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Brexit - ciao Britain? She doesn't go anywhere
The problem with this debate is that each side has its share of fanatics, who refuse to see what the other side sees, and probably cannot be persuaded by any argument. My view is that either way can be made to work, and what happens depends on how hard everyone works at whatever outcome is reached. Scotland etc should realise that 39 B that stops going to the EU could do quite a bit for them.
Britain voted to leave so we already had a referendum. We dont need another and to ignore it is to show contempt to the voters. We have a chance to see what we are capable of achieving without the EU telling us what to do. Too much negativity and indecision has weakened us. Lets put the pride and talent back into our country.
Repeating the referendum would create a bad precedent too. Have a sniff of one, and Sturgeon will be demanding another for Scotland. I think Boris will be quite firm on this.
Ian wrote: "Repeating the referendum would create a bad precedent too. Have a sniff of one, and Sturgeon will be demanding another for Scotland. I think Boris will be quite firm on this."She already is. She also campaigned for Remain and wants another referendum on that too - current SNP policy
Iain wrote: "Anne wrote: "Britain voted to leave so we already had a referendum. We don't need another and to ignore it is to show contempt to the voters. We have a chance to see what we are capable of achieving..."The Commonwealth was treated appallingly when UK joined EEC - i.e. it lost all the trade deals with UK on promise of trade deals with then EEC that never happened. In particular look at Spanish banana industry after UK joined compared to Caribbean industry.
Hi Philip, my family lived through that. The collapse of markets occurred at the same time as OPEC formed and oil quadrupled in cost.Farming in Australia contracted by 50% over a decade. Farmers were shooting their own cattle because it waz cheaper than selling them.
Heartbreaking stuff.
EU has again said it will not reopen withdrawal agreement although it has been rejected 3 times by UK parliament.UK parliament has also voted against blocking a no-deal exit - currently set for 31st Oct
To have a change of government without an election would require no confidence vote and the Queen inviting someone else to form a government (the cabinet) - as she invited Boris Johnson to do as the new leader of the largest party.
To force an election this process must fail. e.g. Boris loses no confidence, cannot form a majority, and then Corbyn will be asked or potentially some other grouping (e.g. Remainers outside political party lines) - would have to demonstrate they have a majority and can win a vote of no confidence. All this within 14 days of original no confidence vote otherwise Parliament is dissolved for a new General election at least 6 week process. After that the leader of the largest party etc....
Parliament currently in recess. Back in September for a couple of weeks before annual party conference recess then back in October.
If nothing happens in Sep to vote for a deal (current or new) or block no deal (needs EU agreement too) then UK leaves on 31st with no deal. If Parliament is out due to general election then government is in place until result of general election.
Graeme wrote: "Hi Philip, my family lived through that. The collapse of markets occurred at the same time as OPEC formed and oil quadrupled in cost.Farming in Australia contracted by 50% over a decade. Farmers ..."
We should have stopped it then - supposed to have started as a free trade area but has actually been a trade cartel unless you are a memeber
Philip wrote: "EU has again said it will not reopen withdrawal agreement although it has been rejected 3 times by UK parliament.UK parliament has also voted against blocking a no-deal exit - currently set for 3..."
That's clear. It will most likely be a no deal brexit.
Philip wrote: "Ian wrote: "Repeating the referendum would create a bad precedent too. Have a sniff of one, and Sturgeon will be demanding another for Scotland. I think Boris will be quite firm on this."She alre..."
Yes, but if the precedent is set with Brexit that referenda are one-off affairs, her position should be weaker.
I also think it will be a no-deal Brexit, largely by default because nobody can organize anything else in time. Previously, there were, I think, about six possibilities put to Parliament, and somehow all were voted down, so it seems impossible to get anything agreed on in Parliament to cancel out the exit notice, which is the default position.
I have a suspicion that the Brexit vote surprised and wrong-footed the political establishment in the UK and in the EU.Hence a lack of real world preparation for a Brexit.
Then hurry to buy Mercedeses & Bentleys respectively, depending on which side of the English channel/la Manche you are at, before they add the custom duty to their retail price!
As I said elsewhere, Boris' best strategy at the moment is to announce that Britain will not initiate any tariffs on EU goods unless the EU puts them on UK goods. Because it is so sensible, my gut feeling is he won't. The UK has nothing against a free trade deal, so they should do nothing along those lines until Brussels does. This will tend to make the remain vote have to find something other than trade to whinge about.
