Superforecasters do monitor the news carefully and factor it into their forecasts, which is bound to give them a big advantage over the less attentive. If that’s the decisive factor, then superforecasters’ success would tell us nothing more than “it helps to pay attention and keep your forecast up to date”—which is about as enlightening as being told that when polls show a candidate surging into a comfortable lead he is more likely to win. But that’s not the whole story. For one thing, superforecasters’ initial forecasts were at least 50% more accurate than those of regular forecasters. Even
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