To grasp the meaning of “a 70% chance of rain tomorrow” we have to understand that rain may or may not happen, and that over 100 days on which we forecast chances of rain, if our forecasts are good, it should rain on 70% of them and be dry on the rest. Nothing could be further removed from our natural inclination to think “It will rain” or “It won’t rain”—or, if you insist, “Maybe it will rain.”
