Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

by Annie Duke

What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process, and that process must include an attempt to accurately represent our own state of knowledge. That state of knowledge, in turn, is some variation of “I’m not sure.”

What good poker players and good decision-makers have in common is their comfort with the world being an uncertain and unpredictable place.