Rnicholson95

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“But the conclusion wasn’t reasonable,” you may think. “It was wrong!” That reaction is totally understandable—but it too is wrong. Remember, the question is not “Was the IC’s judgment correct?” It is “Was the IC’s judgment reasonable?” Answering that question requires putting ourselves in the position of the people making the judgment at the time, which means looking at only the information available then, and that evidence was sufficient to lead virtually every major intelligence agency on the planet to suspect,
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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