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And there is a mistake here. Did you catch it? Read the question again: “Will either the French or Swiss inquiries find elevated levels of polonium in the remains of Yasser Arafat’s body?” Neither “Israel would never do that!” nor “Of course Israel did it!” is actually responsive to that question. They answer a different question: “Did Israel poison Yasser Arafat?” System 1 pulled a classic bait and switch:
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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