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March 5 - June 9, 2019
The full question is: Can we provide these things without wrecking much else?
The full question is: Can we provide these things without wrecking much else?
the fundamental question that will face my children’s generation: how to survive the next century without a wrenching global catastrophe.
the fundamental question that will face my children’s generation: how to survive the next century without a wrenching global catastrophe.
If our society has achieved something worth preserving what can we do to sustain it. As Einstein famously answered when asked how the next world war would be fought: "I don't know but the one after that will be fought with sticks and stones."
The two people were William Vogt and Norman Borlaug.
The two people were William Vogt and Norman Borlaug.
Vogt, born in 1902, laid out the basic ideas for the modern environmental movement.
Vogt, born in 1902, laid out the basic ideas for the modern environmental movement.
“apocalyptic environmentalism”—the belief that unless humankind drastically reduces consumption its growing numbers and appetite will overwhelm the planet’s ecosystems.
“apocalyptic environmentalism”—the belief that unless humankind drastically reduces consumption its growing numbers and appetite will overwhelm the planet’s ecosystems.
Going beyond sustainability.
Borlaug, born twelve years later, has become the emblem of what has been termed “techno-optimism” or “cornucopianism”—the view that science and technology, properly applied, can help us produce our way out of our predicament.
Borlaug, born twelve years later, has become the emblem of what has been termed “techno-optimism” or “cornucopianism”—the view that science and technology, properly applied, can help us produce our way out of our predicament.
Humanity rises to challenges. But then there was the dark ages.
conversations about the environment have increasingly become dialogues of the deaf. Which might be all right, if we weren’t discussing the fate of our children.
conversations about the environment have increasingly become dialogues of the deaf. Which might be all right, if we weren’t discussing the fate of our children.
We make the decision either consciously or accidentally.
Vogt was the first to put together, in modern form, the principal tenets of environmentalism, the twentieth century’s only successful, long-lasting ideology.
Vogt was the first to put together, in modern form, the principal tenets of environmentalism, the twentieth century’s only successful, long-lasting ideology.
The new religion.
climate change is odd man out. The other three elements (food, freshwater, energy supply) reflect human needs, whereas climate change is an unwanted consequence of satisfying those needs.
climate change is odd man out. The other three elements (food, freshwater, energy supply) reflect human needs, whereas climate change is an unwanted consequence of satisfying those needs.
What is the cost of progress?
a book about the future that makes no predictions.
a book about the future that makes no predictions.
Vogt and Borlaug are among the few who have some glimpse then of the magnitude of the tests that face our species today, as we move ever closer to 2050, when the world will hold 10 billion souls. But their understanding of how to resolve them differs, as do their views on their causes.
Vogt and Borlaug are among the few who have some glimpse then of the magnitude of the tests that face our species today, as we move ever closer to 2050, when the world will hold 10 billion souls. But their understanding of how to resolve them differs, as do their views on their causes.
The thesis and antithesis
Homo sapiens, she once told me, is an unusually successful species. And it is the fate of every successful species to wipe itself out—that is the way things work in biology. By “wipe itself out”
Homo sapiens, she once told me, is an unusually successful species. And it is the fate of every successful species to wipe itself out—that is the way things work in biology. By “wipe itself out”
Only when an unknown genius discovered naturally mutated grain plants that did not shatter—and purposefully selected, protected, and cultivated them—did true agriculture begin.
Only when an unknown genius discovered naturally mutated grain plants that did not shatter—and purposefully selected, protected, and cultivated them—did true agriculture begin.
It has been suggested that grasses have domesticated people rather than people domesticating grass.
In the early twentieth century, two German chemists, Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch, discovered the key steps to making synthetic fertilizer.
In the early twentieth century, two German chemists, Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch, discovered the key steps to making synthetic fertilizer.
In 2000, the chemist Paul Crutzen and the biologist Eugene Stoermer awarded a name to our time: the Anthropocene, the era in which Homo sapiens became a force operating on a planetary scale.
In 2000, the chemist Paul Crutzen and the biologist Eugene Stoermer awarded a name to our time: the Anthropocene, the era in which Homo sapiens became a force operating on a planetary scale.
Earth will again be a choir of microorganisms as it has been through most of its history.
