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March 5 - June 9, 2019
“The basis of all Nature’s farming,” he said, was the Law of Return: “the faithful return to the soil of all available vegetable, animal, and human wastes.”
“The basis of all Nature’s farming,” he said, was the Law of Return: “the faithful return to the soil of all available vegetable, animal, and human wastes.”
The Law of Return embodies an insight: everything affects everything else.
The Law of Return embodies an insight: everything affects everything else.
By splashing “organic” on a magazine cover, Rodale transformed it from a neutral word that meant relating to or derived from living creatures to a special label for the “life-giving” food that came from abjuring factory-made chemicals.
By splashing “organic” on a magazine cover, Rodale transformed it from a neutral word that meant relating to or derived from living creatures to a special label for the “life-giving” food that came from abjuring factory-made chemicals.
By 2050, researchers believe, it will have to happen all over again—a second Green Revolution for the world of 10 billion.
By 2050, researchers believe, it will have to happen all over again—a second Green Revolution for the world of 10 billion.
“What is unsure,” IRRI researcher Paul Quick told me not long ago, “is whether that additional demand can be met, and whether it can be met without undue environmental or economic cost.”
“What is unsure,” IRRI researcher Paul Quick told me not long ago, “is whether that additional demand can be met, and whether it can be met without undue environmental or economic cost.”
if tomorrow’s newly affluent billions are as carnivorous as Westerners today, the task facing tomorrow’s farmers will be huge. Between 1961 and 2014, the world’s meat production more than quadrupled. Simply reproducing that jump could easily require doubling the world’s grain harvest.
if tomorrow’s newly affluent billions are as carnivorous as Westerners today, the task facing tomorrow’s farmers will be huge. Between 1961 and 2014, the world’s meat production more than quadrupled. Simply reproducing that jump could easily require doubling the world’s grain harvest.
In the botanical equivalent of a moonshot, an international consortium of almost a hundred agricultural scientists is working to convert rice into a C4 plant—a rice that could grow faster, require less water and fertilizer, withstand higher temperatures, and produce more grain.
In the botanical equivalent of a moonshot, an international consortium of almost a hundred agricultural scientists is working to convert rice into a C4 plant—a rice that could grow faster, require less water and fertilizer, withstand higher temperatures, and produce more grain.
As a rule, GMOs have made life easier and cheaper for large-scale farmers in developed nations by reducing the costs of chemicals, labor, or storage. But they have provided few tangible gains for the middle-class folk in those nations who buy the farmers’ products in supermarkets. The food doesn’t look or smell or taste better; it doesn’t seem less expensive. Why should they accept any risk, no matter how small the white-coats claim them to be?
As a rule, GMOs have made life easier and cheaper for large-scale farmers in developed nations by reducing the costs of chemicals, labor, or storage. But they have provided few tangible gains for the middle-class folk in those nations who buy the farmers’ products in supermarkets. The food doesn’t look or smell or taste better; it doesn’t seem less expensive. Why should they accept any risk, no matter how small the white-coats claim them to be?
The action by which middle-class people refuse to take risks on behalf of rich companies becomes a way of blocking aspirations of the distant poor. Weighing the relative pluses and minuses is an exercise in morality that is outside the realm of science.
The action by which middle-class people refuse to take risks on behalf of rich companies becomes a way of blocking aspirations of the distant poor. Weighing the relative pluses and minuses is an exercise in morality that is outside the realm of science.
These have been called the paths of hard and soft water, and the choice between them will resonate in the lives of generations to come.
These have been called the paths of hard and soft water, and the choice between them will resonate in the lives of generations to come.
Lowdermilk got one big thing right: the Fertile Crescent had become a desert and a major cause was human incompetence with water.
Lowdermilk got one big thing right: the Fertile Crescent had become a desert and a major cause was human incompetence with water.
The soft path, by contrast, is something new. Decentralization, efficiency, and education are its hallmarks. It “draws all ‘new’ water from better use of existing supplies and changing habits and attitudes,”
The soft path, by contrast, is something new. Decentralization, efficiency, and education are its hallmarks. It “draws all ‘new’ water from better use of existing supplies and changing habits and attitudes,”
the Three R’s: reduce, reuse, and recycle.
the Three R’s: reduce, reuse, and recycle.
