Levine is also a superforecaster. And while he is an extreme case, he underscores a central feature of superforecasters: they have a way with numbers. Most aced a brief test of basic numeracy that asked questions like, “The chance of getting a viral infection is 0.05%. Out of 10,000 people, about how many of them are expected to get infected?” (The answer is 5.) And numeracy is just as evident on their résumés. Many have backgrounds in math, science, or computer programming.
