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Flynn saw mountains of bad news on his desk every day, and his conclusion felt right—so That Was All There Was. As a lifelong intelligence officer, Flynn knew the importance of checking assumptions, no matter how true they feel, but he didn’t because it didn’t feel like an assumption. It felt true. It’s the oldest trick in the psychological book and Flynn fell for it. I am not belittling Michael Flynn. Quite the opposite: the fact that a man so accomplished made so obvious an error is precisely what makes the error notable. We are all vulnerable. And there’s no way to make ourselves ...more
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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