So if the National Intelligence Estimate said something is “probable,” it would mean a 63% to 87% chance it would happen. Kent’s scheme was simple—and it greatly reduced the room for confusion. But it was never adopted. People liked clarity and precision in principle but when it came time to make clear and precise forecasts they weren’t so keen on numbers. Some said it felt unnatural or awkward, which it does when you’ve spent a lifetime using vague language, but that’s a weak argument against change.
