World, Writing, Wealth discussion
Wealth & Economics
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If there were just enough food for the entire humanity..
Ian wrote: "Just to clarify, the total amount of water on the planet is constant, more or less. There is probably a small amount of hydrogen lost to space, which means there is a tiny drop in the total, but it..."It's not just the melting ice. All the water we pull out of the ground for our use eventually ends up as wastewater which, eventually, flows out to sea. I think it was a Japanese study a few years ago that attributed as much as 40% of the rise in ocean levels was attributed to ground water eventually making its way into the oceans.
Not eating meat saves water. It's more efficient environmentally. Most of the rain forests are cut down for grazing land for cattle. Eat less (or no) meat!
I agree with Philip that the rate of population growth may be slowing, but the population is still increasing. That graph says to me that the Industrial Revolution made food more readily available to the masses, and population rose to meet production. Now, we're hitting a plateau. Producing food for a growing population is eating away at our rain forests (whether through crop production or grazing) and it's depleting our water supply, as well as our topsoil. The growing extraction of groundwater (maybe causing higher sea levels or lower ground levels) is a result of growing populations. And rain forests being cut down is the result of a need to feed a growing population - whether it's being done for grazing or for growing crops. The benefits of the Industrial Revolution have expired, and now natural resources are taking on the burden of growth.
The world's population is currently increasing because there are a lot of people aged between 20 and 40, the main baby-having age. It's due to peak sometime this century somewhere between 9 and 11 billion, and then start to decline. You might think that's still too many people. However, barring a deadly epidemic, nuclear war, or other disaster, that's as good as it gets.
And we actually do have enough food to feed that many people, if we eat sustainably. The rainforests are not being cut down to feed the growing numbers of poor in Brazil. They are being cut down to produce meat and biofuels for the rich and middle classes around the world.
Scout wrote: "...our rain forests ..."If you mean Amazon rain-forest, I guess Brazilians would argue its theirs -:)
I remember a friend from the States mentioning that paper manufacturers lobby might be impeding "paperless" process with regard to different bills, returns, declarations and so on. Has anyone heard about it?
Scout wrote: "Sorry, Graeme, for my vehemence there. This topic pushes my buttons, in part because I am worried about what we're doing to the earth, and wildlife in particular. There are increasing stories in th..."Hi Scout, no problem.
I'm 55yo now. When I was 18 I believed as you do now. The framework of belief about how humanity/environment/economy/resources/technology etc operate that you are coming from is one that I have - after due consideration - rejected.
There are specific tenets that you believe such as economic growth will destroy the environment. I used to believe that too, now I think that 'appropriate,' deployment of the best of modern technology is absolutely necessary to saving the environment.
Given our premises are different, it's inevitable that our conclusions will be different.
As for caring for the environment - of course I care. Please don't make the mistake of assuming that if someone is not aligned with your thinking, that they must not be aligned with you on a motivational or moral axis.
My whole approach for action in my life is to produce the greatest benefit for the greatest number at the least possible cost and least possible harm.
Enuf said, no harm done, and I hope I haven't offended anyone here.
Happy to continue the conversation.
Cheers Graeme
Fiona wrote: "The world's population is currently increasing because there are a lot of people aged between 20 and 40, the main baby-having age. It's due to peak sometime this century somewhere between 9 and 11 ..."The Bio-fuel initiative was/is incredibly stupid.
Hi, Fiona. "If we eat sustainably" doesn't mean anything in terms of today's environment, since that doesn't seem likely for many years, if ever. If, as you say, rain forests "are being cut down to produce meat and biofuels for the rich and middle classes around the world," isn't it being done to support a growing number of rich and middle class people? More people = more destruction of the evironment.
Hi, Nik. The destruction of the Amazon ecosystem affects the health of the planet, not just Brazilians. At some point, despite Trump, we need to form a coalition among developed countries that has as its aim protecting the planet. And it needs to have teeth.
Scout wrote: "At some point, despite Trump, we need to form a coalition among developed countries that has as its aim protecting the planet. And it needs to have teeth..."That's a big call, Scout.
By teeth, do you mean using military force to enforce conformance with 'protecting the environment?'
