Brexit - ciao Britain? She doesn't go anywhere

[Philip]

They already have during the election

[Nick]

Philip wrote: "They already have during the election"

Will they even bother to read the suppressed security report now Boris (say that without a hollywood russian accent!) is in power?

I predict we will just get told its all fine and thats that.

[Philip]

For the last 3 years every issue was close or stalled from that report to Heathrow expansion now Boris has a majority of 80 officially. In reality more than that because Sinn Féin do not sit (7) and DUP (8) may still support

If he proposes it and and his own party supports (clear out of left leaning Conservatives) he can carry any vote. The Lords cannot block any clear manifesto commitment or finance bill. No speaker driven amendments at every drop of a hat to thwart. Including guillotining of debate time if needed. Finally an opportunity for action.

I take the glad tidings of one nation with the same pinch of salt.

EU might need to wake up to the reality but they won't.

[Ian]

I think the EU will wake up, but not do enough about it. But I also think Germany will do some serious thinking. It gets an enormous trade benefit and it also has a big trade surplus wit the UK. I think Germany will move to give Boris his trade deal, because otherwise they have too much to lose.

[Philip]

Since the referendum the EU has delayed and encouraged a change or a re-run just like they did for Ireland and France (albeit not exit referenda)

The EU exports to UK more than the UK exports to EU
Ireland in particular has multiple import routes through UK
EU needs UK's money (and data) to support its projects including all the things that UK is allegedly locked out of like Europol. The loss of net contribution to overall budget will be a major hit
Via UK, EU has had some access to 5 eyes intel - so if EU still wants that it will need to play ball.

None of this makes a good future relationship deal certain but maybe, just maybe, there might be some grown up sensible compromise rather than endless hope that UK would reverse its decision.

US seem keen but will demand a lot with Trump. China and India (60% EU tariff on some goods) are ready to deal apparently. None will be easy but I also hope NZ, Aus, Canada and in particular small Caribbean Islands can get market access once more. They in particular had several export industries ruined by EU protectionism of Spanish Bananas as an example. Maybe the Commonwealth will live up to its name.

I almost sound optimistic :-/

[J.]

Congratulations to the winners. Condolences to the losers.

There is a question about British politics which has bothered me for several years. Is Jacob Rees-Mogg related to George Will? They look very similar to each other, and they both claim to be among the conservatives of their respective nations. Though George might suspect Jacob of communist tendencies. For those unfamiliar with Mr. Will this interview should help you get a sense of him.

https://youtu.be/JhLJpmZH9QE

[Nik]

Spending a day drinking beers with a friend from London, sounds like a lot of dudes heaved a sigh of relief there, even him - initially a remainer :)

[Philip]

Nik wrote: "Spending a day drinking beers with a friend from London, sounds like a lot of dudes heaved a sigh of relief there, even him - initially a remainer :)"

A huge sigh of relief that maybe just maybe we can progress and take positive action and perhaps Parliament can get back to normal business (lots of overdue legislation) rather than endless Brexit debates. Mind you we still have to get through the January Bill stages and then only the rest of the year doing a trade deal.

[Ian]

Trade deals should not hold up Parliament too much. A lot of the time is spent on technical details that are sorted through the civil service, with a specific Minister overseeing. Most of these details are too trivial for Parliament as a whole. NZ has negotiated a number of trade deals, and Parliament hardly noticed in terms of holdups to other legislation.

[Philip]

Ian wrote: "Trade deals should not hold up Parliament too much. A lot of the time is spent on technical details that are sorted through the civil service, with a specific Minister overseeing. Most of these det..."

We can hope it will be true. Unfortunately we have had the experience of endless minor legislation just designed to frustrate progress. Again that should be in the past if the new Conservative MPs follow their manifesto to get it all done.

[Nik]

And now royal Brexit:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dail...

Wonder if they meet Canadian immigration criteria

[Ian]

Wonder whether they would follow through with this claim of being economically independent if they had to leave the "Royal money" behind?

[J.J.]

Ian wrote: "Wonder whether they would follow through with this claim of being economically independent if they had to leave the "Royal money" behind?"

Are you kidding? All Harry has to do is draw a massive salary from his charitable foundations as an "administrator." Where do you think half the donations from the Clinton Foundation went?

[J.]

Nik wrote: "And now royal Brexit:
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dail...

Wonder if they meet Canadian immigratio..."

