There is no moat and no castle wall. While superforecasters do occasionally deploy their own explicit math models, or consult other people’s, that’s rare. The great majority of their forecasts are simply the product of careful thought and nuanced judgment. “I can think of a couple of questions where a little bit of math was useful,” Lionel Levine recalled about his own forecasting, but otherwise he relies on subjective judgment. “It’s all, you know, balancing, finding relevant information and deciding how relevant is this really? How much should it really affect my forecast?