Iain wrote: "Scotland is turning into North Korea . . . . How so? Is it developing nukes, while maybe deceiving Trump & Pompeo? -:)
Iain wrote: "Philip wrote: "Iain wrote: "Anne wrote: "Britain voted to leave so we already had a referendum. We don't need another and to ignore it is to show contempt to the voters. We have a chance to see wha..."On trade -The whole world as far as I am concerned not just Commonwealth but hopefully they would be a good start. US seems keen but don't like some of the proposed changes which we would have to agree to - don't want bleached chicken
On immigration - can't see it but sensible points based system with no discrimination
Don't forget trade with the EU will not cease. There are a number of other countries that trade with the EU and are not in it, and deals that are already in place will continue unless politicians mess them up. Keep your politicians under control! Let them know that stupidity leads to the political wilderness.
Iain wrote: "gang mentality..."Judging by Irvine Welsh books it wasn't alien to the place 20-30 years ago too
Iain wrote: "Nik could you smuggle me into the Ukraine? Preferably a comfy spot by the coast in Odessa :)..."Yes, I can (c) B. Obama -:)
Yeah, Odessa is super hot in all senses during the summer and you can come from the front gate and be welcomed by the vibe. Used to go down there on occasional weekends from Kiev to hang out in Arcadia, although it's maybe getting too commercialized similarly to how ppl complain about Thai islands. And it's not something unachievable either - with 50-70K USD you can have a nice apartment right near the seaside and even rent it out on daily basis while away.
Remember hosting there a motley crue of dudes from LA, Saint Petersburg, Georgia (Caucasus) & Israel a few years ago. Kinda memorable
That was a onetime event that a few friends with their friends could come simultaneously .. Don't think it will be repeated.I hope I'll be able to go though
Last trip been there on biz and regretted not being able to stay for the weekend
Nope, but I hope to do it one day and even have a couple of friends that would like to join
Looking forward to & would be glad to reciprocate-:)
That'd be a great starter!As a side note, somehow all the threads lead to drinking. Sounds like as legit an answer to the meaning of life, universe & everything as 42-:)
Nik wrote: "That'd be a great starter!As a side note, somehow all the threads lead to drinking. Sounds like as legit an answer to the meaning of life, universe & everything as 42-:)"
Reality is an illusion caused by lack of alcohol - going to need plenty for Brexit - real or illusion - it's all a dream like Dallas. Can we reset to - pick date
Philip wrote: "Reality is an illusion caused by lack of alcohol..."-:) An excellent quote!
Here too Air Force, especially fighter pilots are considered blue blood.
Iain wrote: "Really? All of them? ...."In general, as a caste, however individuals may convey a different impression
https://phenweb.wordpress.com/2019/08...after news of Prorogation and ridiculous talk of lack of precedent.
Iain wrote: "Philip wrote: "https://phenweb.wordpress.com/2019/08...after news of Prorogation and ridiculous talk of lack of precedent."
I like how it ends on: "but let’s not..."
I do not necessarily buy the all media reporting is biased viewpoint, but the reporting from some elements of UK press seems to have lost all semblance of impartiality. Opinion i.e. the story, is dressed up as fact. I can remember a time when journalists reported facts and would call out politicians opinions now they seem to speak there opinion first and accuse the politician of not knowing fact.
e.g. "Brexit will be a disaster what are you going to do about it?" to a politician. This is opinion (disaster) dressed as fact (will). Their response is then edited and re-quoted with the original statement as a new fact but often out of context i.e. missing a preamble or caveat.
In reality like the weather forecast Brexit may be good or bad. It has not happened yet therefore we don't know. There is no precedent fro leaving the EU. There are lots of precedents for leaving organisations and trade agreements. Some went well others did not.
When it comes to financial forecasts of doom and gloom, I refer you to weather forecasts and the track record of forecasters from IMF, World bank and the various Treasury functions around the world. i.e. they are a forecast and you can gamble accordingly. If you had bet on Forecasts since 2001 you would be destitute. Another blog coming on.
Forecasts cannot be right all the time because they have to guess responses. When Brexit occurs, what happens next will depend to some extent on how people react to it. I expect there will be some initial reverse because sales to Europe will decline, and it takes time to establish new markets, and domestically it takes time to adjust to new situations, but if the people make an effort, I believe they will make it work OK. But it will take effort.
