Yet these are ordinary people. Forecasting is their hobby. Their only reward is a gift certificate and bragging rights on Facebook. Why do they put so much into it? One answer is it’s fun. “Need for cognition” is the psychological term for the tendency to engage in and enjoy hard mental slogs. People high in need for cognition are the sort who like crosswords and Sudoku puzzles, the harder, the better—and superforecasters score high in need-for-cognition tests.
