2020 Booker Prize Speculation

[Paul]

The independent alliance is interesting - tend to be the ones a size level above the RoC types (I assume there is some sort of entry fee/size), and it clearly works- Europa Editions (Ferrante etc) who do well in MBI also part of it. Sales wise I think they break into the big 5.

[Ella]

Is that high number of Penguin/RH just because they've eaten so much of the book world? Or is it because they win then can submit more, etc? That seems like such a big divide, and I dunno - somehow slightly unseemly to me. But then Penguin has been around forever, and they pick up good writers, etc etc. Who knows. I do know this: it's interesting to me to see those numbers, even if I'm not sure what they mean.

[Paul]

Bit of both I think - but their market share isn't far off that sort of level so while I tend to moan every year about the PRH dominance it isn't really massively out of line.

Although it does seem a Booker thing particularly - e.g. this year's Women's Prize (GY fancy doing some backtesting on that Prize?) was:

Hachette 6
PRH 3
Harper Collins 2
Macmillan 1
Bloomsbury 1
Faber Alliance 3 (Oneworld, Faber & Faber and Granta)
Others 0

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Paul wrote: "GY fancy doing some backtesting on that Prize."

No. It feels more relevant for the Booker as it is so intrinsic to the entry rules - as I point out above PRH can (and I am sure do) enter 22 books this year - someone like Oneworld (who have won the prize 2 of the last 5 years) just 2 books. So intrinsic in fact that the publishers of each of the last 5 years books are listed in the rules.

The women’s prize rules are basically 2 books per “bona fide imprint” (1 if you only publish 5 books or less) plus unlimited entries from any authors ever shortlisted in the history of the prize.

[Val]

Hachette have had an imprint dedicated to female literary authors since they bought Virago, which may be one factor in their success.

[Paul]

One I'd forgotten was eligible - as it was a long while trying to find a UK publisher but it eventually did - is Bina: A Novel in Warnings. Perhaps 2020 isn't the year for rather offbeat humour but it would be a very worthy longlistee.

[Paul]

Val wrote: "Hachette have had an imprint dedicated to female literary authors since they bought Virago, which may be one factor in their success."

Good point! - Jack is on the Virago list in the UK.

[Paul]

Gumble's Yard wrote: ".... Doubleday Ireland (they are the only publisher to date to benefit from the Tramp Press requested rule change to Irish publishers)"

Actually that wasn't I think a result of the Tramp Press rule, as Doubleday Ireland also had a book on the 2013 list, Donal Ryan's The Spinning Heart (see the 2018 rules if you want to backdate your analysis a couple of years: https://thebookerprizes.com/sites/man...)

[Jo]

I can't wait for Monday at midnight! This year I am trying to get a hold of every longlist book in signed 1st/1st edition. Does any one else share my excitement over a signed 1st?

[Jo]

Does anyone know on which platform the announcement will take place? The Booker website?

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Twitter and the Booker website normally update around the same time

[Ang]

Jo wrote: "I can't wait for Monday at midnight! This year I am trying to get a hold of every longlist book in signed 1st/1st edition. Does any one else share my excitement over a signed 1st?"

Yes, definitely, I share the excitement though I probably will not buy all of the longlist. I always buy the winner but sometimes that is too late to get a 1st/1st. I buy more of the longlist than I should, put it that way! Last year it was difficult to get 1st/1st of some of the books at longlist or shortlist stage. I did find them at exhorbitant prices that I would not pay.

Edit to add: those were not signed so it was odd to see a standard book store selling currently published hardbacks at prices higher than the RRP. This was not a used book store.

[Ang]

Oh, and welcome to the forum, Jo!

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Jo wrote: "I can't wait for Monday at midnight! This year I am trying to get a hold of every longlist book in signed 1st/1st edition. Does any one else share my excitement over a signed 1st?"

Welcome also.

I am afraid I am terrible at appreciating/identifying 1st/1st editions - I have a feeling I have given lots to charity shops over the years when the paperback copy comes out (simply due to space considerations).

I normally enjoy getting the shortlist signed/dedicated and chatting to the authors while they do it but I assume that won't happen this year - so I may get more of the books in Kindle versions.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

David wrote: "Tracy, I really like your list. My own list (more of a wish list than a prediction):



Thanks for this lists - it drew me to read "A Lover's Discourse" yesterday which I enjoyed.