Scout wrote: "....we need to form a coalition among developed countries that has as its aim protecting the planet. And it needs to have teeth..."Agree. Teeth don't necessarily mean force. It can be in the form of incentives, like with emissions trading, for example: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissio... . Don't follow enough to judge whether the system is successful though.
Or maybe legal remedies. If Danube river passes through a dozen of countries in Europe, for example, it doesn't make sense if one of the countries up the stream would allow pollution and others would have to suffer.
No, Graeme, I wasn't suggesting military enforcement. There are other economic/trade pressures or incentives that could be used.
Scout wrote: "No, Graeme, I wasn't suggesting military enforcement. There are other economic/trade pressures or incentives that could be used."Cool.
The FAO illustrate that approx. 30+% of all the food grown is wasted.REF: http://www.fao.org/save-food/resource...
So, with current technology/economics we grow more than enough food to feed everyone. What is the opportunity to improve the ability to store, transport, and refrigerate food to minimize wastage and feed the population of the world until it peaks and declines?
Can it be so that the uneven distribution of goods/food/resources is a bigger problem than overpopulation? Inequality, even acute is probably natural and I'm not against it, but I don't think anyone has to die because of that. What do you think?
In third-world countries, fresh food must be locally grown. Staples like rice can be imported and distributed. No way I can see to preserve and distribute excess fresh food from wealthy countries to those who need it.
US Population Growth slows to lowest rate in a century.REF: https://apnews.com/f2fc555b185859a381...
"The past year’s population growth rate in the United States was the slowest in a century due to declining births, increasing deaths and the slowdown of international migration, according to figures released Monday by the U.S. Census Bureau."
The high rate of waste isn't a storage issue, it's one of, well, wastefulness.People buy stuff they don't need, it sits in their fridges or cupboards until it goes bad, and then they toss it...oh well!
People are also religious about the sell by or use by date on things. When that date passes, they toss out the food automatically. No one checks to see if the food is actually bad before tossing it, they just toss it.
People are also picky about what food looks like. Crops have to come out of the fields picture-perfect or people won't buy them. If a tomato is not the exact shade of red consumers expect or if a pepper is misshapen in the slightest bit, it usually gets rejected because most people won't buy it. There is a disconnect with consumers when it comes to where food comes from. They've lost the understanding that most food comes directly from a farm, instead shopping like their meat and produce should have been stamped out in a factory.
Restaurants are a huge source of that waste. People order stuff they don't finish. If they don't like the looks of a plate, it gets sent back and tossed in the trash. If the cooks don't get an order exactly right, it goes in the trash. And that doesn't even account for the scraps when they cut down a piece of meat into the exact portion size, etc.
That 30% figure is largely due to the consumer here in the West that never experienced any kind of hardship that would force them to be careful with their food the way they would with their money...and frankly most consumers here in West aren't even careful with their money, even after the recession we just climbed out of...
Graeme wrote: "US Population Growth slows to lowest rate in a century.REF: https://apnews.com/f2fc555b185859a381...
"The past year’s population growth rate in the United States was the slowest in a ..."
If there's a growth rate, even if it's slowing, how many additional humans is that for the earth to support? Don't raw numbers matter when it comes to sharing limited resources?
J.J. wrote: "The high rate of waste isn't a storage issue, it's one of, well, wastefulness.People buy stuff they don't need, it sits in their fridges or cupboards until it goes bad, and then they toss it...oh..."
I agree. What's the solution?
On a very micro-level rather than global. Or, in other words, in my own personal life ---There would be less waste from my fridge if someone else did my shopping twice a week. We don't have that available here. Since shopping is painful for me, I put it off as long as possible and then buy too much fresh stuff that I can't eat in a reasonable time. Worse, what sounds good in the grocery store or while I am making my list, a few days later I don't feel like eating or don't have the physical ability to cook. When I had a family at home and was on a strict budget, food never got wasted. Then, I was also physically able to cook more and make dishes out of ingredients to freeze for later meals.
Groceries for 1 is very difficult and smaller numbers of portions equals higher costs. So, it's not only my problems but also we live with an economy that savings is in bulk.
My more recent issue is protein. I need to limit it for kidney disease but most of the pre-made individual meals are geared towards high protein, even the vegetarian meals.
