Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

by Annie Duke

Incorporating percentages or ranges of alternatives into the expression of our beliefs means that our personal narrative no longer hinges on whether we were wrong or right but on how well we incorporate new information to adjust the estimate of how accurate our beliefs are.

Blaming the bulk of our bad outcomes on luck means we miss opportunities to examine our decisions to see where we can do better.

Happiness (however we individually define it) is not best measured by looking at the ticker, zooming in and magnifying moment-by-moment or day-by-day movements. We would be better off thinking about our happiness as a long-term stock holding. We would do well to view our happiness through a wide-angle lens, striving for a long, sustaining upward trend in our happiness stock,