I had not initially made the connection that ALD was by last year's judge. If this was the Goldsmith I would say that meant it had a great chance of being listed (the overlap between past judges and shortlisted books, and new judges and past shortlisted books is huge there) - but this seems a very un-Booker thing to do. I am sure there are plenty of counter-examples but I can't think of many judges longlisted in the next few years (not least of course as few of the judges are fiction authors).

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Paul wrote: "Jack feels more stand-alone actually -.... in that one is revisiting old characters but not relying on the other books..."

I can see what you are saying - as the Goodreads blurb makes it clear its a prequel rather than a sequel - a retelling of a relationship (Jack and Della) that's crucial to both "Gilead" and "Home". For anyone interested I have just posted a review of "Jack" (I won't say anymore here unless its longlisted).

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Interesting that the Guardian (in that article we discused at length on the forum) had "Gilead" as the 2nd best book of the 21st Century behind "Wolf Hall" and with "Autumn" 8th and "Cloud Atlas" 9th - so we could have characters from all 4 on the longlist.

Ta-Nehisi Coates (for non-fiction) made the top 10 also. We have not discussed "The Water Dancer" much and it seems to have had mixed reviews but I can see the book as appealing to the judges and the author as adding some US-star power to the list.

[Sam]

We coukd also see Oprah's pick. Deacon King Kong I am hoping the list stays more Brit and Commonwealth this year since there are an adequate number og good eligibles available.

[Emmeline]

I feel like I've read some pretty mixed reviews of Rainbow Milk. Has anyone read it?

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Yes

https://www.goodreads.com/review/show...

[Tracy]

Gumble's Yard wrote: "Paul wrote: "Jack feels more stand-alone actually -.... in that one is revisiting old characters but not relying on the other books..."

I can see what you are saying - as the Goodreads blurb makes..."

I finished Jack last night, so my review is swirling around in my brain right now.

I will say that Marilynne Robinson's writing is stunning.

[Paul]

Is it - and I see GY has also just reviewed - more stand-alone than say Mantel/Smith's books?

[Tracy]

It can be read as a standalone, and still be appreciated. But it is enhanced by reading it with the series.

I would say more standalone than Mantel, but about even up with Smith.

[Ella]

I've not yet read Jack, but I've always felt that this "series" which isn't really a series is a bunch of stand-alone books that grow more rich if you've read the others. I really do think you could go into any of them *not including Jack b/c I've not gotten my copy yet* without having read the others and still appreciate them.

But once you've read them all, the appreciation is pretty overwhelming, and I've been wanting the story from Jack's perspective since at least the second book, so I'm very excited to read it, and will do ASAP.

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

I think that’s right. When this is out in paperback I will read all 4 back to back.

[Jo]

Thank you for the welcome. As an A-level English Lit teacher I usually get to spend a substantial period of time at work talking about books, book awards and predictions. I have really missed that. I have loved reading through the comments, opinions and predictions of the members on here. My predictions are as follows, however I hope there are some surprises as it's always a good way to discover something new:
1. Hamnet
2. The Mirror and the Light
3. Apeirogon
4. The Girl with the Louding Voice
5. The Water Dancer
6. Deacon King Kong
7. A Thousand Moons
8. Shuggie Bain
9. Utopia Avenue
10. That Reminds Me
11. The Vanishing Half
12. The Liar's Dictionary
13. Weather

Will be staying up till midnight. I hope others on here will be awake.

[Navi]

I would really like to prioritize reading the long list this year! What time will it be announced? Is it midnight UK time? I can't seem to find it anywhere

Edit: I just saw the announcement date on the website - July 28. For some reason, I thought it was today! Getting too excited ;)

[Jo]

Midnight between Tuesday and Monday. On the Booker website and Twitter simultaneously. Also so excited! It's the only time I have wanted the weekend to fly by.

[Laff]

Hi Jo

I share your enthusiasm for signed firsts and I have been collecting Booker firsts for nearly 40 years now. I like your predictions, but agree that it is good to discover something new.

[Jo]

Hi Laff, I have been a book lover all my life. My bookcase and its contents are by far my favourite worldly goods. I have only been collecting signed firsts for about a year. I would love to see your collection.