I do love the indignation on display in the article. You would think that they got involved with an international underage sex slavery and extortion ring, or something. But obviously no member of the Royal family would ever do that, right...

[Ian]

J. J., right now I wish I could be an "administrator".

[J.J.]

You could always start your own "charity."

Sadly, it's actually common. The Wounded Warrior Project came under fire a few years ago because a large chunk of the donations went to "administration" of the charity.

[Ian]

Which is why I am reluctant to give to charities that are opaque as to where the money goes. Back to the Prince, would he remain associated with the charity if he were not royal? Such antics may very well end the monarchy, and if it did, their money should be retained by the state. They only have that money because they represent the state.

[Philip]

Prince Harry does not directly receive money from the state. The cottage he and Meaghan live in was refurbished by the state and it remains a state property.

[Philip]

Back to main thread - the exit bill from EU passed in the House of Commons this week. It is now in the House of Lords before returning to the Commons and then Royal Assent.

The new EU President Ursula von der Leyen visited Boris Johnson this week to discuss Trade agreement after she went public stating there was no time to get it done before end of year.

[Ian]

One year is "no time"? Politicians are even worse than lawyers at getting things done.

[Philip]

Ian wrote: "One year is "no time"? Politicians are even worse than lawyers at getting things done."

However Boris was told the exit deal could not be renegotiated and yet it was. Given UK's trade is totally aligned with EU at present it depends how far the UK wishes to diverge. I suspect not far but enough to claim and allow own trade deals which can be done from 1st Feb.

[Papaphilly]

Ian wrote: "One year is "no time"? Politicians are even worse than lawyers at getting things done."

I have no dog in the fight either leave nor stay. This is one for the British to work out. Up to the last election, it was a truly close split. The losing side was not going to make it easy because they wanted to stay. They would throw every monkey wrench to stay. The winning side then split over how to leave with no one faction controlling and no one faction willing give an inch. On top of that, it was pretty near 50-50 on either side. No, this was not going to be finished fast.

Since the election it is pretty obvious what the public wants.

[Nik]

So, is Britain celebrating tonight, fireworks, booze, festival? Does it feel like independence?

[Philip]

Nik wrote: "So, is Britain celebrating tonight, fireworks, booze, festival? Does it feel like independence?"

No difference at all and there won't be at least until 31st Dec as all the current rules continue during the transition after tonight 23:00 G.M.T

We have the trade etc negotiations now and at the end of that period we will either be out with no deal and trade on WTO terms or we will have a deal with remaining EU 27.

We will continue to pay in fees this year but on 31st Dec without some other arrangement this stops as does access to fishing grounds etc.

[Ian]

On our news, a certain N Sturgeon was saying that the Scottish parliament is sufficient to call a new referendum on leaving the UK. I don't know whether that is celebrating or not.

I have a friend from my time there who has told me he will wear a black shirt today.

[Philip]

Scottish parliament formally approached Westminster UK parliament for legislation allowing a second Scottish independence referendum - which was refused on grounds SNP had stated including NS that the previous one was a once in a generation event
clearly that was before UK Brexit. SNP claimed today that a 52% poll of 1000 people was sufficient ground to show independence was now wanted - margin of error in poll 3-4%
UK Gov has told SNP to concentrate on fixing their lamentable performance in devolved powers covering, health, education etc.

SNP blames all issues on Westminster UK Gov regardless of cause as way of pushing independence agenda - no change there

Yes similarities of Leave campaign blaming EU for lots of UK Gov issues

[Papaphilly]

So is this going to be good for the U.K. in the long run?

[Ian]

Fixing education and health would seem to be a good first step to show competence.

[Philip]

Papaphilly wrote: "So is this going to be good for the U.K. in the long run?"

It depends who you want to believe and on other issues. I suspect very little will change as the world is much bigger than the 27 (28) countries of the European Union. e.g. the current virus will have a bigger impact on world economy by actions mitigating the spread than whether UK and Europe can agree who gets to fish where

[Philip]

Ian wrote: "Fixing education and health would seem to be a good first step to show competence."

SNP has had multiple years in Gov to do that and failed but clearly in their eyes this demonstrates competence to govern an independent nation.
From my perspective (I blogged accordingly at the time) I would be happy for them to have an independence referendum and independence. As it is a Union all members of the Union should get a chance to vote for its dissolution. I would vote for Scottish independence just to get NS off of the TV screens.

