The Wizard and the Prophet: Two Remarkable Scientists and Their Dueling Visions to Shape Tomorrow's World

by Charles C. Mann

Because humankind owed its existence to the same processes that produced every other organism, Darwin implied, Homo sapiens was a species like any other species. This new Copernican Revolution was what had attracted Wilberforce’s ire.

Because humankind owed its existence to the same processes that produced every other organism, Darwin implied, Homo sapiens was a species like any other species. This new Copernican Revolution was what had attracted Wilberforce’s ire.

(The “great question,” the great conservationist George Perkins Marsh called it a few years later: “whether man is of nature or above her.”)

(The “great question,” the great conservationist George Perkins Marsh called it a few years later: “whether man is of nature or above her.”)

But now that science and technology have allowed the human enterprise to risk its own survival, the partisans of hope have stepped back from some of Huxley’s implications. Wizards and Prophets each have a separate blueprint for the future. But both assume that Wilberforce, not Huxley, was correct—that human beings are special creatures who can escape the fate of other successful species.

But now that science and technology have allowed the human enterprise to risk its own survival, the partisans of hope have stepped back from some of Huxley’s implications. Wizards and Prophets each have a separate blueprint for the future. But both assume that Wilberforce, not Huxley, was correct—that human beings are special creatures who can escape the fate of other successful species.

The lily reproduces slowly enough that it never overwhelms its environment. It never hits the edge of the petri dish.

The lily reproduces slowly enough that it never overwhelms its environment. It never hits the edge of the petri dish.

Germany lost a greater percentage of its people to violence in the seventeenth century than in the twentieth, despite the intervening advances in the technology of slaughter, despite being governed for more than a decade by maniacs who systematically murdered millions of their fellow citizens.

Germany lost a greater percentage of its people to violence in the seventeenth century than in the twentieth, despite the intervening advances in the technology of slaughter, despite being governed for more than a decade by maniacs who systematically murdered millions of their fellow citizens.

Preventing Homo sapiens from destroying itself à la Gause would require a still greater transformation, to Margulis’s way of thinking, because we would be pushing against Nature itself. Success would be unprecedented, biologically speaking. It would be a reverse Copernican Revolution, showing that humankind is exempt from natural processes that govern all other species. But might we be able to do exactly that? Might Margulis have got this one wrong? Might we indeed be special?

Preventing Homo sapiens from destroying itself à la Gause would require a still greater transformation, to Margulis’s way of thinking, because we would be pushing against Nature itself. Success would be unprecedented, biologically speaking. It would be a reverse Copernican Revolution, showing that humankind is exempt from natural processes that govern all other species. But might we be able to do exactly that? Might Margulis have got this one wrong? Might we indeed be special?

Wizards and Prophets both believe that Margulis is wrong—that Crusoe and the others would have gained enough knowledge to save themselves. They would have either used this knowledge to create technology to soar beyond natural constraints (as Wizards hope) or changed their survival strategy from expanding their presence to living in a steady-state accommodation with what the island offered (as Prophets wish).

Wizards and Prophets both believe that Margulis is wrong—that Crusoe and the others would have gained enough knowledge to save themselves. They would have either used this knowledge to create technology to soar beyond natural constraints (as Wizards hope) or changed their survival strategy from expanding their presence to living in a steady-state accommodation with what the island offered (as Prophets wish). This would seem to be the central question contemplated by this book - will people be wise enough to overcome the limits nature imposes on other species or will we find a pathway to a new fate.

But it would be useful if the discussion moved from the safety of GMOs, almost a nonissue, to the actual object of contention: whether the current version of industrial agriculture can, with the addition of new technologies, provide for the world of 10 billion in a long-lasting way—or if the perils involved (ecological, economic, spiritual) are large enough to require it to be radically revamped.

But it would be useful if the discussion moved from the safety of GMOs, almost a nonissue, to the actual object of contention: whether the current version of industrial agriculture can, with the addition of new technologies, provide for the world of 10 billion in a long-lasting way—or if the perils involved (ecological, economic, spiritual) are large enough to require it to be radically revamped.