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“When a debate like “Keynesians versus Austerians” emerges, key figures could work together—with the help of trusted third parties—to identify what they disagree about and which forecasts would meaningfully test those disagreements. The key is precision. It’s one thing for Austerians to say a policy will cause inflation and Keynesians to say it won’t. But how much inflation? Measured by what benchmark? Over what time period? The result must be a forecast question that reduces ambiguity to an absolute minimum.”

Philip E. Tetlock, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock
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