In the late 1980s I worked out a methodology and conducted what was, at the time, the biggest test of expert political forecasting accuracy ever. One result, delivered many years later, was the punch line that now makes me squirm. But another discovery of that research didn’t receive nearly as much attention even though it was far more important: one group of experts had modest but real foresight. What made the difference between the experts with foresight and those who were so hopeless they dragged the average down to the level of a dart-throwing chimp? It wasn’t some mystical gift or access
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