2020 Booker Prize Speculation

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Great.

[Paul]

Yes that Facebook event seems to have been changed - previously it was the announcement at 1030-11 and now the event is a watch party to discuss the midnight list.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

And the guardian have just confirmed they will publish their article on the longlist at 3pm on Monday.

[Paul]

The most amusing thing about the Guardian episode was how a lot of people assumed it couldn't possibly be the right list due to some of the choices (as if they'd include a whodunnit and a graphic novel!) Only 5 of the 13 books had been mentioned at all in 350 posts of speculation (Meike won the prize for at least picking all of those 5)

Talking of which - some more predictions from people to see who wins the coveted "most books predicted" prize? (GY will likely win the "most books already read" one).....

[Paul]

I usually look at the "Authors Mentioned in this topic" to see what is predicted - but apparently we're expecting Lee Child to pick his own novel to vie for the prize with Peter Handke and (the deceased) Thomas Bernhard and Vasily Grossman.

[Robert]

Paul wrote: "The most amusing thing about the Guardian episode was how a lot of people assumed it couldn't possibly be the right list due to some of the choices (as if they'd include a whodunnit and a graphic n..."

He may beat his 2017 streak (10 books read? - If I'm correct)

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

I read 10 last year also (only 11 had been published at the time of the list).

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

If there was a lesson from 2018 it was to look carefully at the judges - we all I think underestimated that Leanne Shapton and Val McDermid would want to champion books from their own genre.

Last year we kind of learnt the lesson - and so well before the longlist had collectively called as strog candidates the two winners (and one of the other shortlisted books) from the Afua Hirsch and Liz Calder links (with Peter Florence also supporting the likely inclusion of the Atwood).

So what can we guess this year:

Margaret Busby- hard to believe she won't champion BAME publishers. I can see her supporting Merky Books, Peepal and Dialogue books - hence why I think That Reminds Me, The Mermaid of Black Conch, Vanishing Half, Rainbow Milk are even stronger contenders than they already are.

Lemn Sissay _ (the excellent) That Reminds Me seems to have strong links with his own autobiographical "My Name is Why" (a little like "BRITish" and "GWO" last year). I also think he may champion "The Shadow King"

Emily Wilson - are any Greek/Homeric retellings (such as have dominated Women's Prize shortlists the last two years) eligible?

Sameer Rahim - I have the least clue here. I used to subscribe to Prospect and have bought it on and off frequently - but have never felt the books coverage (which he edits) was that great - most daily papers (and definitely the weeklies like New Statesman/The Spectator) cover more each week than it does each month. His own novel has very limited reviews on Goodreads. This month Prospect reviewed Summer and Summerwater I think (both favourably) - they also had their well known annual Top 50 Thinkers issue this month - I could only see three authors there and only one eligible (Mantel) - the others Rooney and Olga T. But the arts pages gave one of the worst mainstream reviews to The Mirror and The Light.

And of course the wild card - Lee Child (the wild child). Will he want to champion a felloe genre writer - I suggested Joseph Kanon's "The Accomplice" a long time back as he picked as his best fiction book of 2019. Will he champion literary authors who can also sell well (his main criticism of literary fiction is its lack of commerciality) - say Mantel?

Any thoughts?

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None of this is to say that the books did not/do not deserve to be included on their own merit (*) - its just that book judging is very subjective and each panel (like all of us as readers) bring their own biases/preferences.



(*) exception for The Testaments

[Paul]

My own list would be:

1. Only a Lodger . . . And Hardly That: A Fictional Autobiography
2. After Absalon
3. That Reminds Me
4. Apeirogon
5. The Liar's Dictionary
6. The River Capturee
7 .The Mermaid of Black Conch: A Love Story
8. The Sunken Land Begins to Rise Again
9. How Pale the Winter Has Made Us
10. Strange Hotel
11. Exquisite Cadavers
12. Saving Lucia
13. Pew

But that's based on books I've read only.

List is in rough order - I'd be surprised and disappointed if #3 and #4 don't make it. I'd be very very surprised if #2 does (but it would certainly be my pick if they want the third of a trilogy!)