I don't pay attention to expiration dates and my daughter insists on cleaning out my stuff every year when she visits. She expects me to get food poisoning. Personally, we were taught to pay attention to the can (no swelling, no rust) and to the smell when opened. I know you can't always smell when food has a nasty bacteria, but despite my eggs and yogurt in my fridge being past expiration dates on the package, I have never gotten sick from eating them. I pay attention to anything with mayo in it. Seriously, can catsup, soy sauce, or fake maple syrup and such condiments spoil?
Graeme's lengthy explanation of a huge city in message 205 - it is essentially what we would have to do to create a ship to the stars, until such time as we create FTL. I expect that all those processes already exist but would be hard to sell to our current public and would be difficult to impose as too many big businesses with political clout would have their profit margins reduced.In regards to the public acceptance. A small town in AZ passed the no plastic bag law. Locally, the response was to complain and comment did they think they were in California (which is almost always said here about anything environmental). I spent a month in California with my sister and bringing my own bag wasn't a problem. They still allowed a person to pay a 25 cent fee to buy the store's bag, so it wasn't a big fee, but it worked. As a result I bought more reuseable bags from Trader Joe's and keep 5 in my car. I prefer to use them as they are shaped like the old grcocery store; more fits in one bag and I never have something break through the bag and hit the ground.
UK has pay for plastic bags now and consequently that waste has significantly reduced. however, food packaging is still a big issue with non-recyclable plastic or useless packaging e.g bananas, oranges etc wrapped in plastic to protect them or conveniently sell 4/6/8 when you only want 2.
Fiona wrote: "And we actually do have enough food to feed that many people, if we eat sustainably. ..."The big secret is that there is more food that the world knows what to do with it. There is no food shortage and has not been since at least the early 1960's. Most of what is assumed to be shortages is either economics or politics, not the lack of available food. Why send fresh fruit and vegetables to parts of the world when they cannot afford to buy it or even have the infrastructure to be able to move it in the first place? What government is going to allow food into worn torn areas that are held by rebels?
I like mushrooms. I really like mushroom risotto. Today at my local grocery store I learned that the only fresh shrooms are white, various bella sizes, and shitake. I asked the produce guy and he commented that other mushrooms, such as, oyster, weren't selling and they would end up being thrown out as they spoiled.I remember a time when I could only get canned mushrooms. I have a supply of dried mushrooms, but they are always rubbery when reconstituted. I do grind them into powder to make mushroom broths with them.
My point is, availability is also going to be based on what the community buys. I can't blame the grocery store for choosing not to stock items that don't sell well. At age 60, I can also appreciate that I have quadruple the choices in products as compared to 30 years ago.
Philip wrote: "UK has pay for plastic bags now and consequently that waste has significantly reduced. however, food packaging is still a big issue with non-recyclable plastic or useless packaging e.g bananas, ora..."That is interesting. Fruit in the USA, at least in the states I have lived or shopped in, are generally individually stocked and we pick how many and which ones we want. They do offer some things in bags, but mostly limited to berries and cuties (mandarin type oranges). I have never seen bananas sold in bags.
Lizzie wrote: "Philip wrote: "UK has pay for plastic bags now and consequently that waste has significantly reduced. however, food packaging is still a big issue with non-recyclable plastic or useless packaging e..."The madness of UK supermarkets.
Lizzie wrote: "I have never seen bananas sold in bags..."They tried it in NJ about three years ago and it did not catch on.
Lizzie wrote: "At age 60, I can also appreciate that I have quadruple the choices in products as compared to 30 years ago...."This is a great point. I am willing to bet for anyone under 40 does not remember the idea of seasonal fruit. When I was young, all fruit but bananas were seasonal. In other words, you could only get them during a certain time of the year. Strawberries were late June through early August. Watermelon was early July through Labor day and so forth. The idea of getting strawberries right now at a good price and be delicious was the stuff of Science Fiction.
J.J. wrote: "The high rate of waste isn't a storage issue, it's one of, well, wastefulness.People buy stuff they don't need, it sits in their fridges or cupboards until it goes bad, and then they toss it...oh..."
Any ideas for solutions?
