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“You see the shadow. Snap! You are frightened—and running. That’s the “availability heuristic,” one of many System 1 operations—or heuristics—discovered by Daniel Kahneman, his collaborator Amos Tversky, and other researchers in the fast-growing science of judgment and choice.”

Philip Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock
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