Only a Lodger ... and Hardly That would be a very worthy winner but has had hardly any press coverage and only a handful of reviews even on Goodreads, so I fear we won't see it.

[Paul]

Gumble's Yard wrote: "If there was a lesson from 2018 it was to look carefully at the judges."

Yes - and your analysis seems spot on - can't think of anything to add although on Child and Mantel it could (I hope) go the other way i.e. pick a genre/commercial-and-proud of it author rather than one who aims to write literary fiction.

[Sam]

I would add to GY's and Paul's considerations, the possible effects of Covid-19 on the judges' psyches or any other aspect of the prize.
A remark GY made earlier about things being a lot different since March ( in reference to Apeirogon) rang true for me. I am sure it also affected the judges, and what about financial considerations For publishers? I wonder if the smaller publishers can afford a nomination. Would it impact what books are chosen?

[Paul]

Good point re small publishers - most are struggling in the current environment and Galley Beggar didn’t seem too positive about their Booker experience.

[Tracy]

This year has had some really good reads, and it wasn’t easy to choose just thirteen.
Since Lee Child is a judge, I’m going to assume a mystery/thriller of some sort will be chosen, but I have no idea otherwise. So here goes, not in any special order:

The Mirror and The Light- Hilary Mantel
Apeirogon- Colum McCann
Utopia Avenue- David Mitchell
Liar’s Dictionary- Eley Williams
That Reminds Me- Derek Owusu
Swimming in the Dark- Tomasz Jedrowski
Shuggie Bain- Douglas Stewart
The Vanishing Half- Brit Bennett
Jack- Marilynne Robinson
The Girl With the Louding Voice- Abi Dare
We Ride Upon Sticks- Quan Barry
Bestiary- K-Ming Chan
Rainbow Milk- Paul Mendez.

Swimming in the Dark had some moments that took my breath away, Liar’s Dictionary was just so good, and We Ride Upon Sticks was a really fun read, so I hope these three make the longlist for the exposure.

[Nicholas]

Paul wrote: "Gumble's Yard wrote: "If there was a lesson from 2018 it was to look carefully at the judges."

Yes - and your analysis seems spot on - can't think of anything to add although on Child and Mantel i..."

I have a procedural question... Were Sabrina and Snap submitted by their publishers or do the judges have some power to call in other books? I ask because even with Lee Child on the panel, I can't imagine publishers using up a bunch of their slots on more commercial fare given how crucial prizes like the Booker would seem to be (maybe I'm naive!) in boosting literary fiction sales. It would also create a weird situation where a judge might be trying to reward a particular genre but only have a very limited universe of books in that genre to choose from.

I'm working on my own speculation list (first time!) but want to finish a couple of eligible titles first, so it will probably be very last minute. Very glad to have found this thread as an outlet for my fixation, which is much more intense this year – thanks quarantine!

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

There are two types of call in.

Each imprint as well as it’s quota of official entries (1-4 depending on number of recent longlistings - you would need 1-2 to get two entries, 3-4 to get 3 entries and 5 to get the maximum 4 entries) can submit a list of up to 5 other eligible books, a leach book with an up to 250 word note explaining why they think the judges should consider it. The judges then can call in between 8-12 of these across all imprints.

In addition the judges can chose to call in anything they want (even if not submitted) as long as it’s eligible and the publishers agree to accept the rules of the prize (entry fees, publicity etc).

The other crucial point though is the word imprint. A publisher like say Penguin Random House has a whole host of imprints - 275. Now of course most of these do not produce adult novels but many do - they even have a large number producing literary fiction. Each is treated as a separate publisher for the Booker. And due to the entry rules above success breeds success - the better you do the more entries you get next year, which increases your chance of longlisting which increases your entries etc.

It’s no surprise then that PRH have in the last couple of years published around half the longlisted titles.

Also If publishers have genre fiction published by a different imprint they could submit a book from it and 5 call in titles without affecting their entry chances.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Tracy - this is where the whole imprint/publisher thing gets tricky but I am unsure if either Bestiary or We Ride Upon Sticks are eligible as unsure if either has been published in the U.K. and Ireland.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

I just wanted to check this a little.

