World, Writing, Wealth discussion
World & Current Events
>
Brexit - ciao Britain? She doesn't go anywhere
Yeah, I have a few empties too - my weekly recycling bin shows that. And I agree about the fiction. I have political shenanigans in a number of my novels but if we gave Brexit a score of 10 on the bizarre scale, my efforts struggle to make 1
The reason for this is the simple fact that the political establishment in the UK is fundamentally 'Remainer.'The Brexit referendum result left them wrong-footed and they have been trying to defy the will of the people ever since.
If they had gotten behind the will of the people, this whole thing would have been done and dusted.
Yes, but they never had the courage to do it openly. They had the chance in the initial vote that nearly three years later led to the current situation and there was an overwhelming vote to follow "the will of the people". Now it is their will, but they still won't be honest about it.
If nothing else, Merkel, Macron, and the rest have gotten some entertainment.Is it odd that my penchant for schadenfreude has me hoping that the EU will turn down the extension request, just to see the looks on their faces?
Graeme wrote: "The reason for this is the simple fact that the political establishment in the UK is fundamentally 'Remainer.'The Brexit referendum result left them wrong-footed and they have been trying to defy..."
The 'will of the people' has been a term banded about for so long now its lost all meaning. Such a close vote was never a will of the people so it would always have ended in conflict even if roles had been reversed.
The problem is not everyone voted in the referendum (it should have been made mandatory) and now we have a clearer idea of what the leave vote actually means noone wants to take a moment to reevaluate and give people the chance to decide more upon known facts rather than political diatribe and outright lies. Britain is a polarised nation and I just cant see that chaging anytime soon.
Nick wrote: "Graeme wrote: "The reason for this is the simple fact that the political establishment in the UK is fundamentally 'Remainer.'The Brexit referendum result left them wrong-footed and they have been..."
Nor me, I live her and events over the last few days are so messy , even more divisive that I do not know what is going to happen. Me? I'm off on vacation.
The time for politicians to state whether the referendum represented the will of the people was when they voted to hand notice to the EU, and that parliamentary vote was overwhelming in favour of leaving. That was the time to debate whether the referendum was fair, but the politicians that were in favour of remaining, by and large, did not have the courage to make their argument then. Instead they have worked under cover since then to sabotage it, which means, even if they win their persistent undercutting, the other side will return the favour.To argue some did not vote is also pointless. A vote only has meaning if whatever wins is actioned. If you don't like one of the options, vote. If you can't get off your arse, then live with whatever happens.
As for the lies, the lies are coming thick and fast from remainers now. They won't even tell the truth about what they are trying to do.
More popcorn, please.
The absurdity of the situ, if I may, is that the U.K. has supposedly paid a lot of price already for the exit that didn't happen, be it in the form of a weaker pound ever since the referendum or of corporations relocating their biz on assumption that it would happen. The procrastination and this 'hung' situ may well be worse than any definite result of stay or leave.
Nik wrote: "The absurdity of the situ, if I may, is that the U.K. has supposedly paid a lot of price already for the exit that didn't happen, be it in the form of a weaker pound ever since the referendum or of..."Very true. The weaker pound may not be a disaster because it helps exporters but the relocation of biz is NOT good. I think the other biggest problem is much of the manufacturing has been done collaboratively, and those collaborations may be in risk.
Interesting. Looks like the main division is still about leave/remain, while "if leave, then how" entails another split. As of polling - when ppl are offered multiple options it's harder to gain a majority for any single one. Like in elections with multiple candidates, often only the second round btw the best two would be decisive. I guess those who voted 'leave' might not have imagined the Via Dolorosa ahead, but I guess it doesn't mean the referendum shouldn't be implemented. I'd say that a new referendum makes sense only after a few years "out".
The second referendum is the remain votes way of blocking Brexit regardless of deal or no deal. They dress up the leave vote as being misled in 2016 with no deal vote, yet polls do not show that. i.e. the leave vote would be smaller if it was no deal only. Delay, delay delay is what they are after as a means to wear down the process and just get it stopped without a cancel Article 50 bill actually going through Parliament. All the proponents of second referendum are remainers. ideally they want three questions on ref - leave with no deal, leave with some deal (pick any one) and remain thus splitting leave vote and leaving remain as winner then cancel article 50They all claim to be in favour of democracy whilst denying it - more trouble ahead as EU also know that is the tactic and bottom line for them is they need UK financial contribution to keep EU afloat even with UK's difficult approach. Therefore they will also do anything to delay process as they keep £1b for every month we stay in.
The poll shows the classic problem when there is a discrete issue, i.e. leave or not leave: If not leave there is only one option; if leave there appear to be many. The remainers, as Philip says, are simply hoping to delay it sufficiently that it cannot occur. You can't have a referendum where all supporters of one option have a clear vote, and all supporters of the other option have a range of choices.What you really need is another referendum, with the results forwarded to the tax department so that those who vote remain pay additional tax to make up the 1 bill per month. My guess is the result would be a lot clearer.
I see Boris has received a message from the EU that they accept his proposal. Did the acceptance come on a tape that then self-destructed? Maybe it should have because now all Bris has to do is sell it to the UK Parliament, which must come fairly close to "Mission Impossible". Any guesses what will happen, before it does?