The hard path creates universal Wizardly solutions that do not depend on local conditions or knowledge. It leads quite naturally to broad fields of waving grain—visions of concentrated productivity. Societies that adopt the soft path will lead toward networks of smaller farms with drip irrigation and multiple crops—the inhabited, networked spaces preferred by Prophets. One values a kind of liberty; the other, a kind of community. One sees nature instrumentally, as a set of raw materials freely available for use; the other believes each ecosystem has an inner integrity and meaning that should
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The hard path creates universal Wizardly solutions that do not depend on local conditions or knowledge. It leads quite naturally to broad fields of waving grain—visions of concentrated productivity. Societies that adopt the soft path will lead toward networks of smaller farms with drip irrigation and multiple crops—the inhabited, networked spaces preferred by Prophets. One values a kind of liberty; the other, a kind of community. One sees nature instrumentally, as a set of raw materials freely available for use; the other believes each ecosystem has an inner integrity and meaning that should be preserved, even if it constrains human actions. The choices lead to radically different pictures of how to live. What looks like a dispute over practical matters is an argument of the heart.
I found it hard not to wonder whether our industrial era was not simply Pithole writ large: an evanescent surge of wealth, much of it squandered, doomed to end when the world’s fuel supply was consumed.
I found it hard not to wonder whether our industrial era was not simply Pithole writ large: an evanescent surge of wealth, much of it squandered, doomed to end when the world’s fuel supply was consumed.
Fossil fuels are ancient light.
Fossil fuels are ancient light.
“The average person in the world of 1800 was no better off than the average person of 100,000 B.C.,” writes the economic historian Gregory Clark of the University of California at Davis. “Indeed in 1800 the bulk of the world’s population was poorer than their distant ancestors.” The Industrial Revolution, driven by fossil fuels, changed that, possibly until the end of days.
“The average person in the world of 1800 was no better off than the average person of 100,000 B.C.,” writes the economic historian Gregory Clark of the University of California at Davis. “Indeed in 1800 the bulk of the world’s population was poorer than their distant ancestors.” The Industrial Revolution, driven by fossil fuels, changed that, possibly until the end of days.
“Coal is a portable climate,” Ralph Waldo Emerson marveled in 1860. “Every basket is power and civilization.”
“Coal is a portable climate,” Ralph Waldo Emerson marveled in 1860. “Every basket is power and civilization.”
One of the first and most enduring products of the age of fossil fuels was the fear that the age would rapidly end.
One of the first and most enduring products of the age of fossil fuels was the fear that the age would rapidly end.
Wizards support big, high-tech, centralized power plants based on concentrated energy sources (coal, oil, natural gas, uranium); Prophets place their hopes in small-scale, distributed, low-impact, neighborhood- and household-level facilities that harness diffuse forms of energy (sunlight, wind, geothermal heat).
Wizards support big, high-tech, centralized power plants based on concentrated energy sources (coal, oil, natural gas, uranium); Prophets place their hopes in small-scale, distributed, low-impact, neighborhood-and household-level facilities that harness diffuse forms of energy (sunlight, wind, geothermal heat).
Far too often, we have been told that the future will be wracked by crises of energy scarcity, when the problems our children will face will be due to its abundance.
Far too often, we have been told that the future will be wracked by crises of energy scarcity, when the problems our children will face will be due to its abundance.
President Theodore Roosevelt in 1908 invited all forty-six U.S. governors to the White House to decry the “imminent exhaustion” of fossil fuels and other natural resources—“the weightiest problem now before the nation.”
President Theodore Roosevelt in 1908 invited all forty-six U.S. governors to the White House to decry the “imminent exhaustion” of fossil fuels and other natural resources—“ the weightiest problem now before the nation.”
Driven by the recurrent panic of peak oil, it sometimes seems as fundamental to the structure of global relations as the law of gravitation is to the rotation of Earth around the sun.
Driven by the recurrent panic of peak oil, it sometimes seems as fundamental to the structure of global relations as the law of gravitation is to the rotation of Earth around the sun.
Economically speaking, the advantages of Wizard-style, hard-path centralization and scale were so overwhelming that until recently efforts to promulgate Prophet-style distributed power systems almost vanished.
Economically speaking, the advantages of Wizard-style, hard-path centralization and scale were so overwhelming that until recently efforts to promulgate Prophet-style distributed power systems almost vanished.
Solar research had been the product of anxiety about fossil fuels. When the anxiety faded, so did the interest.
Solar research had been the product of anxiety about fossil fuels. When the anxiety faded, so did the interest.
Politicians and economists who argued for perpetual economic growth were deluded, Hubbert said. The population of the United States would hit a maximum “of probably not more than 135,000,000 people” in the 1950s, and after that the nation simply would not contain enough new consumers to need more consumer products. Hoodwinked by the fantasy of continuing growth, the ruling class had lost sight of these basic scientific realities. They were rushing toward inevitable disaster—after which they would be replaced, thank Heaven, by an elite corps of eco-engineering mandarins with the technical
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Politicians and economists who argued for perpetual economic growth were deluded, Hubbert said. The population of the United States would hit a maximum “of probably not more than 135,000,000 people” in the 1950s, and after that the nation simply would not contain enough new consumers to need more consumer products. Hoodwinked by the fantasy of continuing growth, the ruling class had lost sight of these basic scientific realities. They were rushing toward inevitable disaster—after which they would be replaced, thank Heaven, by an elite corps of eco-engineering mandarins with the technical know-how
Every second, the sun bathes Earth with 172,500 terawatts of energy. (A terawatt—a trillion watts—is the biggest energy unit in common use.)