Penguin Random House had 6 of the shortlist in 2019 and 7 in 2018 (so half the list over both years, and an average of 5 books the last 5 years). They have had books longlisted from 8 different imprints:

Jonathan Cape
Hamish Hamilton - their main two literary imprints
Chatto and Windus (The Testaments)
Viking
Bantam Press (Snap - so their crime imprint I guess)
William Heinemann
Doubleday Ireland (they are the only publisher to date to benefit from the Tramp Press requested rule change to Irish publishers)
Harvill Secker

Across those imprints they are allowed to submit 22 official entries for 2020 and 40 call-in books.

Hachette have had 8 longlistings over the last 5 years but from 8 different imprints (Little Brown - who I think will do very well this year, Tinder Press, Weidenfeld and Nicholson, Fleet, JM Originals, Virago, Maclehose Press, Spectre).

[John]

Very much looking forward to the longlist announcement so can read more fine novels and hopefully be surprised by a few of them. Picked up Apeirogon by Colum McCann and hope to get to it soon. Want to get Mendez's Rainbow Milk and The Mermaid of Black Conch: A Love story soon as well, anticipating they will be listed.

[Tracy]

Gumble's Yard wrote: "Tracy - this is where the whole imprint/publisher thing gets tricky but I am unsure if either Bestiary or We Ride Upon Sticks are eligible as unsure if either has been published in the U.K. and Ire..."

Oh. They are on the eligible list set up in December. I know Bestiary will be available in the US in September, since I got an ARC.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

The eligibility list has a few errors due to changes in publication date plus it’s open source so anyone can add books. I know The Bestiary was on NetGalley.com not NetGalley.co.uk which kind of implies a US publication. Not sure through.

Anto who is bc a moderator on this board and a Goodreads librarian I believe, is very good at working out these things.

[Ang]

Just a note to say that members can create author threads at any time - you don't have to request a moderator to do it. Just check that there isn't one already - there are two posts which list the index, not just the top post - this has caught me out before. Also please check that you create the thread in the standard format which is explained in the Author Chat information post.

I did not think that the Utopia discussion was getting out of bounds for Booker speculation, but if the desire was to create rankings of his books and link to goodreads reviews of previously read (and even unread!) books, then yes, the author thread was certainly necessary.

[Ang]

According to amazon (which isn't as reliable as it used to be for this kind of checking), Bestiary will be published in the UK in February 2021.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Thanks Ang. Could you see anything for We Ride Upon Sticks.

[Ang]

Gumble's Yard wrote: "Thanks Ang. Could you see anything for We Ride Upon Sticks."

I think perhaps that one does not have a UK publication date yet. Amazon and Blackwells are selling the US version. No sign on Waterstones.

[Ang]

Tracy wrote: "...We Ride Upon Sticks was a really fun read..."

Just read the blurb because of checking the UK publication. It sounds great fun and I would read it. I wonder if it's in with a chance for the Pulitzer - they seem to be on board with humour for some of their winners and runners up.

[Tracy]

Well, phooey. Gonna have to reassess. It shouldn’t be too hard- I had a list of about 20 to whittle down.
Thanks for taking the time to look it up!

[Tracy]

Take two:
The Mirror and The Light- Hilary Mantel
Apeirogon- Colum McCann
Utopia Avenue- David Mitchell
Liar’s Dictionary- Eley Williams
That Reminds Me- Derek Owusu
Swimming in the Dark- Tomasz Jedrowski
Shuggie Bain- Douglas Stewart
The Vanishing Half- Brit Bennett
Jack- Marilynne Robinson
The Girl With the Louding Voice- Abi Dare
Rainbow Milk- Paul Mendez.
Hamnet- Maggie OFarrell
Pew- Catherine Lacey

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

All strong contenders (although I have not read Swimming in the Dark) and all definitely eligible.

