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Annie Duke

“Stuff you knew before the decision: The sum of your knowledge and beliefs at the time of the decision. For our purposes here, specifically the stuff you brought to bear on making the decision. Stuff you know after the outcome: This includes all the stuff you knew before the decision and new stuff that you learned after making the decision. For our purposes here, we’re focusing on new information that revealed itself after the future unfolded however it did. Using a Knowledge Tracker reduces hindsight bias by clarifying what you did and didn’t know at the time of the decision. Detailing what you knew and when you knew it helps prevent stuff that revealed itself after the fact from reflexively creeping into the before-the-fact box.”

Annie Duke, How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices
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How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices by Annie Duke
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