A Spy's Guide to Thinking Quotes

“That’s the chain of thinking: D-A-D-A. Getting data leads to analysis. Analysis leads to a decision. A decision leads to an action. Simple. That’s how thinking works.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“If thinking doesn’t end with action, it’s useless.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Actions, no matter how small, commit us to a particular path.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“The first question should always be, “What kind of game do they think we’re playing?”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“If thinking doesn’t end with action, it’s useless. Taking action is why we think.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Without good analysis, we can’t make good decisions. Without good analysis, we can’t even figure out what our options are.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“We live in a fog of uncertainty. Good thinking removes some of the fog. Never all of it.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“The best way to win a zero-sum game is to be good at positive-sum games.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Data-Analysis-Decision-Action chain.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Because secret data starts a process that leads to certain kinds of action.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Thinking is cheap. Action is expensive.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Living with ambiguity, as you learn in the CIA, is how you survive. So is good strategy. Good strategy means using thinking tools effectively. Choosing the right option. Making the right decisions.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“You’ll notice something interesting about the way scientists think: they don’t start with data. They start with a hypothesis. Then they go to the data.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“If they don’t do a good job collecting data, filtering it, prioritizing it and combining it with existing knowledge, they won’t make the right decision. If they don’t make the right decision, it doesn’t matter how much they spend on action. They’re doing the wrong thing.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“You’ll notice something interesting about the way scientists think: they don’t start with data. They start with a hypothesis. Then they go to the data.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“The scientific method says: Develop a hypothesis, test it and observe the results. With results in hand, decide whether your hypothesis was correct.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Thinking, in its simplest form, looks like this:”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Good strategy means using thinking tools effectively. Choosing the right option. Making the right decisions.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Thinking is what this short book is about. We’ve talked about two tools that help. The Data-Analysis-Decision-Action chain helps us focus on where we might have holes in our thinking. Have we gathered the right data? Are we analyzing it correctly? Are we making the right decisions, as a result? Are our actions in line with our decisions? The Positive-sum/Zero-sum/Negative-sum framework helps us think ahead.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“The short answer: Saddam Hussein wanted Iran to think he had WMD in order to deter attacks. But he didn’t want anyone inside Iraq to actually possess WMD. Because whoever had the WMD inside Iraq could use it to threaten Saddam Hussein’s grip on power.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“The CIA’s mission was to centralize the process of intelligence-gathering and delivery to decision-makers. It was to be sure the Data-Analysis-Decision-Action chain worked.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“The first step to winning a zero-sum game is to know it’s coming. It’s why spies work in peacetime. To be a tripwire. To give an alert when peace is about to become war. It’s why the CIA was formed in the first place.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Best of all, the games shortcut gets us closer to the Holy Grail of thinking: predicting what others will do next.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Whatever the context, positive-sum games require exchange. They require voluntary action. Benefits to both sides. Negative-sum games are rare. They’re wars of attrition. Verdun. Or a labor strike. Both sides are losing. Each side hopes it’s losing less than the other. As soon as one side figures it’s losing too much, the negative-sum game is over. Negative-sum games are like heavy elements that live for a short time before decaying into something else.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Positive-sum games are different. They’re cooperative. They continue only as long as both sides are gaining, or expect to. Like any good marriage or alliance or business partnership, benefits to both sides is what keeps it together. When you add up the gains, the result is positive. A positive-sum game.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Power politics are zero-sum games, no matter what politicians want us to believe.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“Fortunately, there’s a shortcut. All our interactions are only three kinds of games: A. Zero-sum B. Positive-sum C. Negative-sum Just three. Zero-sum games dominate the history books. They’re conflicts. They’re when one player can only gain what another player gives up.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“When thinking about what someone else will do, it’s easy to ask the wrong question first. We might ask something like, “What’s the other side trying to achieve?” Or “What’s their endgame?” Good questions for later. Not first. The first question should always be, “What kind of game do they think we’re playing?”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“You’ll notice something interesting about the way scientists think: they don’t start with data. They start with a hypothesis. Then they go to the data. Good thinkers, including intelligence agencies, don’t start with data, either.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking

“A fighter pilot collects data on an enemy pilot by observing. He analyzes by orienting himself to the enemy. He decides what to do, then acts. When Boyd broke thinking into those steps, he discovered something interesting: Whichever pilot goes through the process quickest is the one who usually wins. He called going through the process and repeating it a loop. Boyd’s name for thinking: the OODA Loop. When you get to the end, you start the process again. You gather data on what you just did, analyze that data, and make another decision, followed by another action. Then you do it again. Whoever “loops” most quickly in a dogfight? They usually win. Because of Boyd’s OODA Loop, the U.S. Air Force made a change. They wanted planes to let a pilot go through the OODA Loop as quickly as possible. Planes that moved as quickly as a pilot could think. The process helped the Air Force think more clearly, too. As an organization. Thinking about how a pilot thinks, they made changes. Big changes. They ditched their old way of doing things. Approached the problem differently. Came up with a new plan for more maneuverable, responsive aircraft.”
― John Braddock, A Spy's Guide to Thinking