Everyone says too close to callParty Seats:
Conservative 288
Labour 245
Independent 35
Scottish National Party 35
Liberal Democrat 19
Democratic Unionist Party 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid Cymru 4
Green Party 1
Speaker 1
Total number of seats 650
Lib Dems - Remain therefore vote against in hope they can get amendment to have 2nd in/out ref but preferably in/out/out
Scot Nationalists - Against as helps get Indy Ref 2 i.e. will vote for a confirmatory referendum
Plaid - Against
DUP - Against unless they can be further bribed/influenced
Independents and ex Conservative - guess - Remain
Sinn Fein - don't turn up
Green Against
Speaker and 3 dep speakers do not vote
So comes down to Conservative and Labour. Both have elements for and against - Most Cons for Most Lab against - I'd explain Labour party policy if anyone, including Labour, understood it but they might swing to confirmatory referendum if they think it helps them.
Note no Brexit MPs so irrelevant in voting terms in Parliament.
Add in abstentions (can't make mind up) and illness absence and number to win is not 326 but approx 310-315 but could be less. Tory expelled if they vote for it will be allowed back in party
My guess rejected. 2nd ref rejected, no deal.... but mood music according to media is it may just pass. Especially with confirmatory referendum which will delay again and EU seeming to state no further extension - Boris has threatened severe EU disruption if we are still at table i.e. veto all appointments, budget etc.
If as before nothing gets through then Boris needs EU to reject extension but must write letter requesting one.
The sad thing about this is that most of the rejections are not because they think that is best for the country but because they have other agendas
Basing on Philip's layout, previous history and non-related motivation, I guess the success in the Parliament remains unpredictable. For those who like bets: https://www.gambling.com/news/brexit-...Wonder if the divorce bill were to be paid the other direction, for example, the politicians would still be so entrenched to keep torpedoing any deal
UK Net contribution 2018 was £15.5 Bilhttps://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/govern...
£20 Bil sent £4.5 rebated
As far as I see on the news episode 178 ended with a cliffhanger, the series - to be continued. To add to the grotesque, even if EU dissolved at some stage, the U.K. might still be the only remaining member
Saturday sitting for first time since 1982 and still can't make a decision apart from to delay. Next vote(s) Monday
Our radio news had Corbyn demanding that Boris now request an extension, but for what reason? Does anyone actually think that an extension would do anything more than send more money to the EU as well as leading to more of the same in Parliament. The EU have stated they are not prepared to offer more concessions, and while they have offered minor ones this time around my guess is they will say enough is enough. It would be interesting to see what Corbyn would actually want, other than an extension to give him more speech-making opportunities that cost nothing (other than to all UK citizens).
Corbyn has no idea; however, there is a policy difference on some of the softer options whilst they miss the legal point. Many want to stay in Single Market and Custom's Union whilst forgetting that means legal authority would then rest with ECJ and no separate trade deals.Corbyn having called for a general election endlessly, now looks at the polls and doesn't want one. He knows that another referendum would be as decisive as the last one and may result in same finding. Meanwhile other referendum proposers all want 3 options on ballot to split leave vote including some ex-Conservative remainers.
The mess and embarrassment continues - I can only apologise to the rest of the world that this once great country's indecision.
I would assume that those who want to leave would never permit a multichoice referendum, where the remainers had only one choice. Added to which referenda should ask discrete (i.e. yes/no) questions.No need to apologise, Philip. We all know it is not you, or the millions of others. It is a group of politicians that are behaving badly, and yours are not the only politicians that do that. It is just that right now, yours are more obvious and exposed.
Who needs baking show, got talent or X factor, when Brexit is still in town with fresh and dramatic developments almost daily or even hourly like today?
So we have a further delay till 31st Jan unless deal is ratified sooner. We also now have a general election on 12th Dec to see if someone can get a majority so that legislation can pass.If Labour Win then promise of renegotiation (delay) and probably referendum to confirm - they've also promised another Scottish independence referendum (23-28% in polls)
If Liberal Democrats win the revocation of Article 50 no need for referendum (16-20% in polls)
If Conservatives win then probably current deal or even no deal (34-38% in polls)
If hung Parliament then.....
On those figures, Libs, Lab, SNP and miscellaneous win, you stay in and Scotland goes out, and you get some good old Jeremy-style socialism. You probably don't get a hung parliament on Brexit because only the Conservatives seem to want it, so you stay in, lose Scotland, then everyone revolts against Jeremy, and then you need another election. How's that for a morbid future? Not much more can go wrong!However you have a campaigning season to come, and who knows? Maybe the country can give someone a majority. The problem seems to me that with so many parties and FPP style elections, at ties like this it may be difficult to get a majority.
Despite the polls and because of FPP and the swing seats, the betting companies have Conservatives odds on for overall majority. Unless the other parties have some tactical agreements to avoid splitting the anti-Conservative vote the betting may be correct.Then again May started with a bigger lead in the polls in 2017 and look how that ended up....
