Sherman Kent suggested a solution. First, the word “possible” should be reserved for important matters where analysts have to make a judgment but can’t reasonably assign any probability. So something that is “possible” has a likelihood ranging from almost zero to almost 100%. Of course that’s not helpful, so analysts should narrow the range of their estimates whenever they can. And to avoid confusion, the terms they use should have designated numerical meanings, which Kent set out in a chart.13 CERTAINTY THE GENERAL AREA OF POSSIBILITY 100% Certain 93% (give or take about 6%) Almost certain
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