Ages of Discord Quotes

“the age-structure of human populations is characterized by smoothly overlapping generations, without any clear-cut break points between them. We cannot simply impose generations on human social systems; we need to investigate mathematically whether they will arise naturally as a result of age-structured population and social dynamics.”
― Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

“Just because we cannot imagine our actions leading to disaster, it doesn’t mean that such a disaster cannot happen.”
― Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

“External war often played an important role in increasing or sustaining cooperation among the elites, as well as cooperation between the elites, the state, and sometimes even commoners. During integrative phases, governments in collaboration with the elites often used external war to bring about periods of national consolidation. Additionally, successful wars of conquest yielded abundant rewards to be shared between the state and the elites.”
― Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

“During disintegrative trend reversals, these processes work in reverse. Abatement of elite overproduction decreases intraelite competition. Additionally, there is another curious dynamic that tends to increase intraelite homogeneity, the “closing of the patriciate”, in which the established elites close their ranks to newcomers and dramatically reduce, or even reverse upward social mobility.”
― Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

“These four mechanisms, (1) competition between groups, (2) competition within groups, (3) cultural distance between competing groups, and (4) cultural homogeneity within groups are not the only processes that can affect the spread of cooperation norms.”
― Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

“the Jívaro of South America recognize two different types of armed conflict. Wars waged against other Jívaro are essentially lengthy blood feuds, in which deaths are limited. Conflicts between neighboring tribes that “speak differently”, on the other hand, typically take the form of “wars of extermination”. Recently, I collected data on the historical incidence of genocide, focusing on the fates of populations of cities falling to a siege, or assault. The data indicate that genocide was an order of magnitude more frequent in wars between culturally very dissimilar steppe nomads and settled agriculturalists, compared with civil wars between culturally similar groups (Turchin 2011).”
― Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

“one of the most reliable predictors of state collapse and high political instability is elite overproduction (Turchin and Nefedov 2009:314).”
― Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

“epidemics and even pandemics strike disproportionately often during the disintegrative phases of secular cycles (Turchin 2008b). Instability also has a negative impact on the productive capacity of a society. Lacking strong government to protect them, peasants cultivate only fields that are near fortified settlements or other strongpoints (e.g., hilltop settlements). Conversely, the strong state protects the productive population from external and internal (banditry, civil war) threats, and thus allows the whole cultivable area to be put into production.”
― Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

“the dynamical pattern characterizing sociopolitical instability in historical societies (see, for example Figure 1.1) is more complex than just a sequence of secular integrative (relatively stable) and disintegrative (relatively unstable) phases. The jagged, “saw-toothed” nature of the trajectory suggests that there is another, shorter cycle superimposed on the longer multi-century oscillations.”
― Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

“As a result, periods of intense conflict tend to recur with a period of roughly two generations (40–60 years). These swings in the social mood may be termed “bi-generation cycles” because they involve alternating generations that are either prone to conflict, or not.”
― Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History

“Mathematical theory tells us that when a dynamical system has two kinds of nonlinear feedback loop with different periods, these two mechanisms are likely to interact nonlinearly and may generate erratic, unpredictable-looking behavior known as mathematical chaos (Gleick 1987).”
― Peter Turchin, Ages of Discord: A Structural-Demographic Analysis of American History