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The one undeniable talent that talking heads have is their skill at telling a compelling story with conviction, and that is enough. Many have become wealthy peddling forecasting of untested value to corporate executives, government officials, and ordinary people who would never think of swallowing medicine of unknown efficacy and safety but who routinely pay for forecasts that are as dubious as elixirs sold from the back of a wagon.
In a world where a butterfly in Brazil can make the difference between just another sunny day in Texas and a tornado tearing through a town, it’s misguided to think anyone can see very far into the future.
How predictable something is depends on what we are trying to predict, how far into the future, and under what circumstances.
Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person.
superforecasting demands thinking that is open-minded, careful, curious, and—above all—self-critical. It also demands focus. The kind of thinking that produces superior judgment does not come effortlessly. Only the determined can deliver it reasonably consistently, which is why our analyses have consistently found commitment to self-improvement to be the strongest predictor of performance.
In ancient Mesopotamia, did the treatments of the Keeper of the Royal Rectum actually keep royal rectums healthy?
Scientists must be able to answer the question “What would convince me I am wrong?” If they can’t, it’s a sign they have grown too attached to their beliefs. The key is doubt.
But then the train of history hit a curve, and as Karl Marx once quipped, when that happens, the intellectuals fall off.
"When the train of history hits a curve, the intellectuals fall off. " (Marx?)
Sherman Kent suggested a solution. First, the word “possible” should be reserved for important matters where analysts have to make a judgment but can’t reasonably assign any probability. So something that is “possible” has a likelihood ranging from almost zero to almost 100%. Of course that’s not helpful, so analysts should narrow the range of their estimates whenever they can. And to avoid confusion, the terms they use should have designated numerical meanings, which Kent set out in a chart.13 CERTAINTY THE GENERAL AREA OF POSSIBILITY 100% Certain 93% (give or take about 6%) Almost certain
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The math behind this system was developed by Glenn W. Brier in 1950, hence results are called Brier scores. In effect, Brier scores measure the distance between what you forecast and what actually happened. So Brier scores are like golf scores: lower is better. Perfection is 0.
the right test of skill would be whether a forecaster can do better than mindlessly predicting no change. This is an underappreciated point.
an inverse correlation between fame and accuracy: the more famous an expert was, the less accurate he was.
For superforecasters, beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be guarded.
In the Kurt Vonnegut classic Slaughterhouse-Five, an American prisoner of war muttered something a guard did not like. “The guard knew English, and he hauled the American out of ranks, knocked him down,” Vonnegut wrote. The American was astonished. He stood up shakily, spitting blood. He’ d had two teeth knocked out. He had meant no harm by what he’d said, evidently, had no idea that the guard would hear and understand. “Why me?” he asked the guard. The guard shoved him back in ranks. “Vy you? Vy anybody?” he said. Vonnegut drums this theme relentlessly. “Why me?” moans Billy Pilgrim when he
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“When the facts change, I change my mind
Stock prices do not always reflect the true value of companies, so an investor should study a company thoroughly and really understand its business, capital, and management when deciding whether it had sufficient underlying value to make an investment for the long term worthwhile.
The one consistent belief of the “consistently inconsistent” John Maynard Keynes was that he could do better. Failure did not mean he had reached the limits of his ability. It meant he had to think hard and give it another go. Try, fail, analyze, adjust, try again: Keynes cycled through those steps ceaselessly. Keynes operated on a higher plane than most of us, but that process—try, fail, analyze, adjust, try again—is fundamental to how all of us learn,
But not all practice improves skill. It needs to be informed practice. You need to know which mistakes to look out for—and which best practices really are best. So don’t burn your books.
rough composite portrait of the modal superforecaster. In philosophic outlook, they tend to be: CAUTIOUS: Nothing is certain HUMBLE: Reality is infinitely complex NONDETERMINISTIC: What happens is not meant to be and does not have to happen In their abilities and thinking styles, they tend to be: ACTIVELY OPEN-MINDED: Beliefs are hypotheses to be tested, not treasures to be protected INTELLIGENT AND KNOWLEDGEABLE, WITH A “NEED FOR COGNITION”: Intellectually curious, enjoy puzzles and mental challenges REFLECTIVE: Introspective and self-critical NUMERATE: Comfortable with numbers In their
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Skills to add to your LinkedIn profile :-)
“beyond the bumper sticker, what do you do to prepare for that?
As J. M. Keynes is reputed to have said but did not, “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?
If you like what you’ve read about superforecasters and the Good Judgment Project, please consider joining us. You’ll be improving your own forecasting skills and helping science at the same time. You can learn more at www.goodjudgment.com.
Ten Commandments for Aspiring Superforecasters The guidelines sketched here distill key themes in this book and in training systems that have been experimentally demonstrated to boost accuracy in real-world forecasting contests. For more details, visit www.goodjudgment.com.
