would invade. In March 1951 National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) 29-51 was published. “Although it is impossible to determine which course of action the Kremlin is likely to adopt,” the report concluded, “we believe that the extent of [Eastern European] military and propaganda preparations indicates that an attack on Yugoslavia in 1951 should be considered a serious possibility.” By most standards, that is clear, meaningful language. No one suggested otherwise when the estimate was published and read by top officials throughout the government. But a few days later, Kent was chatting with a
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