that killed thousands, and another in the Moscow region, but these are tangential to his pursuit. When he says “we,” he means “we the North Americans.” His world view consists of two slices of whole grain bread—Canada and Mexico, with a fat, juicy slice of baloney sandwiched between them. According to his research the climate of the future does not bode well for the lower slice or the baloney.
Bottom to top, Mexico will turn into a scorched desert where no food crops can be grown. The prairie states of the US will likewise turn into an unproductive dustbowl raked flat by ever-larger tornados, and the depletion of the Ogallala aquifer will spell the end of agriculture even in places where climatic conditions permit. Agriculture in the Central Valley of California, where much of the country's produce is grown, is likewise going to shut down due to lack of water for irrigation. Meanwhile, rising ocean levels coupled with increasingly energetic North Atlantic hurricanes will destroy much of the East Coast, where half the population and much of the wealth is concentrated. Similar effects will be felt in Canada: the Maritimes will partially submerge, and the prairie provinces will wither in the summer heat and blow away. But Canada, being the country with the second largest amount of land (after Russia), with much of it far to the north, where temperatures will remain moderate, will, Slade thinks, remain survivable longer; hence his plug for Yellowknife.
Photo credit: Matt ContiIn case you believe that nothing particularly dramatic will happen within your or your children's lifetime, perhaps you should look around. I have: above is a picture of what a part of Boston waterfront looked like during the New Year nor’easter: Boston is becoming like Venice, where Piazza San Marco is routinely awash during winter storms. A few more feet of sea level rise, and seawater will circumvent Charles River Locks, at which point high tides will inundate Back Bay, making Downtown into an island once again. The problem is much the same up and down the coast. In 2012 we had pictures of cars smashing about in the storm surge in Lower Manhattan and the Jersey Coast transformed into a pile of debris by Hurricane Sandy. Manhattan, where a great deal of wealth and activity is concentrated, is connected to the mainland by tunnels; rising sea levels will put the tunnel entrances below the high tide line, putting a damper on the activities. Further down the coast, Charleston is perhaps just one major hurricane away from being wiped out.Taking all of this in, Slade makes an important point that goes beyond just anticipating all of this destruction: he thinks that as each part of the North American continent ceases to be survivable, their populations will relocate to more survivable places—hence the term “exodus.” First, Mexicans will flee to the US, in a well-rehearsed pattern. Then California and the prairie and desert states of the US will lose the rest of their populations (they have been depopulating for some time already, and this trend will only accelerate). Finally, all of this displaced humanity will slosh across the border into Canada, completely overwhelming the relatively tiny Canadian population.
Slade avoids discussing the practicalities and the mechanics of these mass migrations—what sort of military action will accompany the opening of the US-Mexico border, for instance—but the outline is visible. Projections are that 2050 US will be a majority-Hispanic country. That majority is unlikely to favor maintaining the Great Wall of Mexico. As far as Canada's chances of controlling immigration, they are scant: most Canadians live along the indefensible US border, well within artillery range of it. Most of their trade is cross-border. Faced with a crisis of the magnitude Slade foresees, the idea of making a stand for Canada's sovereignty will no doubt come to be seen as silly.
Most life forms tend to be preoccupied with the continuation of their blood line, and I assume that you are no exception. You may or may not concur with Slade's dire prognosis, but if you don't then I assume that you have done your own research and, if it happened to be fact-based, inevitably came to similar conclusions, in which case your disagreements with Slade's analysis are likely to be minor. And in that case you would probably like to know where to resettle your children before entire countries set of on a death march to lands unknown.
I do have such a plan, and it is simple. My son has a certain piece of paper, which I have gone through some pains to secure for him, and which grants him the birthright to some 17 million square kilometers of prime real estate, much of it quite far to the north (compared to Canada's paltry 5.4 million square kilometers). That piece of paper is called a Russian passport.
Slade's analysis concentrates just on North America, but I think North America will be a basket case and find it more worthwhile to look at the planet as a whole, and sort countries into three columns: “destroyed,” “devastated” and “damaged.” A lot of countries definitely belong in the “destroyed” column: island nations like Palau or Kiribati that are in the process of becoming ocean shoal nations, as well as nations irrigated by rivers that are fed by rapidly disappearing glaciers, like Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, Pakistan, Bangladesh and quite a few others. They will experience a decade of floods as the glaciers rapidly melt, followed by permanent drought. Next are the “devastated” countries; these are perhaps survivable, but for a much smaller and much more miserable population. I suppose that Slade is right and that Canada will be “devastated” because of incursions by its “destroyed” neighbors to the south across its long and tactically indefensible southern border. Russia, I believe, will be “damaged:” yes, there will be huge environmental problems—peat bogs and boreal forests on fire, gigantic floods, loss of coastal cities (St. Petersburg won't be able to hide behind its dam forever)—but Russia will, by and large, remain survivable for a great many people. Nor is it likely to be invaded: every invasion attempt since Genghis Khan's has gone badly for the invader. There will be large numbers of people moving into Russia's vast empty spaces from abroad, but only to the extent permitted by the Federal Migration Service.
