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Is this a possible COVID endgame?
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I also hope the "probably turns out he hasn't got it. But eoither way, good luck for a quick recovery.
Adrian wrote: "... ultimately the virus would moderate itself until it could co-exist with us.Just maybe, that moderated virus is Omicron ..."
Congrats on the award!
If omicron behaves, it'll find a VIP hospitality with us humans :)
Nik wrote: "Adrian wrote: "... ultimately the virus would moderate itself until it could co-exist with us.Just maybe, that moderated virus is Omicron ..."
Congrats on the award!
If omicron behaves, it'll fi..."
Yes... just ask leprosy.
Best wishes for the kid's speedy recovery, Papaphilly.
Adrian wrote: "Haven't bothered reading the entire thread so maybe someone has already said this...My missus is a doctor (who just won a major award... very proud of her etc etc). She made a call from the very ..."
The tendency towards attenuation is born of the assumption that pathogens with a higher R0 will have an advantage over their competition. One way to increase R0 is to increase the probable length of time which an infection endures. Therefore a less lethal pathogen will make more copies of itself than its more lethal competition. This advantage will allow said pathogen's descendants to become more common in the population.
Assuming this to be an ultimate goal of a pathogen is a logical fallacy. Evolution has no goal. It is only a tendency for mutations that confer competitive advantages to proliferate, while less advantageous or deleterious mutations will die out. Further, viruses do not have motivations; they merely reproduce by consuming infected cells. For an example of a virus for which attenuation was a non-starter consider Small Pox, especially its spread in the Americas.
Congrats on your missus' award, Adrian. Her call is how viruses normally behave, isn't it?
In a sane world there could well be cause for optimism with omniCON, so let's see how sane the world still is judging by its reaction. Not looking too promising in the UK at the moment.
In a sane world there could well be cause for optimism with omniCON, so let's see how sane the world still is judging by its reaction. Not looking too promising in the UK at the moment.
J. wrote: "Adrian wrote: "Haven't bothered reading the entire thread so maybe someone has already said this...My missus is a doctor (who just won a major award... very proud of her etc etc). She made a call..."
Another reason there is a logical fallacy is that most viruses do their shedding, and hence their reproducing, before any major symptoms occur. This is an evolutionary advantage because the reproducing and spreading occurs before the potential recipients see the problem and avoid the infected ones. The reproducing is over before the victim's overall condition becomes apparent.
The reason why the common cold is a mild infection is not because the virus is "mild" but because we are continually exposed to it and our immune systems are kept up to scratch at dealing with it. This is also why it is called a "cold". You are more likely to succumb to it if you put your body under significant stress, such as being inadequately dressed for a cold snap in the weather, but of course that is not a cause but merely a stress that make sit easier for a virus to take hold.
The impact of immunity, partial or otherwise, on a pathogens lethality within a population can be readily seen in the Columbian Exchange. Diseases like Measles were endemic threats within Eurasian societies, but thousands of years of exposure had lessened their lethality.The Columbian Exchange introduced Measles and other pathogens to societies which had never encountered them. It is estimated that in the one hundred to one hundred and fifty years that followed Columbus as much as 85-95% of the Native American population was killed by disease. Forty years after Columbus landed on Hispaniola, the native Taino people were extinct. When the pilgrims landed on Plymouth Rock in 1620 they survived by occupying a native village that had been wiped out by a Measles outbreak shortly before they arrived.
The pathogens that the Europeans brought had never "attenuated". Eurasians just had a longer history of exposure to them.
Papa, let us know how the little guy is doing.
My missus is a doctor (who just won a major award... very proud of her etc etc). She made a call from the very beginning of Covid that a virus has no future if it kills its host so ultimately the virus would moderate itself until it could co-exist with us.
Just maybe, that moderated virus is Omicron. When you see the low hospitalisation rate and non-existent death rate - even in South Africa where so many are unvaccinated - it does give a little bit of hope that Covid has found its sweet spot for human tolerance.
All the testing/figures are not yet out but there is reason for optimism.