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Nate Silver

“The most basic tenet of chaos theory is that a small change in initial conditions—a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil—can produce a large and unexpected divergence in outcomes—a tornado in Texas. This does not mean that the behavior of the system is random, as the term “chaos” might seem to imply. Nor”

Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
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The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't by Nate Silver
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