Patrick Brown
Patrick Brown asked:

What are the three most vital takeaways from this book and why are they so important?

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Steve Your mind has two different systems. One works quickly and intuitively, and is often wrong. The other is analytic, and can get the right answer, but is very lazy and loves to take shortcuts, and hand things back off to the quick system.

This book details LOTS of fallacies and traps that these two different systems, working against each other sometimes, can even cause professional statisticians to react incorrectly to a situtation.

This book gives you 3 or 4 statements at the end of every chapter to help to realize the ways you could apply this knowledge you have learned like "When we survey the reaction to these products, let's make sure we don't focus exclusively on the average. We should consider the entire range of normal reactions."

This is not a typical "business" book that leds itself to the "top 3" synopsis. The dedicated student will be rewarded by reading the whole thing.
Yulia Vorotyntseva 1. In fostering learning, rewards work better than punishments, but due to the regression to the mean, we have an illusion of the reverse effect. -- very important for me, since I have to deal with teaching.

2. Risk-aversion (and loss aversion) leads to bad decision-making, and you should get rid of it (I realized it before, when found that just by switching to high-deductible policy and and making a health savings account instead, I can save a lot of money without any threat to my health)

3. The importance of metrics: to avoid framing effect, it is good to have some fixed metric in mind (say, in a year on average it will make me X bucks poorer/richer), and transfer the input parameters into this system when making a decision.
Slaim96 IMO there are more than three things.
From memory:
1- The halo effect
2- Priming effect
3- Sunk cost Fallacy
4- Anchoring effect

This book is so amazing and is a definite re-read for me
Victor Parkkila I've written a summary of the book here:https://iareads.wordpress.com/2018/02...
Cindy We each have accumulated our own personal, intuitive brain that functions all the time and tends to guide most of our actions and decisions. But our intuitive brain (system 1) is highly prone to a variety of biases and flaws.

Our more logical brain (system 2) seldom activates at all, and will even activate less frequently if we become tired (after too much logical brain effort). Without it's more cautious, devil's advocate analysis, we often make silly mistakes or even serious errors of judgement.

Trying to overcome our intuitive brain's flow (e.g. to overcome our natural bias), leaves us feeling uncomfortable and uncertain - even years after such an experience. We feel more certain and more at ease if we just go with our intuitive flow. But our intuitive brain is very flawed, so when we give it free reign we often do a lot more harm (especially to others we may have judged unfairly due to our bias).

The book implies there is no simple answer to this inherent flaw in our thinking. I'm guessing the fact that our intuitive brain can learn and acquire skill/expertise means there are ways to overcome at least some of the flaws. But it takes a great deal of effort, and, as the book points out, there may be some situations where it is much better to rely on computations/algorithms devised based on scientific evidence rather than attempt to overcome our flawed intuitive thinking.
Tom Gosh, where to start? Here are some from memory, most without the proper terminology from the book.

1) Just how much System #1 affects our thinking and decisions, without our knowledge, without our asking it to, without us wanting it to. We need to deal with the fact that a random number spun before answering a question *will* affect our answer to that question, no matter how stupid that seems. Understanding system #1, and training system #2 to be on its guard, is the most important takeaway.

2) How much loss aversion, and its opposite, desire of certainty, affect our decisions. I am not that sure its a bad thing - I know I will pay a premium for certainty, but it it worth it. Tying it to regret and blame is useful info.

3) Our tendency to overestimate the reliability of our decisions because we do not regress to the mean. Our thoughts and decisions may be in the right direction, but we will be overconfident in them unless we think "slow" on them.

4) Along the same lines, certain things - financial predictions, political pundits, lots of other things - are incapable of accurate prediction, by their nature (too much is unknown or hasn't happened yet). That may be obvious to some; what is most useful is realizing the true danger is the false *confidence of the predictors*.

5) And maybe just because I read this part recently: the differences between single decisions and linked decisions: how we can end up changing our mind on a decision once we made it, and how a gamble may be undesirable once, but desirable if repeated multiple times.

