World, Writing, Wealth discussion
Wealth & Economics
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If there were just enough food for the entire humanity..
Graeme wrote: "There is a long term decline in undernourishment.REF: https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and...
The key issue is poverty - not resources."
Actually i would say politics, but poverty by another name....
Papaphilly wrote: "Graeme wrote: "There is a long term decline in undernourishment.REF: https://ourworldindata.org/hunger-and...
The key issue is poverty - not r..."
Hence my comment
The presumption is that world's distribution of food will improve - evidence why it will?
Graeme makes a strong and consistent point on fertility impact and the fact that the world can produce enough food. My point is that the issue is not just food but the other aspects of human life in terms of resource consumption.
Then there is the political element about food distribution which is frequently used as a controlling element in conflicts and limits military as much as fuel distribution.
Hi Philip,Excellent points about distribution. We live in a steep hierarchy between the haves and the have-nots. Poverty, and tyranny often (but not always - ref China) go hand in hand.
For me, poverty is a key issue to address, not just in the developing world - but everywhere.
How to address it? That seems to be a key question.
Graeme wrote: "Hi Philip,Excellent points about distribution. We live in a steep hierarchy between the haves and the have-nots. Poverty, and tyranny often (but not always - ref China) go hand in hand.
For me, ..."
The problem then as poverty is alleviated that consumption of other resources increases e.g. type of food (see meat eating in China and India) consumer goods (fast fashion, mobile phones, cars)
The developed world is full of haves compared to the under-developed world of have nots. The have nots want (advertising, better life, actual need) what we have. Any levelling up however worthy in political and moral outcome will result in even more carbon emissions and pollution just in landfill
Carbon scrubbers may be a way out (powered by nuclear) but I can't see a way out on clothes - look at excess use of water in production and affect on rivers from run off pollution.
Re fertility decline - don't remember whether supporting researches were posted above. Would appreciate.Of course, there are problems, but there are also solutions - from adoption to surrogate mothers that help combat that. A lot of restraint may be self-imposed with accessible contraception solutions.
Africa booms. Many religious dudes, mandated by a postulate of "be fruitful and multiply", have 10+ kids. Europe & North America constitute only about 17.5% of global population and shrinking..
Yes, poverty and starvation are huge problems, which seem distant to those who can help.
In the given conditions, staying well armed may well be required :)
Oh, my, Nik. I see you support the Second Amendment :-) We need to have the freedom to remain well armed just in case things go sideways.
Scout wrote: "Oh, my, Nik. I see you support the Second Amendment :-) We need to have the freedom to remain well armed just in case things go sideways."The US has been well-armed for a long time - see how that has worked out.
Philip wrote: "Scout wrote: "Oh, my, Nik. I see you support the Second Amendment :-) We need to have the freedom to remain well armed just in case things go sideways."The US has been well-armed for a long time ..."
Ok,
When was the last time the United States was invaded? 1812. Need I say more?
Papaphilly wrote: "Philip wrote: "Scout wrote: "Oh, my, Nik. I see you support the Second Amendment :-) We need to have the freedom to remain well armed just in case things go sideways."The US has been well-armed f..."
Correct although 1941 was a sharp reminder. I meant in terms of influencing foreign countries. US Invasions (Grenada an exception) (Panama was removing a problem of the CIA's making - a few more I could add there) invasions and foreign excursions since WWII have not ended well. Recent events just highlight that failure. It's not just the USA's failure despite main military might. UK has been complicit in many.
Philip wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Philip wrote: "Scout wrote: "Oh, my, Nik. I see you support the Second Amendment :-) We need to have the freedom to remain well armed just in case things go sideways."The US ha..."
Many have been complicit and others pay the price. That is the nature of the world. yet all being equal, I would rather be our side than any other side, mistakes and all.
Papaphilly wrote: "Philip wrote: "Scout wrote: "Oh, my, Nik. I see you support the Second Amendment :-) We need to have the freedom to remain well armed just in case things go sideways."The US has been well-armed f..."
I don't disagree. I do take issue with the number of mass shootings and homicides that have occurred in the past 20 years. While it may be attributed to mental health issues (which our healthcare system and access to same is abysmal) it does raise the question in my mind that it's time to exert some type of control over gun ownership.