[Ella]

Is the company still around that offers the Booker hardback 1st editions? Someone who has a memory better than mine might have a clue what I'm talking about...

[Ang]

Jo wrote: "Will be staying up till midnight. I hope others on here will be awake."

Definitely, plus we have many non-UK members who will be able to experience it at a better time of their day. Why midnight has been chosen, I don't know!

[Ang]

Ella wrote: "Is the company still around that offers the Booker hardback 1st editions? Someone who has a memory better than mine might have a clue what I'm talking about..."

You might mean The Book People who traditionally offered the shortlist at a good rate. They weren't always first editions and in fact were likely not. They are not currently trading and went into administration last year.

[Neil]

I imagine the announcement time is set to be convenient for people in the US.

I am fascinated by the discussion about 1st/1st. It's a whole new thing for me because I come at books from an entirely different angle. All I am interested in is the content which means I don't mind whether I read it in a hardback, a paperback, a Kindle book or a PDF on my iPad. I can understand the appeal of first editions, but I don't think I could ever see myself getting into them.

[Jo]

Hi Neil, I agree the content is absolutely what matters - that's why I joined this forum. I love passing books on to friends and seeing them discover a good book, not worrying if they remember to return ot or not. However, in the last year when I read a book I particularly value there is something special about having a first printing that the author has actually held in their hands. Needless to say, I need another bookcase!

[Ang]

Neil wrote: "I imagine the announcement time is set to be convenient for people in the US."

But it's a UK prize...

[Neil]

It used to be

[Ang]

Neil wrote: "It used to be"

It's still a UK prize - it was never only UK authors - it's books published in the UK.

[Ella]

I have a feeling the midnight time might be b/c it's a PERFECT time for UK & many European newspapers to have the morning edition full of articles - whereas it's bad for the US/Australian/NZ papers. (I don't think they're doing it to be bad to the rest of us, but it is a good time for the UK papers - who do a lot of articles, whereas the NYTimes might cover it, but not a lot more over here.)

[Paul]

Will be the first time for some years I haven't been in Korea and woken up to the Booker news rather than stayed up for it

[Gumble's Yard - Golden Reviewer]

Same with me and Singapore.

I think something like 10pm would work better for U.K. papers - they publish their tomorrow/next day editions around them.

[Robert]

I preferred it when the announcement was in the afternoon

[Chris]

Neil wrote: "I imagine the announcement time is set to be convenient for people in the US."

It's wonderfully convenient for me (6pm on the 27th), but I doubt they're catering to me and the other 96 people in the US who love and follow the Prize. The Awards ceremony, right in the middle of the work day, is certainly not as convenient.

[Val]

Some years there are two of us in Hampshire racing to place library reservations just after midnight and other years I fall asleep on the sofa cuddling the dog and leaving the lights on all night.

[Irene]

The excitement in this topic is contagious, but since for me it will be 1 am on a work day, i will probably fall asleep before the announcement.

[Laff]

Neill wrote 'I am fascinated by the discussion about 1st/1st. It's a whole new thing for me because I come at books from an entirely different angle.'

I am not sure how collecting books is a comment on how one reads them. I have no professional interest, I simply read for pleasure and believe that everyone comes at books from a unique angle.

[Nicholas]

Announcing at midnight does seem like a very odd choice for a book prize, but it's perfect for me (Monday 7pm EDT). My group just made a plan to do a Zoom happy hour to share our reactions. We're also going to work together to place library holds and order copies from Alibris / Book Depository of the books that are not yet out in the U.S.

[Neil]

Laff wrote: "Neill wrote 'I am fascinated by the discussion about 1st/1st. It's a whole new thing for me because I come at books from an entirely different angle.'

I am not sure how collecting books is a comm..."

I may have misphrased things. I wasn't commenting on other people's book habits, only on my complete ignorance of the world of first editions.

[Sam]

I dare say the Booker has drawn some interest. I just picked up the tablet and see 19 posts on the topic a on Friday night UK time and that is usually a quiet period.

[John]

I'm so very much looking forward to this. Mostly for the wonderful discussion here. I plan to read them all and either obtain through the library or just buy em! Thinking about hunting down a few signed 1st eds of my favs.