For what it is worth, Iain, I saw a TV clip of a professor of economics from one of the Ivy League universities argue that with all the quantitative easing money and low interest rates sloshing about, because it did not go into new investment but boosted the price of existing stock and other assets, a major correction is due.
With Brexit, we might witness quite an effort to pull the island(s) much closer to the N. America, even if not literally. Btw England and Greenland, the former will be a priority
I have no idea which countries will be better to be in if a crash comes. Probably Russia, because it has an extremely low debt. So, in my case I shall stay where I am and hope for the best
Iain wrote: "They might be saturated in complacency ..."Australia is complacent.
There is one massive economic landmine which I'm concerned will be set off by Brexit. For a few years now I have been following the work of Chris Powell, who has demonstrated that the gold market is an absolute sham.https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspe...
It appears (to me) that a big enough hit could undermine both fiat and securities backed currencies, sending the world currency markets into a rock bottom crash.
The most likely cause, to me, is still overpriced assets. Sooner or later, some major fund manager or huge investor will decide the music has stopped playing and unload, taking his profits. Then the reef fish panic, and, er, the bottom is coming!
The music is already stuttering. I think we'll see a major market downturn this year.
I fear Graeme is closer to the probable time frame than anyone would like. October is a historically bad month for Wall Street, and many are projecting for this October to end in a shit show.
31st October 23:00 UK time is currently Brexit day by law. But it's subject to Parliament and EU. i.e. Parliament could vote to block leave without a deal (only deal on the table is the one rejected by Parliament 3 times) but EU still has to agree to any extension. i.e. the can is kicked down the road again.UK Parliament can vote to overturn the Article 50 legislation i.e. stay in EU. This they can do unilaterally. What that might cause in UK is unclear.
EU could agree and negotiate a new deal (however unlikely) in the remaining time which Parliament could approve (current official Government policy). When Parliament is Prorogued, Government continues but Ministers do not have to come to Parliament to argue and debate i.e. they may have more time to negotiate amendments to the deal if the EU is willing (they appear not to be)
Of bigger threat to the market is the Honk Kong protests and the ongoing trade war which appears to be starting to bite. Remember the US/China dispute is not the only trade war instigated by the US administration. Tariffs were also applied to Europe and Canada.
So stock market crash - I think so - although company profits still look OK. That should be the main reason for investing in a stock or not i.e. the dividend or profit share not the speculation that the share price or group of share prices will go up (or down) on any given day. The stock markets of the world lost any common sense years ago. Dot Com boom, Financial Crash 1929 anyone....
Of course because savings interest rates are so low including Government bonds, investors want a return. They get it at the moment by gambling on a share price. If there is a massive correction I'll be waiting in the wings to pick up some bargains - I hope.
Philip wrote: "31st October 23:00 UK time is currently Brexit day by law. But it's subject to Parliament and EU. i.e. Parliament could vote to block leave without a deal (only deal on the table is the one rejecte..."What happens if Parliament votes not to leave without a deal, but there is no deal they will vote for, and they have not voted not to leave? It seems to me the EU are not bound by the UK parliamentary shennanigans, and may say, you have left - now go.
I understand that France has developed means for a seamless border at Calais, with only requiring trucks with the correct paperwork to slow down and get it machine-read. The same should work for Ireland, but anyway, it seems to me that France is reasonably convinced the UK is going, and my guess is the EU is sick of these goings on - or rather non-goings on.
As for a stock market crash, company profits are irrelevant; it is when enough decide that there is no further capital gain left to gather i.e., this lot of music has stopped, so they take their profits. The price starts to fall, so the masses sell, to keep what profits they can, at which point all those who purchased on borrowed money have to sell, the shorters feast, and then suddenly too many earnings disappear off into debt repayment the economy stalls.
Actually, low interest rates are not helping. All the investors, e.g. the aged, retired, etc, who live off such income, have far less to spend so they don't, and sales decline. Declining sales means lower profits, more unemployment, less sales, etc, and the cash feeds on itself.
Yes, sound companies with low debt exposure will continue, and there will be real bargains if you have the cash.