Earth will again be a choir of microorganisms as it has been through most of its history.
the human race would have to do something deeply unnatural, something no other species has ever done or could ever do: constrain its own growth
the human race would have to do something deeply unnatural, something no other species has ever done or could ever do: constrain its own growth
From this standpoint, the answer to the question “Are we doomed to destroy ourselves?” is “Yes.” That we could be some sort of magical exception—it seems unscientific. Why should we be different? Is there any evidence that we are special?
From this standpoint, the answer to the question “Are we doomed to destroy ourselves?” is “Yes.” That we could be some sort of magical exception—it seems unscientific. Why should we be different? Is there any evidence that we are special?
Farmers have known for thousands of years that adding urine and feces, animal or human, to the soil helps crops to grow.
Farmers have known for thousands of years that adding urine and feces, animal or human, to the soil helps crops to grow.
I have long believed that manure is effective fertilizer because animals pee and poop in the same place.
It would bring him to the Prophet’s essential belief: humans have no special dispensation to escape biological constraints.
It would bring him to the Prophet’s essential belief: humans have no special dispensation to escape biological constraints.
In the end people are animals with the same limitations.
He came to think that ecosystems needed more to be protected from humans than managed by them—a stance that complicated his move, in 1933, to the University of Wisconsin at Madison, where he directed the first U.S. academic program in wildlife management.
He came to think that ecosystems needed more to be protected from humans than managed by them—a stance that complicated his move, in 1933, to the University of Wisconsin at Madison, where he directed the first U.S. academic program in wildlife management.
Also Leopold
The climax community was like a network of forces that canceled each other out, allowing the whole complex, diverse structure to maintain itself in rough equilibrium.
Climax community
The climax community was like a network of forces that canceled each other out, allowing the whole complex, diverse structure to maintain itself in rough equilibrium.
What was driving the destruction in the hemisphere, Vogt thought, was consumption. Ceaselessly striving to satisfy their needs, people were stripping nature bare.
What was driving the destruction in the hemisphere, Vogt thought, was consumption. Ceaselessly striving to satisfy their needs, people were stripping nature bare.
Vogt and Osborn were also the first to bring to a wide public a belief that would become a foundation of environmental thought: consumption driven by capitalism and rising human numbers is the ultimate cause of most of the world’s ecological problems, and only dramatic reductions in human fertility and economic activity will prevent a worldwide calamity.
Vogt and Osborn were also the first to bring to a wide public a belief that would become a foundation of environmental thought: consumption driven by capitalism and rising human numbers is the ultimate cause of most of the world’s ecological problems, and only dramatic reductions in human fertility and economic activity will prevent a worldwide calamity.
There are two ideas at the base of today’s globe-spanning environmental movement. One is that Homo sapiens, like every other species, is bound by biological laws. The second is that one of these laws is that no species can long exceed the environment’s carrying capacity.
There are two ideas at the base of today’s globe-spanning environmental movement. One is that Homo sapiens, like every other species, is bound by biological laws. The second is that one of these laws is that no species can long exceed the environment’s carrying capacity.
Was an environment’s biotic potential (and thus its maximum theoretical carrying capacity) a fixed, absolute limit, a value set by Nature, or was it a quantity that could change over time, and thus be influenced by people?
Was an environment’s biotic potential (and thus its maximum theoretical carrying capacity) a fixed, absolute limit, a value set by Nature, or was it a quantity that could change over time, and thus be influenced by people?
by the example of his life, the emblem of a way of thought—the Wizard’s way. His success would show, at least to Wizards, that science and technology, properly applied, could allow humankind to produce its way into a prosperous future.
by the example of his life, the emblem of a way of thought—the Wizard’s way. His success would show, at least to Wizards, that science and technology, properly applied, could allow humankind to produce its way into a prosperous future.
Both groups wrote reports documenting the same terrible poverty and eroded land, but their ideas about the remedy were starkly different. To Vogt, the basic problem was land degradation, and the primary cure was to ease the burden on the land. By contrast, the scientists believed that Mexico’s issues were caused, at bottom, by lack of knowledge and tools. The difference between these two approaches is profound, and at the heart of the split between Wizards and Prophets.
Both groups wrote reports documenting the same terrible poverty and eroded land, but their ideas about the remedy were starkly different. To Vogt, the basic problem was land degradation, and the primary cure was to ease the burden on the land. By contrast, the scientists believed that Mexico’s issues were caused, at bottom, by lack of knowledge and tools. The difference between these two approaches is profound, and at the heart of the split between Wizards and Prophets.