Locally, I know I could get a gun legally in an hour without ever having to pass a background check because of the private sales laws and gun shows that allow for this. I do think we need to fix or tighten some of the law regarding purchase and ownership of guns. Being in America, especially Arizona, as soon as you raise any suggestion of doing so, you are immediately shouted down with the discussion never taking place.
Our society has changed, and I think it's time for that discussion.
Lizzie,Have you bought a firearm?
All FFLs are required by law to submit an ATF FORM 4473 which includes the buyer's ID, address, and affidavit of legality. Thanks to modern technology, most submissions are approved within a few minutes. If it's too easy to get a gun, maybe the feds aren't properly enforcing the laws that are already on the books. Perhaps such bureaucratic slothfulness explains how a politician's son can perjure himself about having been run out of the Navy for smoking crack, and not be prosecuted.
J. wrote: "Lizzie,Have you bought a firearm?
All FFLs are required by law to submit an ATF FORM 4473 which includes the buyer's ID, address, and affidavit of legality. Thanks to modern technology, most sub..."
Arizona law - no form required and no background check for a private seller. Aside from knowing someone, there are so many gun shows with "private sellers" that I can buy one in moments. I don't have to prove I am legally able to buy it - which means former criminals can easily purchase as well.
https://www.shouselaw.com/az/defense/...
India grows record amounts of food."NEW DELHI: India in 2020-21 produced an all-time high 308 million tonnes of foodgrains, which was 3.7% higher than the output in previous year, the agriculture ministry said on Wednesday."
REF: (TimesOfIndia): https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/i...
While deploying massive reforestation projects.
REF: (DW News): https://www.dw.com/en/indians-plant-2...
So, more food & more forests...
Graeme wrote: "India grows record amounts of food."NEW DELHI: India in 2020-21 produced an all-time high 308 million tonnes of foodgrains, which was 3.7% higher than the output in previous year, the agriculture..."
Between 1975 and 2010, the population doubled to 1.2 billion and is now just under 1.4. Not noticed an improvement in food distribution for the extra mouths needing that 3.7%
Lizzie wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Philip wrote: "Scout wrote: "Oh, my, Nik. I see you support the Second Amendment :-) We need to have the freedom to remain well armed just in case things go sideways."The US ha..."
There are plenty of gun laws in America already. We do not need more to be honest. The ones that are causing all of the mayhem are not law abiding citizens. The argument about mentally ill getting guns is much like keeping the guns out of the hands of abusers. It sounds great until one looks at the numbers. Laws are by nature reactive and there is a very good reason for that, to protect both rights and lives. so until ones is declared mentally ill or unbalanced, the stand is that they are both sane and competent. As long as someone is competent, why should they not be allowed to own a weapon? Because someone is worried? How do we know they are reasonable or do not have it in for this person? Just because one does not like guns, it does not mean they get to dictate to others that own them legally and cause not trouble.
As for abusers, if they have been convicted, then they are already subject to laws. If they have not been convicted, then what have they done to warrant losing their right to a gun? If there is a presumption of innocence and they have not been convicted?
I certainly understand your felling and frustration. I wish the violence would stop too.
Philip wrote: "Graeme wrote: "India grows record amounts of food."NEW DELHI: India in 2020-21 produced an all-time high 308 million tonnes of foodgrains, which was 3.7% higher than the output in previous year, ..."
Food distribution is not the problem, politics is the problem. There is so much food floating around that obesity is an issue.
Papaphilly wrote: "Lizzie wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Philip wrote: "Scout wrote: "Oh, my, Nik. I see you support the Second Amendment :-) We need to have the freedom to remain well armed just in case things go sidewa..."My issue is the shootings in schools and other public places with lots of young people and children. I am really glad I didn't have that fear in school and that as a parent I didn't feel that fear for my children. However, with my daughter being a teacher, she has experienced it first-hand and she deals with the fears of her students regularly.
As for laws, my point is that places like Arizona, who is not alone, no one is responsible. I can buy a gun. You can sell it to me. No checks. It's all legal. Those laws should be fixed, because as long as no one is responsible then people generally go with making a sale rather than being worried about the buyer.