Scout wrote: "J.J. wrote: "The high rate of waste isn't a storage issue, it's one of, well, wastefulness.People buy stuff they don't need, it sits in their fridges or cupboards until it goes bad, and then they..."
When I was a family of 4, things didn't sit on the shelves. As a family of 1, I buy things because it's on sale or because it is my intention to cook a certain dish, but then I lose my appetite for it and/or don't have the energy to actually cook it. So the ingredients go to waste and eventually get tossed.
I don't have any solutions.
I can imagine those smart fridges or shelves being able to read expiry dates from "smart" food with a chip, sending notification to your cellphone or to the cellphone of a charity collecting soon-to-expire products in a near future
Nik wrote: "I can imagine those smart fridges or shelves being able to read expiry dates from "smart" food with a chip, sending notification to your cellphone or to the cellphone of a charity collecting soon-t..."I haven't checked into what they can actually do, but I have seen ads by LG, Whirlpool, and Samsung for smart refrigerators that let you see on your phone what is in it or can tell you when you are out of milk.
From NASA (12th/Feb/2020) - "The world is literally a greener place than it was 20 years ago, and data from NASA satellites has revealed a counterintuitive source for much of this new foliage: China and India. A new study shows that the two emerging countries with the world’s biggest populations are leading the increase in greening on land. The effect stems mainly from ambitious tree planting programs in China and intensive agriculture in both countries."Courtesy of data from the MODIS satellite.
REF: https://www.nasa.gov/feature/ames/hum...
Scout wrote: "J.J. wrote: "The high rate of waste isn't a storage issue, it's one of, well, wastefulness.People buy stuff they don't need, it sits in their fridges or cupboards until it goes bad, and then they..."
All you can do is try to change public perception. You have to re-train people to judge when food goes bad based on the item itself, and not on some mandated, preprinted date. I've never had milk go bad at or before the expiration date, but a lot of people will dump it regardless. You have to get people to think about how it smells instead of what the package says.
Also, you have to get people to stop buying stuff they don't need, and stop buying stuff they do need when they don't need it. As Lizzie points out, that is easier said than done. And despite this excuse that "healthy food is expensive" to explain why poor people make bad food decisions, food is not expensive. Food is actually pretty cheap, and that's why it's easy for a lot of people to take chances on buying something they may or may not end up eating. The solution to that is to make food expensive enough to get people to make hard choices before buying something that might get tossed. As consumers, none of us want to see that though.
J.J. wrote: "Scout wrote: "J.J. wrote: "The high rate of waste isn't a storage issue, it's one of, well, wastefulness.People buy stuff they don't need, it sits in their fridges or cupboards until it goes bad,..."
My son and girlfriend were here and I was trying to give away various items. She took one look at the expiration date and got a certain look on her face. I explained that you can tell when those items go bad and it's rare that they do. That putting on expiration dates is a new thing and canned products have been sold for decades prior to a date being put on the can. Many of them say best use by and not expires. My son said don't bother, she won't use it and it will get thrown away.
I wonder if the next time they visit and I cook, if she will be pulling cans out of the garbage to check dates before eating?
I don't think healthy food is cheap. I don't think food is cheap. Considering Arizona is a big producer of citrus, melons, broccoli, lettuce and other produce (a few years ago, we were 3rd in the country for agriculture production), and over 40% of our agriculture industry is livestock, along with a huge diary production, food is cheaper in Milwaukee than it is where I live in AZ. I can only assume we export so much of it that it doesn't get sold locally to grocery store chains.I think another problem is the more recent generations did not have the benefit of learning how to can or freeze food from their grandmother or mother-in-law, (both born before 1920). So they don't use a fresh vegetable or fruit and it sits and spoils. I see many 20 to 45 year olds, simply throw it all away, because they don't know any better.
With little effort, those tomatoes can be blanched, peeled, and chopped or blended and put in the freezer for use in soups and sauces. I buy lots of berries and bananas on sale during the season and freeze half of them to use in smoothies during the out of season price bump. I peel the shrimp and cook the shells to make seafood broth. (I make broth out of many things, from mushroom to pork, and keep a supply in my freezer for risotto and soups.) When they start looking limp, I slice and saute onion, carrots, mushrooms and celery and toss them in the freezer in portion size bags. Leftover veggies go into a canning jar and into the freezer, to dump into soups and casseroles. Cheese starts to get old, cut off the mold, shred it, and dump it in the freezer to use in Mexican food dishes or casseroles.
