Thinking like Fermi, Bill unpacked the question by asking himself “What would it take for the answer to be yes? What would it take for it to be no?” He realized that the first step of his analysis had nothing to do with politics. Polonium decays quickly. For the answer to be yes, scientists would have to be able to detect polonium on the remains of a man dead for years. Could they? A teammate had posted a link to the Swiss team’s report on the testing of Arafat’s possessions, so Bill read it, familiarized himself with the science of polonium testing, and was satisfied that they could do it.
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