My other issue is that this is not the same America that I lived in prior to 2007. We had guns in our home while raising our children. My children never "played" with the guns or threatened anyone with one or took it out when they shouldn't or showed it off to friends. Both my husbands hunted and so did my children. My daughter only did small game and was very accurate with her 22 rifle. My son shot his 1st deer at age 12 and bagged one every season. A lot easier in the midwest compared to AZ, but I always had 3 deer in my freezer for winter.
Despite all of that, I don't have a gun now and I no longer travel with one in my car. The biggest part of that is with my disability I don't feel I can safely use one and don't want it available for somone else to use.
I'll bet that a lot of Afghans who are being abandoned by the U.S. and are being threatened with beheading wish they were armed and could go down fighting and defending themselves and their families. I say it's better to be prepared for the worst than to be unprepared. Who's to say that our homeland won't at some point be invaded? Better to be armed or at the mercy of others?
Scout wrote: "I'll bet that a lot of Afghans who are being abandoned by the U.S. and are being threatened with beheading wish they were armed and could go down fighting and defending themselves and their families."Taliban in Afghan Capital Kabul Start Collecting Weapons From Civilians
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/art...
Who do you trust?
Scout wrote: "I'll bet that a lot of Afghans who are being abandoned by the U.S. and are being threatened with beheading wish they were armed and could go down fighting and defending themselves and their familie..."Even though I am not worried about our government going rogue, Scout has a truly valid point. It is pretty obvious the people without the guns tend to be on the wrong end of them....
Lizzie wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Lizzie wrote: "Papaphilly wrote: "Philip wrote: "Scout wrote: "Oh, my, Nik. I see you support the Second Amendment :-) We need to have the freedom to remain well armed just in ca..."Once again, there are plenty of laws already. New Jersey has some of the strictest gun laws in the nation and guess what, the bad guys get guns.
I am not doubting your sincerity or worries. I just do not subscribe to them. I will say this now as I say to all. If one wants to lessen the guns, turn yours in. BTW, if you look at all the statistics, you would be surprised how little gun violence there actually is compared to how many guns exist.
News on marine life - for food Tuna up the rest though is deeply depressinghttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-en...
Philip wrote: "News on marine life - for food Tuna up the rest though is deeply depressinghttps://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-en..."
Hi Philip,
For big picture fish data, we have ... https://ourworldindata.org/fish noting that agriculture is rapidly outpacing catch methods.
REF: https://ourworldindata.org/exports/ca...
Noting that full total fish production is approx. 200 million tonnes per year.
Regarding world cereal production.World cereal utilization in 2021/22 is forecast at 2 809 million tonnes, down 1.7 million tonnes since July but still up 1.4 percent (40.1 million tonnes) from the 2020/21 level and marking a new record high.
Noting: 200M tonne of fish. and 2,800M tonne of cereals.
REF: http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation...
Noting the above...."RNA N6-methyladenosine (m6A) modifications are essential in plants. Here, we show that transgenic expression of the human RNA demethylase FTO in rice caused a more than threefold increase in grain yield under greenhouse conditions. In field trials, transgenic expression of FTO in rice and potato caused ~50% increases in yield and biomass. We demonstrate that the presence of FTO stimulates root meristem cell proliferation and tiller bud formation and promotes photosynthetic efficiency and drought tolerance but has no effect on mature cell size, shoot meristem cell proliferation, root diameter, plant height or ploidy."
REF: https://www.nature.com/articles/s4158...
That's a 50% increase in yield for both rice and potatoes using the exact same technique.
The FTO system is widespread, so we can expect similar results across other plants such as corn and soybeans.
This change improves the efficiency of photosynthesis, and water, resulting in massive yield increase without additional land use - all demonstrated in live trials.
Results:
Drought tolerance.
Massive improved yields.
Same or reduced land use (hence habitat preservation).
This is not a 'frankenfoods,' situation. This is about switching on a gene that is already in the plant.
NOTE:
This is the primary reason that Paul Ehrlich, the Club of Rome, and the ancient MIT computer model that was used to generate the 'human over-population,' scare is utterly and comprehensively wrong.