Every second, the sun bathes Earth with 172,500 terawatts of energy. (A terawatt—a trillion watts—is the biggest energy unit in common use.)
About a third of this prodigious flow is promptly reflected into space, mainly by clouds. The leftover—roughly 113,000 terawatts, depending on cloud cover—is available for capture. All human enterprises together now use a bit less than 18 terawatts.
About a third of this prodigious flow is promptly reflected into space, mainly by clouds. The leftover—roughly 113,000 terawatts, depending on cloud cover—is available for capture. All human enterprises together now use a bit less than 18 terawatts.
the sun furnishes more than six thousand times the energy produced today by all of our power plants, engines, factories, furnaces, and fires combined.
the sun furnishes more than six thousand times the energy produced today by all of our power plants, engines, factories, furnaces, and fires combined.
Prophets see the mile-long stands of photovoltaic cells in projects like Charanka as inherently destructive to communities, natural and human. Industrial giantism is the problem, in their view, not the solution.
Prophets see the mile-long stands of photovoltaic cells in projects like Charanka as inherently destructive to communities, natural and human. Industrial giantism is the problem, in their view, not the solution.
To Margulis, the Great Oxidation Event had lessons for today. The first was that people who thought that living creatures couldn’t affect the climate had no idea of the power of life. The second was that the onset of climate change meant that Homo sapiens was getting into the biological big leagues—we were tiptoeing into the terrain of bacteria, algae, and other truly important creatures. The third was that species, like sullen teenagers, don’t pick up after themselves. Cyanobacteria sprayed their oxygen garbage all over Earth without concern for the consequences—littering on an epic scale.
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To Margulis, the Great Oxidation Event had lessons for today. The first was that people who thought that living creatures couldn’t affect the climate had no idea of the power of life. The second was that the onset of climate change meant that Homo sapiens was getting into the biological big leagues—we were tiptoeing into the terrain of bacteria, algae, and other truly important creatures. The third was that species, like sullen teenagers, don’t pick up after themselves. Cyanobacteria sprayed their oxygen garbage all over Earth without concern for the consequences—littering on an epic scale. People were doing the same with carbon dioxide.
If it is the fate of every successful species to wipe itself out, climate change looked to Margulis like a plausible candidate for the method by which Homo sapiens would achieve that end. The upside, she told me, was that the impacts would be relatively confined and short-lived. In a few millennia, the world would look much the same, except that people probably wouldn’t be living in it.
If it is the fate of every successful species to wipe itself out, climate change looked to Margulis like a plausible candidate for the method by which Homo sapiens would achieve that end. The upside, she told me, was that the impacts would be relatively confined and short-lived. In a few millennia, the world would look much the same, except that people probably wouldn’t be living in it.
Four decades of additional research has not brought us closer to predicting the precise impact of dumping carbon dioxide into the air.
Four decades of additional research has not brought us closer to predicting the precise impact of dumping carbon dioxide into the air.
Sometime before the end of this century, if nothing changes, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere will double from its pre-industrial level. If doubling carbon dioxide levels leads to a 2.7°F average temperature increase—the lower bound of the climate-sensitivity estimate—then the world has many decades to cut fossil-fuel use sharply. Societies can take their time and move carefully. But if doubling carbon dioxide levels causes a rise of 8.1°F, the transition must be much faster—a disruptive slam-down of the brakes. The two courses are completely different. What should societies
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Sometime before the end of this century, if nothing changes, the carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere will double from its pre-industrial level. If doubling carbon dioxide levels leads to a 2.7 ° F average temperature increase—the lower bound of the climate-sensitivity estimate—then the world has many decades to cut fossil-fuel use sharply. Societies can take their time and move carefully. But if doubling carbon dioxide levels causes a rise of 8.1 ° F, the transition must be much faster—a disruptive slam-down of the brakes. The two courses are completely different. What should societies do?
a typical methane molecule will only remain in the atmosphere for ten to twenty years. Carbon dioxide molecules, by contrast, will keep floating about for centuries, even millennia. They are a problem that doesn’t go away.
a typical methane molecule will only remain in the atmosphere for ten to twenty years. Carbon dioxide molecules, by contrast, will keep floating about for centuries, even millennia. They are a problem that doesn’t go away.