If you don't like this analysis, or if my plan doesn't appeal to you, then do your own analysis, and make your own plan. And if you don't know where to start, then maybe Slade's book will get you started.
January 5, 2014
Underground Nuclear Explosion At Crippled Japan Atomic Plant Shocks World
[This just in! Thank you Albert.]An ominous edict issued from the Office of the President of Russia today to all Ministries of the Russian Government ordering that all “past, present and future” information relating to Japan’s Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster now be rated at the highest classification level “Of Special Importance” states that this condition is “immediately and urgently needed” due to a series of underground nuclear explosions occurring at this crippled atomic plant on 31 December as confirmed by the Ministry of Defense (MoD).
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December 30, 2013
Predictions for 2014
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Works fine, don't worry!The calendar ticking over into the next year is a traditional occasion to draw some conclusions and make some predictions. Lots of people take this to mean that they should talk about where they think the stock market will go, or how much gold bullion will cost, or what the cost of oil will be. And although I find such matters quite tedious, this year I will indulge them and do the same.
The equation that best describes the stock market at the moment is y=mt+b, a.k.a. the first order linear equation. Meaning, some market index or other (y) must be roughly equal to some fudge factor m(called the slope) times time t plus some base offset b(called the intercept). The way I imagine that works is, a bunch of gnomes that inhabit the entrails of big finance and have access to an endless supply of newly printed dollars lean on the "buy" button periodically to make sure that the index increases monotonically. (Actually, the gnomes might be robots, in which case we could all go extinct and the stock market would still continue to go up.) So, my prediction is that this will continue happening until something breaks. Nobody knows when it will break, or why, because printing money and using it to prop up the price of stocks is a brilliant business plan that can continue working forever. Yes, I know that some people are pointing out that nothing goes up forever. Look at the housing bubble circa 2008, they say, or the internet stock bubble circa 2000. Bubbles always pop, they say. Naysayers! Well, what I want to say to these naysayers is this: This Time It's Different. This is a new and amazing breakthrough: infinite wealth creation is now achievable through infinite money printing. It's like the Singularity! (Remember, you heard it here first.)
As far as the price of gold, the picture is also quite clear: it will stay roughly the same, because similar gnomes have the job of hammering it down whenever it shows signs of exceeding a certain threshold. Doing so is not necessarily a money-making proposition for them, but then who needs to make money when you can just print it? Again, this is a sound business plan with bright prospects as far as the eye can see. There is just one little snag: in places where actual savings do exist, people are switching out of dollars and into physical gold, meaning that at some point the cupboard will be bare, no matter what the price, resulting in something called market failure. Since physical gold cannot be willed into existence, and is currently selling for less than it costs to mine it and refine it, this is potentially a problem. Still, my prediction is that the price of gold will remain fixed, until the fix is off, but nobody knows when that will be, not even I.
Now, the price of oil is even simpler to forecast: it will be between $100 and $150 a barrel, roughly. It may briefly dive to as low as $20 a barrel, but that won't last. The past few years have allowed us to empirically determine that $100/bbl is the price that's necessary to keep the oil flowing in the quantities required to keep the economy humming along, now that all the supergiant fields are in depletion and all the new fields are super-expensive and involve deep-sea drilling or fracking or other expensive and/or risky ventures. Now, you might think that keeping the oil flowing in the quantities required to keep the economy humming along may turn out to be problematic at some point. Never fear! All that has to happen in case of a shortfall is that a bunch more workers suddenly get laid off. Yes, this will briefly affect the unemployment rate, but only until their unemployment benefits expire. After that it will only affect the labor participation rate, which has been trending toward zero, but nobody ever looks at it, so it doesn't matter. When people get laid off, suddenly they are not driving to work or consuming beyond what their paltry SNAP and WIC benefits allows them to consume. This causes oil consumption to drop and the economy is in balance again. At the other extreme, $150/bbl is sufficient to put the breaks on the economy for an entirely separate set of reasons: when expenditure on oil rises above some magic percentage of GDP (empirically determined) expenditure on everything that isn't oil drops enough to curtail economic activity, in turn curtailing oil consumption. So, you see, the system is self-regulating, and can continue this way forever. Until it can't. But nobody knows when that will be, not even I.