Their abject failure to account for invention.
So what we will see is a massive increase in food yields, reducing pressure on habitats, and plant-based food production greatly exceeding the human population requirements as we undershoot the population curve (due to falling fertility) resulting in the final consignment of over-population scare into the dustbin of history.
Noting that a 50% increase in cereal yields meansNoting: 200M tonne of fish and 2,800M tonne of cereals goes to 200M tonne of fish and 4,200M tonne of cereals. (not counting livestock) but a 50% increase in cereals will support a 33% increase in population without problem.
While population increases from 7.5B to approx 10B (33% increase) at peak, and then declining due to low fertility.
And the waste and pollution form that population goes where, The material that increase wants come from where. Wood for furniture and build? Plastic, Oil, lithium batteries, CO2, global warming How does increased food help the rest of these issues,
It would be good to remove starvation and hunger for the world's poor, but food is not the only issue of increased world population. Even if habitat is not affected. (That's a hope not born out by experience) There has been no sign of that reversing - just the opposite in the last 500 years. How many rain forests have increased in size...
Philip wrote: "And the waste and pollution form that population goes where, The material that increase wants come from where. Wood for furniture and build? Plastic, Oil, lithium batteries, CO2, global warming H..."
Pollution is already decreasing naturally through invention. The population is predicted to hit a high of about 10 billion and the planet can handle that easily. After the high, it is predicted to drop over time. As for where, people will go where they go. As for the other questions, you are correct to question, but much of this is politically driven and at some point most of the world will have moved on from fossil fuels as both solar, wind, and water electricity fully develop.
I would question "the planet can handle that easily". Of course the planet will continue orbiting the star, but whether we like what is on it is another matter. If sea levels rise as predicted, they take out a lot of prime agricultural land, and moving the port cities will make immense demands on resources. Who is going to pay for the required changes? As for recycling, one of the first things I did in my scientific career outside theoretical/academic style research was to design a process to recycle plastics where all the main plastic types could be recovered, decolourized, and returned to more or less their initial state, with the most photochemically degraded materials removed. It was even economically viable at the time, which happened to be during the first OPEC oil crisis when various hydrocarbon-based products were going price crazy. So what happened? At the threat of this emerging, the majors started dumping new plastics in NZ, and the process was uneconomic. (A cheaper version replaced it and the factory operated for about 20 years until a fire made it cheaper to collect the insurance and close down than rebuild.) Meanwhile, now plastics pollution is a major problem. It could have been avoided.
My point is, what is technically feasible is not what decides - the decision is determined by the major established enterprises based on their bottom line in the next six months. The economy grows like Darwinian evolution - it cannot plan, which in turn means a major "extinction" event can occur that sends everything back to the "start again" phase with what is left over, however our economies won't like that because mineral processing is having to use increasingly low concentrations..
My guess is wind, hydro and solar will always only make minor but useful contributions as they also use very demanding levels of difficult to obtain resources.
We are outgrowing the cradle. We can seize a destiny as the founders of worlds. Or we can die a crib death. The choice is ours.
Philip wrote: "And the waste and pollution form that population goes where, The material that increase wants come from where. Wood for furniture and build? Plastic, Oil, lithium batteries, CO2, global warming H..."
Great point, Philip.
It isn't the threats which you can see that kill you.Occurrence of Polyethylene Terephthalate and Polycarbonate Microplastics in Infant and Adult Feces
https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs....#
If they were in the feces, it didn't kill them but passed through :-) A polymer like that could not be absorbed by the digestive system. That doesn't mean we should ignore it, but this has all the makings of another unnecessary scare.
Ian wrote: "If they were in the feces, it didn't kill them but passed through :-) A polymer like that could not be absorbed by the digestive system. That doesn't mean we should ignore it, but this has all the ..."CAREFUL,
You are starting to sound like me....8^)
UK fertility rate continues to tumble."Statistics spanning back to before the Second World War received a new record low in 2020. In England and Wales the female fertility rate fell to 1.58. That's 0.5 less than the previous low of 2001 and 1.5 less than the wartime fall to 1.73 in 1941. The latest live birth figures also represent the fifth consecutive year of decreases."