[Ian]

Philip, I can sympathise with the reasoning in your last sentence, but I don't think the future of a nation should be decided on that ground :-)

[J.]

Mark "Count Dankula" Meechan, former UKIP candidate for MEP who came to fame by getting arrested for turning his then girlfriend's pug into a NAZI, has posted a Brexit Day video.

https://youtu.be/wkPkebcBzYA

I laughed, but I wouldn't recommend it for the kids.

[Philip]

Trade positions being set out and EU continuing on its 'you must be in EU rules and legal system' if you want to trade. This includes compliance/alignment to EU tax, spending and procurement rules - UK 'no we won't'

Gaps in EU - need for France and Spain in particular to get fishing access and budget, budget, budget for everyone else. EU commission wants >1% increase in EU budgets despite losing 2nd largest net contributor

UK wants tariff free trade like Canada deal and security access (as does EU) but won't accept ECJ jurisdiction or inability to change its own rules.

Initial positions and initial EU 'this is the deal statements' ignoring what has happened - again

[Ian]

Philip wrote: "Trade positions being set out and EU continuing on its 'you must be in EU rules and legal system' if you want to trade. This includes compliance/alignment to EU tax, spending and procurement rules ..."

In my opinion, this was sort of predictable, and it will continue for a while. What the EU fails to appreciate is that the UK can't accept the whole EU package of demands; if they did there would be no point in having left. Hopefully, by about August some degree of common sense will have struck, but I guess there can be no promises on that one.

[Philip]

Fundamentally the EU commission and many of its civil servants want an EU Federation whether for ideological or power reasons makes little difference. They have already dressed the trade system (Common Market EEC) into a semi-Nation state with associated trappings e.g. currency 19 out of remaining 27, flag, national anthem, representation on world bodies. They want an army and ever closer union.

UK has rejected this but they have not noticed that the UK is not alone in not wanting all the national paraphernalia

Now the trade talks are just a reminder that people in power do not willingly give up that power.

[Ian]

They may lose it once they discover the difficulty in paying the bills and if there is a serious internal recession through trade difficulties with the UK thanks to their actions. Of oourse, that will not help the UK.

[Papaphilly]

Let it runs its course. It is going to be bumpy for a while. The EU has more to lose than the UK. They will not let it go an easier than the UK and they lots of worries about loss of income. I expect it gets done within the year and all will be OK.

[Nik]

Both sides want to keep trading. To start from the most comfortable position for each party would be normal for negotiations, however it's likely the parties will close somewhere in the middle. The process might have its ups and downs, but any other resolution is improbable..

[Ian]

There is still the default position, which is WTO and my guess is that may end up being the situation initially when the year expires. However, this is still a highly reasonable trade route. For example, while NZ is negotiating a deal with the EU, it still trades under WTO and has a quite significant trade, the major restriction being agricultural limits to protect the EU's subsidised agriculture, and even if we get a deal, those limits will stay in place. Since the UK is a major importer of food, including from the EU, this sort of problem should not be significant.

[Philip]

Brexit negotiations for trade deal have restarted this week via video conference

[Papaphilly]

Philip wrote: "Brexit negotiations for trade deal have restarted this week via video conference"

This should be interesting with COVID-19 as a shadow.

[Philip]

All the usual anti-Brexit proponents are now up and claiming it should be delayed because of COVID

[Ian]

While many of the international economic organizations like the world bank want the negotiations to proceed and encourage both sides to make concessions so as to get on with it and remove some uncertainty, on the grounds that with COVID19 there is already too much uncertainty.

[Philip]

So Transition period is coming to an end and for those wanting more data on Brexit trade deal or not thought I would resurrect this thread

Brexit 101
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...

Trade latest
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...

[Ian]

So far, from what I see here, the transtion period has not achieved much :-(

[Nik]

I'm optimistic about a deal despite all the muscle - flexing simply because both sides have too much to lose without it. If Europe doesn't act somewhat rational at times, who can?

[Ian]

Nik, it is in situations like this that brinkmanship comes into play. Everyone leaves it to the last minute, hoping to force the other into additional concessions. It is the small business person who suffers in this scenario

[Nik]

Sure. We’ve seen and will see lots of it till the end - who blinks first at every milestone

[Philip]

Resumption of main trade talks

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...

[Ian]

Let's hope something good happens