“Tell someone they’re exceptionally good at something and they may start taking their superiority for granted. Surround them with others who are similarly accomplished, tell them how special they are, and egos may swell even more. Rather than spur a superforecaster to take his game to the next level, it might make him so sure of himself that he is tempted to think his judgment must be right because it is his judgment. This is a familiar paradox: success can lead to acclaim that can undermine the habits of mind that produced the success.”