The figure on top represents perfect calibration but poor resolution. It’s perfect calibration because when the forecaster says there is a 40% chance something will happen, it happens 40% of the time, and when she says there is a 60% chance something will happen, it happens 60% of the time. But it’s poor resolution because the forecaster never strays out of the minor-shades-of-maybe zone between 40% and 60%.