But the two men drew different conclusions from the same picture; they disagreed about which elements were figure and which were ground. Vogt saw the land behind and beneath as the protagonist of the story—the origin of both problem and solution. With his ecologist’s eye, he viewed the fundamental issue as one of carrying capacity. People, biological agents like any other, had to fit in.
But the two men drew different conclusions from the same picture; they disagreed about which elements were figure and which were ground. Vogt saw the land behind and beneath as the protagonist of the story—the origin of both problem and solution. With his ecologist’s eye, he viewed the fundamental issue as one of carrying capacity. People, biological agents like any other, had to fit in.
By contrast, Borlaug saw the farmers as the central characters. Their suffering was caused not by overshooting the capacity of the land but by their lack of tools and knowledge. With industrial fertilizer, advanced irrigation techniques, and the finest new seed stock, they could transform the landscape, making it more productive and themselves wealthy. Fitting in with their world would be a human catastrophe. Instead they needed to reconstruct that world on more useful principles.
By contrast, Borlaug saw the farmers as the central characters. Their suffering was caused not by overshooting the capacity of the land but by their lack of tools and knowledge. With industrial fertilizer, advanced irrigation techniques, and the finest new seed stock, they could transform the landscape, making it more productive and themselves wealthy. Fitting in with their world would be a human catastrophe. Instead they needed to reconstruct that world on more useful principles.
boffins
“If solar energy could be utilized with full efficiency, the United States alone could sustain, energy-wise, a population over 40 times the present total population of the planet.”
“If solar energy could be utilized with full efficiency, the United States alone could sustain, energy-wise, a population over 40 times the present total population of the planet.”
Does that presume that holding onto all that energy wouldn't cause global warming or does it presume that we will become smart enough to deal with it? One of the casualties of the Vietnam war as we lost confidence in our government's ability to help plan for the future.
Photosynthesis, Weaver said, “has an over-all efficiency surely less than 0.00025%”—one-quarter of one-thousandth of one percent!
Photosynthesis, Weaver said, “has an over-all efficiency surely less than 0.00025%”—one-quarter of one-thousandth of one percent!
Does beat solar cells on direct comparison but one does have to consider the cost of producing solar cells in terms of energy.
In agriculture, for instance, the fight over genetic engineering represents the extension of a dispute, surprisingly heated and now almost a century old, over a seemingly arcane question: the proper manner of providing nutrients, especially nitrogen, to plants. And this, in turn, is related to an even older struggle—a quarrel over the nature of life itself.
In agriculture, for instance, the fight over genetic engineering represents the extension of a dispute, surprisingly heated and now almost a century old, over a seemingly arcane question: the proper manner of providing nutrients, especially nitrogen, to plants. And this, in turn, is related to an even older struggle—a quarrel over the nature of life itself.
imagining that a special kind of immaterial energy flows through and sustains living tissues. Without this essence, a live body would be a mere mechanism, not an organism.
imagining that a special kind of immaterial energy flows through and sustains living tissues. Without this essence, a live body would be a mere mechanism, not an organism.
By contrast we now know that all in nature is made up of the same bits and pieces. The essential miracle is that they came to have a self perpetuating organization.
In his Agriculturae fundamenta chemica (1761), the first important treatise on the subject, Wallerius proclaimed that living creatures are driven by an internal energy unique to life.
In his Agriculturae fundamenta chemica (1761), the first important treatise on the subject, Wallerius proclaimed that living creatures are driven by an internal energy unique to life.
The contemporary scientific definition of energy is something all together different. Perhaps went Wallerius was referring to was the sense of self and goal direction.
Liebig’s Law of the Minimum: plants need many nutrients, but their growth rate is limited by the one least present in the soil.
Liebig’s Law of the Minimum: plants need many nutrients, but their growth rate is limited by the one least present in the soil.
Smarmy
Liebig envisioned a new kind of farming: agriculture as a branch of chemistry and physics. In this scheme, soil was just a base with the physical attributes necessary to hold roots. What mattered to agriculture were the chemical nutrients on which plant growth depended: nitrogen, potassium, phosphorus, calcium, and so on.
Liebig envisioned a new kind of farming: agriculture as a branch of chemistry and physics. In this scheme, soil was just a base with the physical attributes necessary to hold roots. What mattered to agriculture were the chemical nutrients on which plant growth depended: nitrogen, potassium, phosphorus, calcium, and so on.