[David]

Tracy, I really like your list. My own list (more of a wish list than a prediction):

Summer, Ali Smith
A Thousand Moons, Sebastian Barry
The Shadow King, Maaza Mengiste
Apeirogon, Colum McCann
A Lover's Discourse, Xiaolu Guo
Summerwater, Sarah Moss
That Reminds Me, Derek Owusu
Hamnet, Maggie O'Farrell
The Bass Rock, Evie Wyld
Shuggie Bain, Douglas Stuart
The Rain Heron, Robbie Arnott
You People, Nikita Lalani
The Mermaid of Black Conch, Monique Roffey

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Wish list as you have read and liked them David or because you want to read them.

[David]

I have read and liked A Thousand Moons, Apeirogon and That Reminds Me, the other ten novels I'd really like to read. I've got copies of Hamnet and The Shadow King at home but haven't read them yet (I'm reading The Eighth Life at the moment which has 1280 pages in the original German version...).

[Nicholas]

Gumble's Yard wrote: "There are two types of call in.

Each imprint as well as it’s quota of official entries (1-4 depending on number of recent longlistings - you would need 1-2 to get two entries, 3-4 to get 3 entrie..."

This is very illuminating, thanks! What I take away from it is that if Lee Child or another judge were set on featuring a certain genre they definitely could. Also that it's all just a little too complex for me to game out and I'm going to stick to picking eligible books I either liked or would like to read, with a few wild cards thrown in for the thrill of the bet.

Of the eligible books I've read so far, my favorite is How Much of These Hills Is Gold – an ambitious debut that subverts tropes of the American West at every turn. I've thought about it pretty much every day since finishing a few weeks back. Days Without End came up repeatedly when we discussed it in my book club and I, for one, liked it more than that book's follow up

[Hugh, Active moderator]

I haven't read as many candidates as some of you, so I have included three that I haven't read yet but have high expectations for:

The Mirror & the Light
Apeirogon
The Liar's Dictionary
Summer
Saving Lucia
Hamnet
Djinn Patrol on the Purple Line
The Vanishing Half
The Bass Rock
A Thousand Moons
Actress
Weather
Utopia Avenue

[Neil]

I don’t really have anything to add to the lists everyone is posting except that I am a long-standing fan of Emily St John Mandel and would love to see The Glass Hotel longlisted.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Fingers crossed Neil.

I see A Thousand Moons mentioned a few times - I enjoyed it but I would say that lots of fans of Days Without End (eg Meike who used to be in this group and I recall being vocal that DWE should have won the Booker) were underwhelmed.

I agree re How Much of These Hills ... I was very surprised it was not Women’s Prize longlisted but I believe I misunderstood the U.K. publishing date. It seems very likely to feature there next year.

We know (see post 382) it’s been submitted and one judge liked it.

[WndyJW]

I was underwhelmed with Days Without End and I really wanted to like it. I liked the characters and the story idea, I just felt the book dragged, it could have been me, maybe if I read it now I’d like it.

Summer won’t be nominated will it? Ali Smith is done with Bookers I thought.

[Nadine in California]

WndyJW wrote: "I was underwhelmed with Days Without End and I really wanted to like it. I liked the characters and the story idea, I just felt the book dragged, it could have been me, maybe if I read it now I’d l..."

I listened to the audio and loved it - I think the lovely Irish brogue might have made the difference. I read it with a book group, and everyone else read the print and disliked or DNF'ed it for being too blood and battle heavy, while I barely noticed, the characters and the writing far outweighed it in my mind.

[Dylan]

I really struggled while reading Days Without End on my first attempts - and switching to audio really helped me push through because I was able to get into the rhythm of the language. After listening to it I went back and immediately read it with that rhythm in mind.

I reread it in January just before I got an ARC of A Thousand Moons and I enjoyed both of them (although Days Without End somewhat more so). I don't know if it should have been the winner (Lincoln in the Bardo was excellent) but it's a crime that it wasn't shortlisted.

I would love to see The Glass Hotel featured on the list!

[John]

Neil wrote: "I don’t really have anything to add to the lists everyone is posting except that I am a long-standing fan of Emily St John Mandel and would love to see The Glass Hotel longlisted."

Mandel's Glass Hotel is sitting on my daughter's bookshelf (14 years) and she loved it so definitely planning to read soon. Too many books to get to.

