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Of course we aren’t always oblivious to the machinations of our minds. If someone asks about climate change, we may say, “I have no training in climatology and haven’t read any of the science. If I tried to answer based on what I know I’d make a mess of it. The knowledgeable people are the climatologists. So I’ll substitute ‘Do most climatologists think climate change is real?’ for ‘Is climate change real?’” An ordinary person told by an eminent cancer specialist that she has terminal cancer may engage in the same conscious bait and switch and just accept what the doctor says as true.
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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