Ian wrote: "Philip wrote: "31st October 23:00 UK time is currently Brexit day by law. But it's subject to Parliament and EU. i.e. Parliament could vote to block leave without a deal (only deal on the table is ..."If Parliament votes to block no deal but does not vote to accept the deal that is on the table, (EU has again said no changes), then the default is we leave on 31st. The UK could ask for an extension but that's the UK government or whichever UK government is in power (if that has changed). The remaining EU 27 have to individually agree to a further extension, which they have already done twice. Firstly, from 29th March through to May to give previous PM a chance to get the deal through Parliament (failed). This would have prevented UK taking part in new EU Parliament. The second one was to allow new UK Government and PM to attempt alternate plan. i.e. what current PM is allegedly trying to do and the EU is rejecting
The preparations in Calais are interesting because I have frequently heard the Calais authorities state they are completely prepared for any outcome , yet the Media reports impending disaster. If France can be prepared it beggars belief that Ireland and NI (with a land border and common language (but not currency or tax) could not use same system. In fact, goods going to Germany from outside EU are cleared in Rotterdam based on declarations in Germany. Another model that could work for NI. The backstop legally separates NI from the rest of UK. This is of course the avowed aim of the Irish Government and several of the NI parties. The policy has nothing to do with EU membership.
My guess is the EU would accept changes to the Irish backstop if something like what the French have stated they will use was offered, AND if they think that the UK won't fold and return to the EU. The problem is that the current parliamentary turmoil makes any prediction what the UK will do little better than predicting lottery numbers (of which I have had experience at failing to do). But I am sure that a workable scheme could be put in place with modern technology - the predictions of doom are ridiculous unless total ineptitude makes it so.
Another twist today. Rebels allegedly threatened with deselection if they vote against government. Press reports as not a single rebel was able to state that they had a message from the whips office or party leadership to say they would be. (Fake news again?) This only takes affect if there is a vote of confidence and they vote against government, or no government can be formed in 14 days. But Queen has already agreed to Prorogate parliament at end of this week. No idea what happens then but I suspect that will be that, as PM will still be PM until Parliament returns. That is if then 2/3rds of MPs vote for general election. It appears that the Government is going to state that a vote to block a no deal in law would be a vote of confidence. Labour has called for a general election knowing they won't get one but now might in which case they may lose more seats than the governing party. Be careful what you wish for.The wider remain/anti-no-deal alliance may now lose support because of the election threat or might not. They have plans to take control of the Parliamentary agenda called the order paper in order to put forward their no-deal legislation or require government to request EU further extension which as discussed above EU could reject. The request from the Government could be full of caveats or requirements that EU could not accept. i.e. enforce no-deal because EU will not accept extension conditions. Therefore any legislation may have to bind government to approach and get through all parliamentary stages. The more complex it is the less likely its is to get through.
If a no confidence is lost and no alternate government can be formed and then 2/3rds vote for general election then the date of general election is up to government i.e. they can delay until after 31st Oct thus getting UK out with no prevention because that is the law currently. At the moment Parliament would return on 17th Oct after Prorogation.
Various activities in courts going on also seeking various legal objections all of which will probably fail because, The Queen is the courts and therefore her decision on advice from Ministers is the decision. Parliament can overturn courts and/or ignore them as Parliament is sovereign on behalf of the sovereign. They are arguing the advice to the Queen is illegal or wrong but as that advice is private unless in state briefing paper then not sure how that goes.
The British Constitution is not very clear except when it wants to be. When politicians claim precedent or lack of one they need to be historians and not just of last week/month/year/decade/century's news.
Whether or not it is fake news, it is a sound procedure. MPs have to realize they did not get there because of their own personal brilliance; the bulk of the people vote for the party, so if you vote against the party on such an important matter you should no longer be in it. It is on thing to cross the floor on a given motion, but a vote of no confidence in your party's right to form a government is entirely different. My view is it would be impossible to argue that giving Johnson time to try to negotiate a deal with the EU within the current time frame would be illegal -what else is the government supposed to do? Further, they can hardly argue that Johnson is burying a perfectly respectable deal because they have voted against just about every possibility. Also, I can't see how in law they can argue they are sovereign on behalf of the sovereign when they are opposing a perfectly legal option taken by the sovereign. It is an interesting mess.