The whole thing sort of reminds me of the electricity supply situation on my boat. The picture above is of the electric plug and socket through which up to 30A of juice at 110V flows to my boat from the electric grid on shore. Every month the meter is read, and my credit card is charged for the correct amount. This, I think, can go on forever. In the interests of full disclosure, I do need to tell you that there was a funny plastic burning smell late last night, and some strange buzzing and then snap-crackle-pop sort of thing going on, but it didn't last long. And after that everything was fine again. I did end up having to spend oh maybe ten minutes stripping and splicing electrical cables, but that's OK, I don't mind. So, don't you worry, the system is resilient and self-regulating and can go on and on. Until it can't. But nobody knows when that will be. Not even I.
Happy New Year!
Works fine, don't worry!The calendar ticking over into the next year is a traditional occasion to draw some conclusions and make some predictions. Lots of people take this to mean that they should talk about where they think the stock market will go, or how much gold bullion will cost, or what the cost of oil will be. And although I find such matters quite tedious, this year I will indulge them and do the same. The equation that best describes the stock market at the moment is y=mt+b, a.k.a. the first order linear equation. Meaning, some market index or other (y) must be roughly equal to some fudge factor m(called the slope) times time t plus some base offset b(called the intercept). The way I imagine that works is, a bunch of gnomes that inhabit the entrails of big finance and have access to an endless supply of newly printed dollars lean on the "buy" button periodically to make sure that the index increases monotonically. (Actually, the gnomes might be robots, in which case we could all go extinct and the stock market would still continue to go up.) So, my prediction is that this will continue happening until something breaks. Nobody knows when it will break, or why, because printing money and using it to prop up the price of stocks is a brilliant business plan that can continue working forever. Yes, I know that some people are pointing out that nothing goes up forever. Look at the housing bubble circa 2008, they say, or the internet stock bubble circa 2000. Bubbles always pop, they say. Naysayers! Well, what I want to say to these naysayers is this: This Time It's Different. This is a new and amazing breakthrough: infinite wealth creation is now achievable through infinite money printing. It's like the Singularity! (Remember, you heard it here first.)
As far as the price of gold, the picture is also quite clear: it will stay roughly the same, because similar gnomes have the job of hammering it down whenever it shows signs of exceeding a certain threshold. Doing so is not necessarily a money-making proposition for them, but then who needs to make money when you can just print it? Again, this is a sound business plan with bright prospects as far as the eye can see. There is just one little snag: in places where actual savings do exist, people are switching out of dollars and into physical gold, meaning that at some point the cupboard will be bare, no matter what the price, resulting in something called market failure. Since physical gold cannot be willed into existence, and is currently selling for less than it costs to mine it and refine it, this is potentially a problem. Still, my prediction is that the price of gold will remain fixed, until the fix is off, but nobody knows when that will be, not even I.
Now, the price of oil is even simpler to forecast: it will be between $100 and $150 a barrel, roughly. It may briefly dive to as low as $20 a barrel, but that won't last. The past few years have allowed us to empirically determine that $100/bbl is the price that's necessary to keep the oil flowing in the quantities required to keep the economy humming along, now that all the supergiant fields are in depletion and all the new fields are super-expensive and involve deep-sea drilling or fracking or other expensive and/or risky ventures. Now, you might think that keeping the oil flowing in the quantities required to keep the economy humming along may turn out to be problematic at some point. Never fear! All that has to happen in case of a shortfall is that a bunch more workers suddenly get laid off. Yes, this will briefly affect the unemployment rate, but only until their unemployment benefits expire. After that it will only affect the labor participation rate, which has been trending toward zero, but nobody ever looks at it, so it doesn't matter. When people get laid off, suddenly they are not driving to work or consuming beyond what their paltry SNAP and WIC benefits allows them to consume. This causes oil consumption to drop and the economy is in balance again. At the other extreme, $150/bbl is sufficient to put the breaks on the economy for an entirely separate set of reasons: when expenditure on oil rises above some magic percentage of GDP (empirically determined) expenditure on everything that isn't oil drops enough to curtail economic activity, in turn curtailing oil consumption. So, you see, the system is self-regulating, and can continue this way forever. Until it can't. But nobody knows when that will be, not even I.
The whole thing sort of reminds me of the electricity supply situation on my boat. The picture above is of the electric plug and socket through which up to 30A of juice at 110V flows to my boat from the electric grid on shore. Every month the meter is read, and my credit card is charged for the correct amount. This, I think, can go on forever. In the interests of full disclosure, I do need to tell you that there was a funny plastic burning smell late last night, and some strange buzzing and then snap-crackle-pop sort of thing going on, but it didn't last long. And after that everything was fine again. I did end up having to spend oh maybe ten minutes stripping and splicing electrical cables, but that's OK, I don't mind. So, don't you worry, the system is resilient and self-regulating and can go on and on. Until it can't. But nobody knows when that will be. Not even I.
Happy New Year!