REF: https://www.statista.com/chart/25975/...
A fertility rate of 2.1 is required for simple replacement of the population.
The
future beckons and the
future recedes.
Graeme wrote: "UK fertility rate continues to tumble."Statistics spanning back to before the Second World War received a new record low in 2020. In England and Wales the female fertility rate fell to 1.58. That..."
But in same period UK population still increased despite COVID
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati...
Philip wrote: "Graeme wrote: "UK fertility rate continues to tumble."Statistics spanning back to before the Second World War received a new record low in 2020. In England and Wales the female fertility rate fel..."
Immigration?
Graeme wrote: "Philip wrote: "Graeme wrote: "UK fertility rate continues to tumble."Statistics spanning back to before the Second World War received a new record low in 2020. In England and Wales the female fer..."
Most likely but of course the MSM claim Brexit caused a mass exodus evidenced by shortage of HGV drivers etc (despite same shortages in other major European countries). COVID will have meant many foreign immigrants could not travel; however illegal immigration via channel has shown significant increase. I suspect though that COVID has driven many expats to return home. The 2021 census may provide further answers.
The situation is very dynamic with many forces shaping events...Hard to tease out understanding.
I understand now that Poland is having difficulties with Brussels. The Polish court has apparently found the Polish Constitution takes legal precedence over the EU treaty, and Brussels is holding back Euros destined for Poland. I suspect the whole European system is under a barrage of forces.
An economic union may have difficulties bridging over ideological gaps and a different mentality. They can expel Poland and accept Ukraine instead, that would be the move :)
That would be a move. Maybe Germany would walk in support of Poland, and the EU would have a financial crisis. There are many fanciful scenarios :-)
Western civilization sperm counts down by over 50% since the 1970s."There has been an alarming decrease in the average sperm count of Western men over the last few decades. As this infographic from our new Then & Now series shows, research has revealed a 59 percent fall between 1973 and 2011 - from 337.5 million to just 137.5 million. Commenting on the decline, lead author of the study, Hagai Levine, said "the results are quite shocking...this is a classic under the radar huge public health problem that is really neglected"."
REF: Statista: https://www.statista.com/chart/10439/...
"This comprehensive meta-regression analysis reports a significant decline in sperm counts (as measured by SC and TSC) between 1973 and 2011, driven by a 50–60% decline among men unselected by fertility from North America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand. Because of the significant public health implications of these results, research on the causes of this continuing decline is urgently needed."
REF: Oxford: https://academic.oup.com/humupd/artic...
The Children of Men scenario continues to beckon while everyone is looking at the 'overpopulation,' problem.
Overpopulation is a fear in the process of becoming a myth.
The world is already over-populated because of the impact of that population on the rest of the species and habitat on the planet.Waste, air quality, water quality, are all caused by humans (including me) and their wasteful selfish habits.
By the time the decline caused by fertility actually reduces human population we'll probably be close to 10 billion. There may be enough food, although I doubt distribution will ever catch up.
We may have started reducing carbonisation of the atmosphere (Saudi promise for 2060, Australia 2050 recent announcements.
We may also have yet another financial crisis due to age caused by fertility, but by them Africa's population may have doubled
World, Writing, Wealth
Books mentioned in this topic
An Essay on the Principle of Population: The Future Improvement of Society (other topics)The Children of Men (other topics)
Make Room! Make Room! (other topics)
The Population Bomb (other topics)
An Essay on the Principle of Population (other topics)
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The presumption is that world's distribution of food will improve - evidence why it will?
When (if is a bit late) ag..."
China has announced further coal-fired power stations are being built and their emissions from that source will not plateau for another ten years. There is no doubt the effects of climate change will get worse, which means that the chances of a reduction in overall food production would seem to be inevitable, especially if we don't do something about the great ice sheets. There is scope for sea level rise of 65 meters. See what will happen on Google Earth if that occurs.
There is also the problem of the possible overturn of the Gulf Stream (I have recently blogged on this) which will give Europe a climate a little like Kerguelen so European food production will tank but they will burn more gas to keep warm. All this doesn't have to happen, but the chances of it happening are getting steadily stronger.