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Willful Ignorance Quotes
Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty
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Weisberg62 ratings, 4.11 average rating, 12 reviews
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Willful Ignorance Quotes
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“It is not the absolute degree of probability that matters, only its relative probability compared with other possible alternatives.
It is the simple suggestion that the only valid reason for rejecting a statistical hypothesis is that some alternative explains the observed events with a greater degree of probability.”
― Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty
It is the simple suggestion that the only valid reason for rejecting a statistical hypothesis is that some alternative explains the observed events with a greater degree of probability.”
― Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty
“Jersy Neyman conceived the role of statistics as providing direct guidance about an optimal decision.”
― Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty
― Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty
“Each statistical innovation was a byproduct of some attempt to deal with a specific scientific, commercial, or administrative problem. The merger of probability and statistics resulted in the new hybrid field of mathematical statistics around 1930.
By the 1930s, discussion of causation was effectively banned from polite scientific society.
The narrative fallacy refers to the folly of seeking causal explanations for phenomena that are essentially random in nature. However, the converse of the narrative fallacy is what I call the ignorance fallacy. When there are causal factors that could be exploited to great advantage, it is foolish to ignore them. By regarding chance as the most plausible explanation, just because the data appear consistent with randomness, we may remain (willfully) ignorant of potentially important discoveries.”
― Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty
By the 1930s, discussion of causation was effectively banned from polite scientific society.
The narrative fallacy refers to the folly of seeking causal explanations for phenomena that are essentially random in nature. However, the converse of the narrative fallacy is what I call the ignorance fallacy. When there are causal factors that could be exploited to great advantage, it is foolish to ignore them. By regarding chance as the most plausible explanation, just because the data appear consistent with randomness, we may remain (willfully) ignorant of potentially important discoveries.”
― Willful Ignorance: The Mismeasure of Uncertainty