[Ang]

Wendy, I asked Ali Smith whether it's true that she doesn't allow her books to be submitted for prizes and she said that it is not true. She did expand about the time it takes to attend festivals, readings, etc and how it can be difficult to have enough time for writing between them all. This was at an event with Max Porter last year - possibly Cheltenham Lit Fest.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Very useful Ang.

The comment to Jonathan (of this group) and to some other Book bloggers I believe, was back in 2017 when Autumn was shortlisted (her fourth shortlisting) - and at the shortlist readings (which is at the peak of an intense period of readings/festivals etc).

I have always assumed it was part trepidation knowing how intense the seasonal quartet writing would be

Now the quartet is done it would be great to see Summer submitted and longlisted this year - she is well overdue a Booker win.

[Ang]

Hers have never been my top favourite on the lists. I love to listen to her at festivals though - she is one of the best at that.

[Ang]

Assuming the shortlist readings you are referring to were Southbank, she was at Cheltenham the day before where only two other authors attended who were much less experienced. She was entirely gracious but it did appear she needed to look after them. I think she was probably a bit annoyed that the other three didn't bother with Cheltenham and her comment at Southbank may have been about the requirement to promote when some people aren't held to it.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

She feels like she is almost due a Most Smashing of Smith Booker (like the Best of Beryl) - I think she only one short of BB’s “bridesmaid but not the bride” record of 5 short listings without a win.

One thing that is clear from the shortlist readings (and other events I have seen) is how popular she is with the literary reading public in the U.K.

[Hugh, Active moderator]

Ang wrote: "Assuming the shortlist readings you are referring to were Southbank, she was at Cheltenham the day before where only two other authors attended who were much less experienced. She was entirely grac..."
The Nottingham event that also happened that year was very similar - I was impressed with the way she looked after the other two, but the difference in the signing queues was stark - Ali Smith's must have been over half of the audience.

[Sam]

I haven't hidden my prejudice for Ali Smith this year based on the three earler segments of the Seasonal Quartet. Personally, I don't think there is another contemporary writer as tuned into the "voice," of the time. I think there is a tendency to diminish her work based on her political slant or the mistaken simplicity that is seen in her minimalism, and her popularity might be associated with commonality by some, but I think she is the right author for the right time in a year of qualified contenders. Given personal appearance demands will be limited, (I imagine) I hope she is open to the prize.

[Paul]

Gordon Burn Prize shortlist is out - see thread https://www.goodreads.com/topic/show/... - a prize closer to the Goldsmiths perhaps than Booker

But mentioning here as Rainbow Milk is on the list which also feels a strong Booker contender - indeed I think it is the only pure novel (several of the others are hybrid types that wouldn't be eligible for this or Goldsmiths)

And another on the list is written by one of the 2020 Booker judges - My Name is Why

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

With Ali Smith (who I would love to see win the prize) one wonders if it really works as a stand alone novel - far more than the first three it’s clearly a sequel and draws the quartet together. But then two other strong contenders - TMATL and (one we have not discussed much) Jack, have the same issues.

[Paul]

Gumble's Yard wrote: "far more than the first three it’s clearly a sequel and draws the quartet together. But then two other strong contenders - TMATL and (one we have not discussed much) Jack, have the same issues"

As does one of my top picks for winner and this year's best trilogy-finisher, After Absalon.

Jack feels more stand-alone actually - rather more like say Jame Gardam's Filth trilogy, in that one is revisiting old characters but not relying on the other books.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Gumble's Yard wrote: "Penguin Random House had 6 of the shortlist in 2019 and 7 in 2018 (so half the list over both years, and an average of 5 books the last 5 years). They have ha..."

I did a little more work on this.

Over the last 5 years the 65 longlisted books have been;

Major conglomerates:

26 Penguin Random House
8 Hachette
3 Pan Macmillian
2 Harper Collins
2 Bloomsbury
2 Simon and Schuster

then

18 from firms in the Faber administered Independent Alliance (Faber & Faber- 9, Canongate - 2, Granta - 2, Oneworld - 2, Atlantic - 1, Pushkin - 1, Serpent's Tail - 1)

4 from smaller indies - Galley Beggar (1), Salt (1) , Garnet (1), Contraband (1).