I remember teaching my daughter how to make a casserole when she was about 10. Her response, was, "wow, Mom. It's just like Hamburger Helper."
US Fertility rate continues to drop."The number of children born in the United States has hit its lowest level in 35 years, according to new federal data, as demographers worry that a baby bust that emerged after the Great Recession is becoming permanent."
REF: https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare...
Graeme wrote: "US Fertility rate continues to drop."The number of children born in the United States has hit its lowest level in 35 years, according to new federal data, as demographers worry that a baby bust t..."
I have seen that issue raised when researching illegal immigrant issues. Our baby boomer population is aging out of the workforce and we have not reproduced in numbers that will support the projected future workforce.
I wonder, if birth rates will rise as a result of people being stuck at home or if they will decrease even further out of fear?
I think further reduction out of fear.No job no baby.
I read recently that the increase in infectious diseases is in part due to deforestation, caused by increasing population and demands for more cropland. This puts humans in close contact with animals such as bats, which spread disease to domesticated animals.https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/arti...
It's well known that a viral war began when we adopted agriculture and animal husbandry.Our immune systems are now the result of that war.
More news on the Over-Population vs Fertility Crash scenarios."The world is ill-prepared for the global crash in children being born which is set to have a "jaw-dropping" impact on societies, say researchers.
Falling fertility rates mean nearly every country could have shrinking populations by the end of the century.
And 23 nations - including Spain and Japan - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.
Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born."
REF: BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521
"Our findings suggest that continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will hasten declines in fertility and slow population growth. A sustained TFR lower than the replacement level in many countries, including China and India, would have economic, social, environmental, and geopolitical consequences. Policy options to adapt to continued low fertility, while sustaining and enhancing female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come."
REF: Lancet: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/la...
So, which future is more likely - an over-population doom or a fertility crash? Or something else?
Fertility crash.I think that some of America's current decisions on abortion and payment of birth control is secretly related to the reduction of our population and fear over that.
Well, Graeme, if you're going to open it up to something else, how about another pandemic? How about severe global warming leading to massive flooding, stronger hurricanes, and loss of low coastal areas?On second thought, nah, I'm just going to go with aliens subjugating the human race and farming us for biofuel. ;)
G.R. wrote: "... aliens subjugating the human race and farming us for biofuel. ;)..."If after a hundred years long healthy and fulfilled life - that would be quite merciful. Meanwhile, we need to sort out what to do with fellow subjugating humans :)
If fertility stats are true we may avoid the very worst aspects of climate change and environmental diversity destruction. I suspect that the changes in 100 years will be way to late if we have no rain forests and fewer animals and less agricultural land due to flooding all of which are happening now. Yes I'm including rain forests being cut down to create cattle farms
I think the population will fall and stabilize. I am not so sure the population is about fertility than it is about women making choices as the educate themselves and think for themselves. As women's situation better, the birth rate drops. Education seems to be the biggest marker of declining birthrates.
Papaphilly wrote: "I think the population will fall and stabilize. I am not so sure the population is about fertility than it is about women making choices as the educate themselves and think for themselves. As women..."Apparently economics is a big factor for female choice. Once Per Capita GDP reaches around $10K USD, the economy has begun to shift away from lots of 'many hands make light work,' labour to more knowledge based labour, educating kids costs money, people (men & women) are more aware of the choices and impacts and start choosing smaller families.
World, Writing, Wealth
Books mentioned in this topic
An Essay on the Principle of Population: The Future Improvement of Society (other topics)The Children of Men (other topics)
Make Room! Make Room! (other topics)
The Population Bomb (other topics)
An Essay on the Principle of Population (other topics)
More...
In much of the developed world, the rate of population growth has slowed down. In some places (e,g, Japan, Russia), populations are actu..."
We covered this before but - the rate of increase may slow as Graeme has raised before due to fertility rates in some countries but the population is still increasing and with better medical support the death rate is decreasing i.e. living longer and more surviving into be adults
Graph below is much longer view. The waste and CO2 emissions for a larger population remain the issue. Wealthy consume much more