Fix coal, the idea is, then go, if needed, to the next thing. That’s the way to insure against the small but real possibility of catastrophe.
Fix coal, the idea is, then go, if needed, to the next thing. That’s the way to insure against the small but real possibility of catastrophe.
“carbon capture and storage,” or CCS.
“carbon capture and storage,” or CCS.
carbon capture will gobble 10 to 15 percent of a power plant’s output.
carbon capture will gobble 10 to 15 percent of a power plant’s output.
Mitigating the environmental costs of digging up and burning coal in this way means digging up and burning even more coal.
Mitigating the environmental costs of digging up and burning coal in this way means digging up and burning even more coal.
Wizards typically believe that a big increase in coal would be a mistake. But the answer is not to leave the hard path, but to improve it by going nuclear.
Wizards typically believe that a big increase in coal would be a mistake. But the answer is not to leave the hard path, but to improve it by going nuclear.
Equip the most efficient existing coal facilities with CCS, but go nuclear for everything else.*12
Equip the most efficient existing coal facilities with CCS, but go nuclear for everything else.*
The 'wizard' argument.
Pinatubo offset that 1°F of warming with about 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide. Doing the arithmetic again, sulfur dioxide is, molecule by molecule, more than fifty thousand times more effective at lowering temperatures than carbon dioxide is at raising them.
Pinatubo offset that 1 ° F of warming with about 20 million tons of sulfur dioxide. Doing the arithmetic again, sulfur dioxide is, molecule by molecule, more than fifty thousand times more effective at lowering temperatures than carbon dioxide is at raising them.
Geoengineering fights climate change with more climate change. It is, in the jargon, a “technical fix.”
Geoengineering fights climate change with more climate change. It is, in the jargon, a “technical fix.”
Tinkering with the atmosphere, in the phrase of the writer Eli Kintisch, may be a bad idea whose time has come.
Tinkering with the atmosphere, in the phrase of the writer Eli Kintisch, may be a bad idea whose time has come.
Geoengineering may reduce temperatures globally, but there will still be local losers and winners—places that experience too much or too little rainfall, places subject to sudden temperature extremes. And no matter how much sulfur dioxide humankind throws into the heavens, the carbon dioxide will remain; to counteract the ever-increasing total, more sulfur must be launched into the air every year. Indeed, stopping it suddenly would be disastrous; all the hidden-away warming would emerge in a few months.
Geoengineering may reduce temperatures globally, but there will still be local losers and winners—places that experience too much or too little rainfall, places subject to sudden temperature extremes. And no matter how much sulfur dioxide humankind throws into the heavens, the carbon dioxide will remain; to counteract the ever-increasing total, more sulfur must be launched into the air every year. Indeed, stopping it suddenly would be disastrous; all the hidden-away warming would emerge in a few months.
Why not create a new Carboniferous by covering the two biggest deserts in the world—the Sahara and the Australian outback—with trees?
Why not create a new Carboniferous by covering the two biggest deserts in the world—the Sahara and the Australian outback—with trees?
Studies suggest that trees could provide enough power to provide their water—they would be, so to speak, sustainable.
Studies suggest that trees could provide enough power to provide their water—they would be, so to speak, sustainable.
Claims that carbon capture cannot be economically viable or that renewables will always cost too much or use too much land generally amount to saying, I prefer the unknown risks associated with this course rather than the unknown risks associated with that course because the first leads to a future that I like better. At bottom, the choices stem from private images of the good life—a life in which people are tied to the land or free to roam the skies.
Claims that carbon capture cannot be economically viable or that renewables will always cost too much or use too much land generally amount to saying, I prefer the unknown risks associated with this course rather than the unknown risks associated with that course because the first leads to a future that I like better. At bottom, the choices stem from private images of the good life—a life in which people are tied to the land or free to roam the skies.
Wizards and Prophets mostly agree on energy conservation—making buildings, vehicles, and machinery waste less energy. For this reason I don’t discuss it, but efficiency is key to any climate strategy. The more energy you don’t use, the less you need to convert from fossil fuels.
Wizards and Prophets mostly agree on energy conservation—making buildings, vehicles, and machinery waste less energy. For this reason I don’t discuss it, but efficiency is key to any climate strategy. The more energy you don’t use, the less you need to convert from fossil fuels.
Between 1960 and 2000, wheat harvests in developing countries tripled. Rice harvests doubled. Maize harvests more than doubled. The extra food, Borlaug said, was why the population could increase while the proportion of hungry people went down.
Between 1960 and 2000, wheat harvests in developing countries tripled. Rice harvests doubled. Maize harvests more than doubled. The extra food, Borlaug said, was why the population could increase while the proportion of hungry people went down.
