Ian Pitchford

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In the first year, Doug answered 104 questions like “Will Serbia be officially granted European Union candidacy by 31 December 2011?” and “Will the London Gold Market Fixing price of gold (USD per ounce) exceed $1,850 on 30 September 2011?” That’s a lot of forecasting, but it understates what Doug did.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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