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As it turned out, there was only one perpetrator. His name is Anders Breivik. He isn’t Muslim. He hates Muslims. Breivik’s attacks were aimed at a government that he felt had betrayed Norway with its multiculturalist policies. After Breivik’s arrest, many people accused those who had rushed to judgment of Islamophobia, and not without reason, as some of them had seemed all too eager to blame Muslims in general. But given the few facts known at the time, and the history of mass-atrocity terrorism in the preceding decade, it was reasonable to suspect Islamist terrorists. A scientist would ...more
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
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