December 23, 2013
A Sea Gypsy Christmas
[There's just two days left to go for the Unspell Fundraiser. If you haven't donated yet, please do, and future generations of children will thank you for it. Meanwhile, here is a lovely guest post by Ray Jason.]It is Christmastime down here in the Banana Latitudes. Far to the north in the Frenzied Latitudes, the shoppers are body-slamming each other with vigor and venom. In a little Panamanian town square, I savor the sight of the Indio families in from the hills letting their children marvel at the lights and the decorations. Compared to El Norte, it is all so calm and unhurried and moderate. Surely gifts will be exchanged on the big day, but there is none of the fevered gluttony for stuff that soils the holidays in the First World.
As I leave the park to head back to AVENTURA, a faint, sweet music whispers from the little chapel across the street. I cross over and answer its call. It is a choir of children practicing Christmas carols. The beauty and innocence on their faces is enough to inspire a Leonardo to reach for his canvas and brushes. I am spellbound by the sound of these old English folk songs exquisitely rendered in Spanish. Their last song is a playful version of “The Twelve Days of Christmas.”
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December 20, 2013
Christmas Carols Unspelled
BanksyJoseph and Mary
on way to Bethlehem/* Generated by Font Squirrel (http://www.fontsquirrel.com) on November 21, 2013 */ @font-face { font-family: 'unspellregular'; src: url('http://www.soundimagemotion.com/unspe... } @font-face { font-family: 'unspellregular'; src: 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) format('woff'), url('http://www.soundimagemotion.com/unspe...') format('truetype'); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; } h1.unspell, h2.unspell, h3.unspell, p.unspell, div.unspell, ol.unspell, ul.unspell, p.unspell, span.unspell, body.unspell { font-family: 'unspellregular'; } It being Christmas, here are some unspelled Christmas carols. The juxtaposition of the very familiar and the very unfamiliar seems to be a helpful one. They are also available in PDF format, complete with the magic decoder card: Download PDF.
Tek Yb RolSTek Yb RolS MhY PWS oF ROli,
fa la la la la, la la la la.
thS Yb sISon tq Pi JOli,
fa la la la la, la la la la.
TOn Mi nW wd KC bpVoel,
fa la la, la la la, la la la.
trOl Yb Cnzent LUl tXT kVrol,
fa la la la la, la la la la.
sI Yb PlCShN LUl PefOr bs,
fa la la la la, la la la la.
strXk Yb RArp vnT JOLn Yb KOrus,
fa la la la la, la la la la.
fOlg mI hn mEoi MEZd,
fa la la la la, la la la la.
MXl x tEl oF LUl tXT trEZd,
fa la la la la, la la la la.
fVst bMC Yb GlT LId pVseS,
fa la la la la, la la la la.
RCl Yb nLu, Li lVTs vnT lVseS,
fa la la la la, la la la la.
sHN Mi JOLbs, ol tqKEYd,
fa la la la la, la la la la.
RITles oF Yb MHnT vnT MEYd,
fa la la la la, la la la la.
Read more »
December 17, 2013
December 16, 2013
American Collapse, Recovery or Whatever
[Guest post by Makeda. Admitting to the reality of collapse would, for many people, mean biting the hand that feeds them, even as that hand feeds them less and less, making them wonder if the hand itself might be edible... which it is.]P { margin-bottom: 0.“Don’t call me a whore!” a friend wrote me angrily. She was correcting me, explaining that her current work was not true prostitution because it only involved massage and hand jobs. I hadn’t paid attention to precise nomenclature as I was trying to convince her to quit. My point was that by working as a prosti…prostassage therapist she might severely limit her future employment possibilities. She was furious that I had lumped her in with women who walk the streets.
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December 13, 2013
China Pushes Back Against English Language
There is a movement afoot in China to strip English language of its status by dropping the English language requirement from the Gaokao (China's national higher education entrance examination). Typical reaction:How many Chinese have been hurt by the English education? It should have been abolished long ago. English is a language and should be studied as such. But Chinese students force themselves to remember the English vocabularies as imprinted signs for exam purposes...The problem, as far as I understand it, is not with spoken English, which is actually quite simple and quite useful for communicating with people around the world. The problem is with English being taught as a written language, forcing Chinese students to memorize thousands of arbitrary sequences of Latin characters of which written English is composed. By a standard measure of phoneme-grapheme correspondence, English spelling is less than 1% phonetic, compared to 99% for Spanish and Italian, 95% for Russian and 90% for German.
Perhaps the Beijing Municipal Education Commission and China's Intelligence Research Academy would enjoy taking a look at Project Unspell. Why make students attempt to decipher spelled English when they can achieve the same results by learning 39 new characters and using a piece of software?
Project Unspell in the News
Spreading the word...
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