All of this suggests two key conclusions. One, we should not treat the superstars of any given year as infallible, not even Doug Lorch. Luck plays a role and it is only to be expected that the superstars will occasionally have a bad year and produce ordinary results—just as superstar athletes occasionally look less than stellar. But more basically, and more hopefully, we can conclude that the superforecasters were not just lucky. Mostly, their results reflected skill. Which raises the big question: Why are superforecasters so good?