Nitrates from Chile became a principal ingredient in packaged fertilizers—and, alas, bombs.
Nitrates from Chile became a principal ingredient in packaged fertilizers—and, alas, bombs.
For decades researchers had believed that if they could manufacture ammonia it could be used as the basis for a synthetic fertilizer—something
For decades researchers had believed that if they could manufacture ammonia it could be used as the basis for a synthetic fertilizer—
The German physicist Max von Laue put it neatly: Haber and Bosch made it possible to “win bread from air.”
The German physicist Max von Laue put it neatly: Haber and Bosch made it possible to “win bread from air.”
Today the Haber-Bosch process is responsible for almost all of the world’s synthetic fertilizer. A little more than 1 percent of the world’s industrial energy is devoted to it, as the futurist Ramez Naam has noted. Remarkable fact: “That 1 percent,” Naam says, “roughly doubles the amount of food the world can grow.”
Today the Haber-Bosch process is responsible for almost all of the world’s synthetic fertilizer. A little more than 1 percent of the world’s industrial energy is devoted to it, as the futurist Ramez Naam has noted. Remarkable fact: “That 1 percent,” Naam says, “roughly doubles the amount of food the world can grow.”
More than 3 billion men, women, and children—an incomprehensibly vast cloud of dreams, fears, and explorations—owe their existence to two early-twentieth-century German chemists.
More than 3 billion men, women, and children—an incomprehensibly vast cloud of dreams, fears, and explorations—owe their existence to two early-twentieth-century German chemists.
About 40 percent of the fertilizer applied in the last sixty years wasn’t assimilated by plants; instead, it washed away into rivers or seeped into the air in the form of nitrous oxide.
About 40 percent of the fertilizer applied in the last sixty years wasn’t assimilated by plants; instead, it washed away into rivers or seeped into the air in the form of nitrous oxide.
The total cost of unwanted nitrogen has been estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars a year. Were it not for climate change, suggests the science writer Oliver Morton, the spread of nitrogen’s empire would be our biggest ecological worry.*2
The total cost of unwanted nitrogen has been estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars a year. Were it not for climate change, suggests the science writer Oliver Morton, the spread of nitrogen’s empire would be our biggest ecological worry.*
McCarrison’s research, published in 1921, was an early example of a new scientific genre: the study of poor people in isolated places who live long, vigorous lives.
McCarrison’s research, published in 1921, was an early example of a new scientific genre: the study of poor people in isolated places who live long, vigorous lives.
In a set of lectures in 1936, McCarrison laid out what would become the ideology of the counterforce. “Perfectly constituted food,” McCarrison said, was the single biggest determinant of good health. The most important part of this perfectly constituted food was plants: fruits, vegetables, and whole grains. In turn, he said, the nutritive qualities of those plants depended on how they were cultivated.
In a set of lectures in 1936, McCarrison laid out what would become the ideology of the counterforce. “Perfectly constituted food,” McCarrison said, was the single biggest determinant of good health. The most important part of this perfectly constituted food was plants: fruits, vegetables, and whole grains. In turn, he said, the nutritive qualities of those plants depended on how they were cultivated.
To grow the best, most nutritious crops, farmers needed (to put it in modern terms) to view their land not as a store of chemicals to be managed efficiently but as a complexly interacting living system to be cherished and maintained. Every part of the system contributed to the whole, but one predominated: the soil.
To grow the best, most nutritious crops, farmers needed (to put it in modern terms) to view their land not as a store of chemicals to be managed efficiently but as a complexly interacting living system to be cherished and maintained. Every part of the system contributed to the whole, but one predominated: the soil.
The soil! The soil! When fed by plant remains and animal excrement, it became a vibrant, circulatory network that nourished the plants and animals which fed it. Rather than trying to replicate this system in the laboratory—an attempt doomed to fail—farmers should simply let the soil ecosystem create it naturally from humus, as Asian farmers had for millennia.
The soil! The soil! When fed by plant remains and animal excrement, it became a vibrant, circulatory network that nourished the plants and animals which fed it. Rather than trying to replicate this system in the laboratory—an attempt doomed to fail—farmers should simply let the soil ecosystem create it naturally from humus, as Asian farmers had for millennia.
