So it seems intelligence and knowledge help but they add little beyond a certain threshold—so superforecasting does not require a Harvard PhD and the ability to speak five languages. I find that conclusion satisfying because it squares nicely with the hunch Daniel Kahneman shared with me all those years ago, when I started this research—that high-powered subject-matter experts would not be much better forecasters than attentive readers of the New York Times. It should also satisfy the reader. If you’ve made it this far, you’ve probably got the right stuff.