From what I gather, May also had a very unattractive campaign, so I don't think that is necessarily indicative. If Boris wants a majority, he has to put out attractive policies and campaign well, which is what representative democracy is all about. For us foreigners, this UK election will be remarkably interesting, and we hope you all get a good outcome. It is true that if the opposition is split into several competing parties, FPP does tend to lead to such disunity remaining in opposition.
Looks like bigger parties gain votes on account of smaller ones.. Hope the elections will enable solving the Brexit impasse.
Hung parliament still most likely in my view so more delay
Tell me about it. We are on the verge of third elections in a span of one year, because of that
I hope it is sorted too, for personal reasons. A company of which I am a Director has a significant trade opportunity, but we can't get anything done because we (and more importantly, the relevant people in the UK) don't know whether it is the UK or the EU that will set the rules. So business in the UK is sitting on its hands, quite understandably, I should add
OK, up until now I've been neutral on Brexit as it is a foreign matter. (I will confess to enjoying the circus.) Then I read this article:https://www.newsweek.com/calling-prop...
Great Britain, you have to get away from these people. They have lost their minds, and they will drown you in their insanity.
ECHR is not an EU institution and UK is not leaving it.
This time next week we will have result of the UK election, if there is a clear result. Don't think any of us could stand another hung Parliament. Polls - first past post in 650 constituenciesConservative 42% - increasing slowly - Deal exit 31st Jan
Labour 32% - increasing from Lib allegedly - New deal in 6 months new referendum
Liberals 15% - decreasing - remain
Brexit 8% - decreasing - exit with no deal
Closest seat in last election was one by 2 votes so % does not necessarily help just one more than next highest in most constituencies which have around 100,000 voters each
Despite a clear lead of the conservatives, the total picture looks very close, even allowing for deviation btw polls & results. Hope for you the elections will solve the deadlock somehow. We are stuck with a hung parliament for almost year, not pretty at all.Expecting my friends from London to visit during the Christmas holidays with additional first hand input afterwards..
Good luck to our friends in the UK tomorrow! Wonder whether a higher turnout is expected
As a certain Alphonse Capone advised, "Vote early, vote often!"More seriously, I hope you get a good outcome.
Looks like a Conservative majority is about to occur.https://edition.cnn.com/uk/live-news/...
So Brexit will be on.
Graeme wrote: "Looks like a Conservative majority is about to occur.https://edition.cnn.com/uk/live-news/...
So Brexit will be on."
Yes, and the SNP seems to have picked up from Labour's collapse in Scotland, so there will be more agitation for a second referendum. Life will not be easy for Boris, but it should be easier than it was. It looks as if Corbyn should have listened a little more to some of the voters in the electorates in the North of England.
The Tories are looking at a strong majority.
Congrats to those in UK, who celebrate, and best of luck with the expected resolution of the political imbroglio!
Huge win for Conservatives, and SNP but SNP need Conservatives to pass legislation to allow 2nd referendum - more issue. Just hear Boris speaking - lots of One Nation. Not heard Corbyn but apparently going to stay on for months.Sorry Jo Swinson lost especially to SNP - but awful campaign from Lib Dems and no tactical voting rubbish in fact reverse tactical voting in Labour seats to 'Get Brexit Done"
However, it was not all about Brexit. Total rejection of Labour's manifesto and unrealistic spending pledges.
Perhaps we can close this thread now... Oh no just trade and all that technical stuff to resolve
The Brexit deal will be interesting.My understanding is that it will need to be established in 2020, as there is a grace period after Brexit actually happens before shared regulations switch off.
Timetable:17th Dec Parliament reconvenes
20th Dec Expected first stage of Brexit Deal Bill (Divorce Deal)
31st Jan - current deal deadline or no-deal deadline requires UK Parliament approval and EU Parliament approval
31st Dec 2020 if deal passed above, it's the deadline for trade deal unless mutually extended. Alignment which was originally for just under 2 years (March 2019 to Dec 2020). We would remain mutually aligned till then.
For the doubters
1. EU stated UK would vote to remain in 2016
2. Labour would win election in 2015, 2017 and 2019
3. EU told UK deal could not be renegotiated - it was in 3 months
4. Doubters state that trade deal can not be done in time - Boris claims it can. On evidence of1-3 who do we believe hence 2019 vote.
That's not a support of Boris its a statement of what has happened. That's despite political establishment and most of media claiming the contrary. It was entertaining watching the shock of London biased media (all Remain) as results came in. Then all claiming that privately they knew Labour would lose but completely failed to report it just odd hint quickly corrected by election reporting bias rules. All claiming even on Wednesday that it was narrow and too close to call and likely hung Parliament.
I wonder if anyone will claim Putin made it happen?
World, Writing, Wealth
Books mentioned in this topic
Thirty Years from Now (other topics)Against the Double Blackmail: Refugees, Terror and Other Troubles with the Neighbours (other topics)
Authors mentioned in this topic
Nikolai Gogol (other topics)Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (other topics)
George Santayana (other topics)
The United Kingdom may not survive united this overdramatized hurdle (hopefully avoiding a Yugoslavia scenario).
Won't be surprised if on 4.9.49 they will still debate a new and fresh extension till 1.1.(20 or 30?)50