Decisive: How to Make Better Choices in Life and Work

by Chip Heath

“Any time in life you’re tempted to think, ‘Should I do this OR that?’ instead, ask yourself, ‘Is there a way I can do this AND that?’ It’s surprisingly frequent that it’s feasible to do both things.

We ask ourselves, “Should I buy a new car or not?” instead of “What’s the best way I could spend some money to make my family better off?

When people have the opportunity to collect information from the world, they are more likely to select information that supports their preexisting attitudes, beliefs, and actions.

“Confirmation bias is probably the single biggest problem in business, because even the most sophisticated people get it wrong. People go out and they’re collecting the data, and they don’t realize they’re cooking the books.

I looked out the window at the Ferris Wheel of the Great America amusement park revolving in the distance, then I turned back to Gordon and I asked, “If we got kicked out and the board brought in a new CEO, what do you think he would do?” Gordon answered without hesitation, “He would get us out of memories.”

I stared at him, numb, then said, “Why shouldn’t you and I walk out the door, come back in, and do it ourselves?

The switch in perspectives—“What would our successors do?”—helped Moore and Grove see the big picture clearly.

Grove’s decision wasn’t difficult because he lacked options or information; it was difficult because he felt conflicted. The short-term pressures and political wrangling clouded his mind and obscured the long-term need to exit the memory business.

This brings us to the third villain of decision making: short-term emotion.

Still, though, to compare options rigorously is not the same as seeing the bigger picture.

A study showed that when doctors reckoned themselves “completely certain” about a diagnosis, they were wrong 40% of the time.

“AND not OR

Andy Grove overcame short-term emotions by asking, “What would my successor do?”

We can’t deactivate our biases, but these people show us that we can counteract them with the right discipline.

At its core, the WRAP model urges you to switch from “auto spotlight” to manual spotlight. Rather than make choices based on what naturally comes to your attention—visceral emotions, self-serving information, overconfident predictions, and so on—you deliberately illuminate more strategic spots. You sweep your light over a broader landscape and point it into hidden corners.

The psychologist Roy Baumeister draws an analogy to driving—in our cars, we may spend 95% of our time going straight, but it’s the turns that determine where we end up.

A KPMG study of 700 mergers and acquisitions (mentioned previously in the introduction) found that 83% of them did not boost shareholder value. This suggests a good rule of thumb for business leaders: If you’ve spent weeks or months analyzing a potential target, and what you’ve learned has convinced you to make an offer, don’t. Five times out of six you’ll be right!