Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

by Annie Duke

Thinking in bets starts with recognizing that there are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck. Learning to recognize the difference between the two is what thinking in bets is all about.

It turns out the better you are with numbers, the better you are at spinning those numbers to conform to and support your beliefs.

We can work to get the reward of feeling good about ourselves from being a good credit-giver, a good mistake-admitter, a good finder-of-mistakes-in-good-outcomes, a good learner, and (as a result) a good decision-maker.