If the UK runs anything like NZ, I don't think you could force an election between now and Oct 31 anyway, because by the time they get around to it, by convention the Prime Minister, in calling the election, has to leave time for the various parties to make candidate selections. You d not want just any old Joe (although sometimes selection here makes one wonder) and you have to give the new candidates time to raise funds and campaign. True, raising funds can start any time, but campaigning cannot until you know the candidate. If nothing else, posters need a picture of the candidate and you can't [print them off until you know who it will be. And in fairness, you want to give each candidate time to make his impression. And they can hardly complain that giving candidates time to run a campaign is antidemocratic.
Interestingly, in amidst all this chaos, according to our news this morning, sterling rose 1%. Make what you will of that. (down 1% tomorrow??)
Ian wrote: "Whether or not it is fake news, it is a sound procedure. MPs have to realize they did not get there because of their own personal brilliance; the bulk of the people vote for the party, so if you vo..."Started the UK day at 1.2182 to US $. At 15:45 it was 1.2039 (BBC Headline 'pound plunges") and at 22:15 it was 1.2069 no BBC headline
General Election speculation rife with PM stating he will ask MPs to vote for one if No Deal is blocked. Anti-no-deal grouping planning to force Government to requests delay until 31st Jan unless there is a deal which Parliament approves. ...and on the farce goes
You got to be fast to get the best currency conversion :-)I can just see that Macron would be delighted to spend Christmas watching the farce continue. I am not sure the group can force the government to do anything if a general election is called. Here, Parliament is suspended awaiting the outcome of the election, with the cabinet in a caretaker role.
It appears the group has thought it has made a coup - thanks to at least 20 tories crossing the floor, the opposition "controls" parliament and is going to pass a law blocking a "no-deal Brexit". Does that mean they are going to vote for May's deal? There is no other deal n the table and they have effectively torpedoed any chance of Johnson getting a deal. They also want to secure an extension, which raises the question, what did they do with the last extension? I would expect the EU to ask that. Perhaps they will remain, have an election, and then the next government could restart the whole procedure. Fancy, another two years of this!We also have the rather odd position that Johnson needs a 2/3 vote to hold an early election, but he has not got a majority either, and neither does anyone else. I know Corbyn wants to be Prime Minister, but are those Tory rebels really going to vote for Corbyn? In any case, there are a number of others who would presumably block off Corbyn. So we have the position that because of fixed positions and an inability to compromise, there might be no government.
This seems to be where the UK parliament differs from ours. Here, if the government loses confidence, unless another can be formed within a reasonable time, there is an election.
Could this process last decades.No Brexit.
No deal.
The UK remains in
Depends on the next election, which could be very uncivilised. If the remainers win the next election, yes, but if the predominant return is for Brexit, no. Further, they have to vote for remain before Oct 31, I think, because the withdrawal is the default. Then they would have to reapply
World, Writing, Wealth
Books mentioned in this topic
Thirty Years from Now (other topics)Against the Double Blackmail: Refugees, Terror and Other Troubles with the Neighbours (other topics)
Authors mentioned in this topic
Nikolai Gogol (other topics)Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (other topics)
George Santayana (other topics)
REF: https://www.statista.com/chart/18794/...
7B Euros in 2017."
The argument about how much is a much discussed number. The contribution is offset by EU spending in UK of which Northern Ireland and Scotland benefit the most i.e. EU funds stuff that Westminster has not (might be a good indication of why they both voted to stay in)
Nevertheless there is a small matter of a 39 Billion divorce settlement in the withdrawal agreement which also disappears with no deal. The 39 Billion is the UK's contribution to EU organisations and projects it has proposed to remain part of after leaving i.e. scientific projects (Some spending in UK although EU has already stopped many UK allocations and moved some EU institutions out) various trans Europe agencies and specific UK commitments that went beyond EU budget cycle.
Of course EU is now paying for UK MEPs and allocating space etc in EU Parliament. They have also had to delay allocation of roles amongst 27 nations whilst the 28th remains part of EU even down to seats in the Parliament. This is all because the UK did not leave in march and therefore had to take part in EU elections where the largest group of UK MEPs is now from the Brexit Party.
If I had written this as a plot I could not have made it up and I can see the unrealistic fantasy reviews.
I'll join you in beer and popcorn Ian. Unfortunately i live here and we'll have to deal with outcome regardless of which side of argument I'm on. For some reason Remainers think that having another vote and winning it will make things OK again