There are many, many more. Read it, then make the decision to read it again.
Mhis Rita That may be obvious to some; what is most useful is realizing the true danger. #1 affects our thinking and decisions, without our knowledge, without our asking it to, without us wanting it to. We need to deal with the fact that a random number spun before answering a question *will* affect our answer to that question, no matter how stupid that seems. Understanding system #1, and training system #2 to be on its guard, is the most important takeaway. Npower Recruitment
Isreal Agabs I have read this book twice and I must say there are so much to pick from in this amazing write up. https://careersafrik.com for all your career tips and advice
SANSKAR JAIN 1. we must accept the fact that there is inherent baises in our judgments and behaviors. the 1st step to overcome them is to be aware of them and most of the time we can't be aware of them. After we realized that there are systematic errors in the choices or the decisions we are taking, the next step would be to minimize those errors gradually - it is hard to accept the errors and correct them as it is incompatible with how human mind functions. our mind isn't evolved to be rational and critical while making decisions. therefore any attempt to criticise our own long held believes about anything whatsoever results in us feeling restless, less confident, uncomfortable and less optimistic. whenever we reject our intuitive or impulsive response to anything and instead take a rational ,self criticising approach to deal with any situation, we will be less confident and more pessimistic about the outcome even though by making a rational choice, we have increased the probability of a favourable outcome. this is because, naturally, humans are terrible statisticians even though we think we aren't. So, don't let your feelings be in charge of your decisions - you can't convince your mind that your decision is indeed the best possible choice you can make based on the information available to you but that doesn't indicate inferiority in your decision but instead reflects your mind's inability to accept rational choices being more profitable and intuitive ones being more risky & more likely to be result in failure (even though you will be more confident of such choices).

2. It is foolishness to criticise every single intuitive idea that comes in our mind. it is because statistically, most of the time our intuition is correct. but we must know when it is necessary to criticise it. generally, whenever we feel overconfident about anything or overly happy and satisfied then probability of you making an irrational decision increases. thus, it is advisable to be aware of your surrounding as well as your behaviour so that baises can be detected and serviced.

3. Human mind is obsessed with stories. it wants a logical reason for everything. it likes consistency and coherency in the information. it isn't capable of differentiating illusion from reality & truth from lie. It is very receptive of meaning full simple logical stories. it greatly underestimates the role of luck & randomness in determining outcome of any decision. it becomes very uncomfortable while dealing with "what if" scenarios. it tries to find patterns in random events. it tries to formulate convincing stories to explain randomness giving birth to conspiracy theories. we must fully acknowledge the presence of meaninglessness in all the things happening around us and the role of luck in deciding how the past has unfolded and how future will unfold. therefore, blaming somebody or an event for something terrible, is a bad idea as if we have ignored the factor of luck here. Also, praising someone for her extraordinary performance and jumping to conclusion about their talent is also an irrational decision as luck is once again ignored here.
Sergio Mabres It was enlightening to see clearly the manipulation of our mind by publicist and the press
Danny In fostering learning, rewards work better than punishments, but due to the regression to the mean, we have an illusion of the reverse effect. -- very important for me, since I have to deal with teaching.

2. Risk-aversion (and loss aversion) leads to bad decision-making, and you should get rid of it (I realized it before, when found that just by switching to high-deductible policy and and making a health savings account instead, I can save a lot of money without any threat to my health)

3. The importance of metrics: to avoid framing effect, it is good to have some fixed metric in mind (say, in a year on average it will make me X bucks poorer/richer), and transfer the input parameters into this system when making a decision. Npower Build
Fgy This book is so amazing and is a definite re-read for me
read lovely biker quotes
Kathryn Atkins 1.) By questioning how we make decisions and how we think about seemingly ordinary things, this book changes the very underpinnings of the approach to my days and how I view the world. I'm grappling with regression to the mean at the moment, and am having trouble wrapping my head around the concept. I do not think I am alone in this. 2.) I am definitely a System 2 person. I am married to a System 1 person. It would be interesting to see how often that happens!
3.) If you want a "makes-your-hair-hurt" tome as it pushes the neural synapses, this is the book for you. It is not an easy book. As I view our newsfeeds, I wonder if "they" know our weaknesses in thinking. For we are lazier than I thought before reading this book.
Michael Perkins the book is chock full of practical wisdom based on sophisticated research. I have read it three times. This NYT Magazine article gives a nice sample of what to expect...

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/23/mag...
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